One game in D1 I shoot 12 out of 29, lose the game, on DIII I shoot 12 out of 25, almost lose the game. Is it me or there is something strange with this?

On my D1 game, both team have a C+ average, he shoots 22 out of 28...

take a coin and toss it ten times.  When 7 of 10 are either heads or tails call US Mint about defective coin.

Smile!

;-)

I do think FT shooting is somehow more variable than other stats.  That may be because we notice results in small sample sizes - the box score shows it to us.  Or maybe it is programmed to be more volatile - more dispersal of results.  I dont know.  I suppose one could analyze that data - but one would need to be more facile with stats than I am - and more diligent!

A few years ago with my Army team I had a B level FT Shooting team.  I missed 30 (!!!!!) FT's and lost my upset bid against UCONN in the NT by 2 points.

From that day forward, I've never even considered FT stats.

I've found stamina has a huge impact on free throw shooting. Since the other team was playing a FCP in your 12-29 game, that may have had something to do with it. Also, 29 is a very small sample size when compared to getting a more accurate reading by taking hundreds of free throws.

Opinion and observation- FT shooting is the primary device for WIS to generate outlier results. It is much more variable than warranted.

Posted by fd343ny on 4/27/2015 8:27:00 AM (view original):
take a coin and toss it ten times.  When 7 of 10 are either heads or tails call US Mint about defective coin.

I don't think that's an accurate comparison. Free throw shooting is a skill flipping a coin is just random.

A skill which in this game is reduced to a weighted coin flip

as a distinguished member of the board once said "you either win or lose, its 50-50"

Posted by mikvitu on 4/27/2015 4:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by fd343ny on 4/27/2015 8:27:00 AM (view original):
take a coin and toss it ten times.  When 7 of 10 are either heads or tails call US Mint about defective coin.

I don't think that's an accurate comparison. Free throw shooting is a skill flipping a coin is just random.

Yes it is a skill, but still subject to percentages. Even Larry Bird once missed 6 straight free throws.

Posted by tarvolon on 4/27/2015 5:16:00 PM (view original):
A skill which in this game is reduced to a weighted coin flip

Every thing that happens is just this .. a weighted coin flip.

The bottom line is, for example, if you have a 70% chance of making the free throw, they "roll" a random number and if it is > 70, you miss.

Its the same for making a shot, getting an offensive rebound, blocking a shot, etc.

That means in the game with small sample sizes anything can happen.

Also, you can't say the team Averages a C+ .. you would need to look at each player's rating when he is shooting.  If all your bench guys are A+ and all your starters are D .. well, for most of the game you are shooting with D guys from the line.