Actually, Tampa has a decent chance of earning an at-large, as long as you beat Barry.
You have a few things in your favor.
(I happen to be in Crum, so I can check out the standings etc).
1. There are only 2 conferences whose best team is below you in the Projection Report, that will grab an NT bid:
- Central Atlantic
- ECC
2. Your first round opponent at this point is a solid Barry team, followed by a good Eckerd team. Beat those 2 and you're probably in, as long as there aren't a lot of upsets. Actually beating Barry alone might be enough to get you in.
3. Also, you have no terrible losses, and 6 were on the road, plus you have a couple of Top-100 wins (1 on road).
And note that these are the three 1-bid conferences whose top team is excellent with great coaches, where you need the favorites to take care of business:
Each of these 3 teams are already locks and are in probable 1-bid conferences (unless they stumble in the CT):
- Central Intercollegiate... you need Fayetteville to win their CT.
- Lone Star... you need Abilene Christian to win their CT.
- West Virginia... you need West Liberty to win their CT.
Also, a Bemidji CT win in the Northern Sun would boot Winona State away from you.
Also, South Dakota State has the horses and a great coach, and could take the North Central CT title, so they could get a 3rd bid from that conference (along with locks Northern Colorado and Oakland) and bump you down one spot.
A couple of years ago (Season 74) with Merrimack, I went into my CT at like 58 in the Projection Report, but had to play 1-25 AIC (264 RPI) in the 1st round. Even still I only dropped from 58 to 61 with my win. I lost in the 2nd round to a good St Rose team, which stabilized my Projection at 62. I think there was only 1 CT upset, moving me to 63 and making me the 2nd to last team to get a bid. And now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that the last team in was actually Tampa.
7/30/2015 3:28 PM (edited)