Just and my first experience with the new "fuzzy" system of scouting that WIS promised in the last update.

I saw an IFA with a projected stamina of 1. I made a joke about him getting tired from his warmup tosses in the chat page, and I found out that another owner also saw him at 1 also. But a different guy said he projected to 17. Since the guy was only asking for $50k, I went ahead and signed him:

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=7340276

(Sorry for the pasted link; I'm on an iPhone)

His actual stamina is 7. It's interesting, because that kind of fuzziness - where the actual rating is better than the projection - couldnt have happened before. By the way, I have $14 in intl scouting.

His effectiveness vR is also higher than projections. Currently 40, originally projected at 34.

Interesting. With $14m in scouting. I wonder if $20m scouting would give accurate projections? Or if $0m in scouting would give you the same projections as your $14m.

This fuzziness makes me want to spend LESS on scouting instead of more. It sounds like it is going to be more of a crapshoot than it was before. I'm still trying to decide how I'm going to adjust my ADV Scouting strategy.

>> that kind of fuzziness - where the actual rating is better than the projection - couldnt have happened before <<

It's not common, but actual ratings could be better than projections for as long as I've been playing.

I also think it's notable that this guy only went for $50k. He looks like a player who might've gone for $300-400k in the past. The low price makes it worthwhile to sign guys like him. He'll never make the majors, but he could give me 40-50 quality innings at AA someday.

Posted by bjschumacher on 6/16/2015 6:40:00 PM (view original):
Interesting. With $14m in scouting. I wonder if $20m scouting would give accurate projections? Or if $0m in scouting would give you the same projections as your $14m.

The more you spend on scouting, the less variance from "true" projections you will see. And vice versa. The same as it's always been.

Posted by tecwrg on 6/16/2015 7:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bjschumacher on 6/16/2015 6:40:00 PM (view original):
Interesting. With $14m in scouting. I wonder if $20m scouting would give accurate projections? Or if $0m in scouting would give you the same projections as your $14m.

The more you spend on scouting, the less variance from "true" projections you will see. And vice versa. The same as it's always been.

SAME AS IT EVER WAS.. Geez.

This is no different then ever. You could spend $20 million on scouting and WIS could say 'for sure, your guy will reach his projections.' Then he gets mismanaged in the minors and goes down for 2 elbow surgeries with 8 million in training and medical and all of the sudden your guy with a overall projection of 81 is lucky if he ever reaches 75.

Other then always giving a very fuzzy outlier, projections are useless IMO.

I was hoping for 'fuzzy' being something completely different, like an 'A - F' system where A was 90+. Pretty sure that was mentioned before, probably a Mike thing.
I would like that kind of fuzz.

If "fuzzier" projections means more likelihood of underestimating projections (it always has felt that fuzzy projections were overestimated), then that's a good thing. Equal likelihood of being off in either direction.

Posted by tecwrg on 6/17/2015 8:25:00 AM (view original):
If "fuzzier" projections means more likelihood of underestimating projections (it always has felt that fuzzy projections were overestimated), then that's a good thing. Equal likelihood of being off in either direction.

I think this is spot on.

I can't say I ever remember seeing projections that were too low before the update.

Much more realistic imo.

I can't prove this yet, but I also think there will be a wider range of estimates. I mentioned earlier that one person saw this guy's stamina as 17, while others saw 1. That's a pretty big range of variance, which is what I'm thinking they meant by "fuzzy." So I agree that higher scouting will lead to better estimates, and it looks like the penalty for lower scouting might be greater.

This will be very important for owners who like to build their franchise through the amateur draft. IFA scouting...maybe not so much.

IFAs are the same.

The projections are wildly scattered, especially the lower you go in INTL Scouting. 

But yeah most people going after IFAs already have it kicked up a bit to ensure seeing enough...