When is it too soon to cut a guy? (George Davis) Topic

I drafted 1894 George Davis for the first time. Not very impressed. It's 19 games in & he's hitting just .200. With the team just 9-10, I don't wanna jump too soon, after all not everyone else is hitting great yet, either. But there's replacements available on waivers. So, who would cut bait & who would hold on? I especially wanna know from anyone who's had Davis before.
8/31/2015 6:23 AM
I literally never cut a player for perceived underperformance.  
8/31/2015 8:54 AM
Really? Doesn't that turn your SIM experience as a GM into drafting only & limit your participation as mainly just a manager with his hands tied?
8/31/2015 9:17 AM
No, not necessarily.  Though I draft very deliberately and manage quite actively across a season.

If we're talking about OLs, then I may use the waiver wire for other reasons. The two most common are:
-- If I get a particularly good AAA draw, I may reorganize my roster accordingly
-- I typically draft fewer IP than I will need to get through the season, and will use the WW to replenish once a guy is fatigued

But I literally never drop a player just because I think he is underperforming.  Or to put it another way, if there were really a BETTER player (i.e. a player with better normalized numbers in a comparable number of PA) available on the WW, at a cost of 10% less than what I paid for the guy on my roster, that would mean I really drafted poorly.

8/31/2015 10:02 AM
I've used him before as he gives a decent value at ~$8.8k per PA. Doesn't tire, defense shaky. He's one of those "1894 guys" which won't come close to their RL stats once run through the normalization, but those RL stats are so good he'll still do fine. I'm with contrarian; early season underperformance is no reason to hit the waiver wire. The cost is too great at 10%. I doubt you'll find the value per PA with the limited selection on the WW, especially when you factor in the cost. Watch him over the next 70 games or so as his BA climbs back into acceptable range. You'll be fine. Just temper your expectations with these 1894 guys.
8/31/2015 11:58 AM
I agree. Trust your drafting choices and stick with him. I might fiddle with the batting order some if he's underperforming, but as Contrarian said, it's unlikely that there's someone on the waiver wire that's going to be worth the 10% penalty.
8/31/2015 2:03 PM
Posted by contrarian23 on 8/31/2015 8:54:00 AM (view original):
I literally never cut a player for perceived underperformance.  
Ditto. An important thing to note is that there is no such thing in the sim as a "bad version" of a player. A guy is never going to have a "bad year" for you. Instead, there's a chance he has a bad series of 600-800 PAs and ends up having stats that aren't great. That happens and it's just part of the game. I have an 1894 Sam Thompson right now (.407 RL) who's hitting around .250 a decent chunk of games into the season. Next time he could hit .400 for me.

The loss of salary by making a WW transaction is literally never worth it outside of the situations contrarian described. You'd be putting yourself at a disadvantage.
8/31/2015 2:04 PM
I disagree...........There are many instances where league tendencies should dictate the composition of your roster. If a league is full of left-handed pitchers or there is a shocking amount of A+ Catchers and you've drafted basestealers in order to win just to name two. These are not drafting errors because in most instances you could get away with trying to win with Lefthanded hitters or basestealers.   Also, there are leagues where Homerun hitters do well in the regular season, but against experienced owners that draft deadballers, in the playoffs they will be less effective against them. So waiving a .276 hitting Homerun hitter and drafting a 330 hitting doubles hitter may be well worth it as the transaction deadline approaches to better compete against a known upcomming playoff opponent as many transaction deadlines in theme leagues are in the final week of the season. So no you shouldn't simply waive for underperformance, but if you can clearly see why in exceptional  circumstances....you should.
8/31/2015 5:06 PM
Posted by ozomatli on 8/31/2015 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by contrarian23 on 8/31/2015 8:54:00 AM (view original):
I literally never cut a player for perceived underperformance.  
Ditto. An important thing to note is that there is no such thing in the sim as a "bad version" of a player. A guy is never going to have a "bad year" for you. Instead, there's a chance he has a bad series of 600-800 PAs and ends up having stats that aren't great. That happens and it's just part of the game. I have an 1894 Sam Thompson right now (.407 RL) who's hitting around .250 a decent chunk of games into the season. Next time he could hit .400 for me.

The loss of salary by making a WW transaction is literally never worth it outside of the situations contrarian described. You'd be putting yourself at a disadvantage.
Ok, but I'm not sure if I understand there's no such thing as a bad version of a player but they could have a bad series of 600-800 PAs. That right there is a full season & more, thus a bad version. The SIM even states on performance history that like the stock market, there's no guarantees. I think waiting for 70 games or so could be very reckless, as that could be enough to put a team in an insurmountable hole. I've dumped guys before & it made a difference. The 10% factor is an issue, but since his salary is 5.9 mil, I could replace him with a 4.4 mil Landford or even 5.4 mil Sandoval. Like Crimson said, some players don't do well in certain leagues. I'm just wondering when's too soon. For a while now, I've drafted a team of just 7 position players to allow more to spend on pitching. Depending on what AAA players I get, I put Bip Roberts at either 2B or 3B. But I don't get much AAA IF quality so I thought I'd shoot for using a AAA OFer for a change. I've seen a lot of owners do well with Davis, so I figured this would be a good way to make that change in my roster philosophy. So, that's where I am now.......
9/1/2015 6:57 AM
As a side note, just before I left my last post our 15 year old woke us up because a bat is flying around in our kids' end of the house. I hit it with a broom & it went down to the floor & disappeared. So, you probably see what I'm doing with the rest of my morning. Just a little humor to pass along to you guys...........
9/1/2015 7:31 AM
Posted by crimsonblue on 8/31/2015 5:06:00 PM (view original):
I disagree...........There are many instances where league tendencies should dictate the composition of your roster. If a league is full of left-handed pitchers or there is a shocking amount of A+ Catchers and you've drafted basestealers in order to win just to name two. These are not drafting errors because in most instances you could get away with trying to win with Lefthanded hitters or basestealers.   Also, there are leagues where Homerun hitters do well in the regular season, but against experienced owners that draft deadballers, in the playoffs they will be less effective against them. So waiving a .276 hitting Homerun hitter and drafting a 330 hitting doubles hitter may be well worth it as the transaction deadline approaches to better compete against a known upcomming playoff opponent as many transaction deadlines in theme leagues are in the final week of the season. So no you shouldn't simply waive for underperformance, but if you can clearly see why in exceptional  circumstances....you should.
That second instance would be a worthwhile swap, I agree. Good point! However in most leagues I'd say it is relatively easy (most of the time) to determine what the overall composition of players will be beforehand. I'd file that one under drafting mistakes, personally.
9/1/2015 8:56 AM
Posted by drocman212 on 9/1/2015 6:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ozomatli on 8/31/2015 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by contrarian23 on 8/31/2015 8:54:00 AM (view original):
I literally never cut a player for perceived underperformance.  
Ditto. An important thing to note is that there is no such thing in the sim as a "bad version" of a player. A guy is never going to have a "bad year" for you. Instead, there's a chance he has a bad series of 600-800 PAs and ends up having stats that aren't great. That happens and it's just part of the game. I have an 1894 Sam Thompson right now (.407 RL) who's hitting around .250 a decent chunk of games into the season. Next time he could hit .400 for me.

The loss of salary by making a WW transaction is literally never worth it outside of the situations contrarian described. You'd be putting yourself at a disadvantage.
Ok, but I'm not sure if I understand there's no such thing as a bad version of a player but they could have a bad series of 600-800 PAs. That right there is a full season & more, thus a bad version. The SIM even states on performance history that like the stock market, there's no guarantees. I think waiting for 70 games or so could be very reckless, as that could be enough to put a team in an insurmountable hole. I've dumped guys before & it made a difference. The 10% factor is an issue, but since his salary is 5.9 mil, I could replace him with a 4.4 mil Landford or even 5.4 mil Sandoval. Like Crimson said, some players don't do well in certain leagues. I'm just wondering when's too soon. For a while now, I've drafted a team of just 7 position players to allow more to spend on pitching. Depending on what AAA players I get, I put Bip Roberts at either 2B or 3B. But I don't get much AAA IF quality so I thought I'd shoot for using a AAA OFer for a change. I've seen a lot of owners do well with Davis, so I figured this would be a good way to make that change in my roster philosophy. So, that's where I am now.......
What I meant is that even after 500 PAs of hitting .250, Sam Thompson still comes to bat like the same (poorly normalizing) .407 hitter on the 501st PA. He isn't inherently bad that season.

Some players don't do well in certain leagues, but those are things you can largely take into account before the league starts (i.e. when you're drafting). An example would be in Donburgh's Exclusive Ownership league. That league lends itself to having more pitchers that allow HRs than, say, Lazerhawks' TOC Advantage league, so I go into the draft for it aiming to select HR hitters and friendly stadium. In Lazerhawks' league, it's better to pick based on maximizing what's underpriced in the sim (switch-hitting speed guys and  pre-1919 pitchers, much like crimson did on his only active team). In open leagues, while there is variation, you pretty much know what to expect at this point since the game hasn't really changed in a few years. In the larger scheme of things, 600-800 PAs is a small sample size and sometimes you just run into a season-long streak of bad luck. It doesn't mean it was necessarily a poor drafting decision.
9/1/2015 9:12 AM (edited)
I'm thinking I should've just trusted my gut instinct & cut him while I could. The lack of run support has forced my team into about 6 extra inning games just 22 games in. This has fatigued my entire bullpen, & that's 7 guys total. The difference between Davis & Landsford might have allowed me enough to draft another pitcher. Oh well, maybe increasing my starters' pitch count for a bit will allow them enough recovery time & perhaps Davis will be out of his funk by then.
9/1/2015 9:10 AM
Looking at your league, I think it's safe to say they'll turn it around and that you'll (at least) battle for the WC. Looking at Davis's performance history, he's been used 217 times in OLs and averages around 120 RC and a .341 AVG. He should be fine. Have faith in the choices you made!
9/1/2015 9:16 AM
Thanks, bud. I hope so. The rest of the team's not exactly tearing it up either, so it's not the biggest deal in the world. I've often held off, as there's always plenty of time left. I just don't like the effect it's having on my pitching. My teams' success has always been more about pitching. I've usually been in middle of pack for scoring. I hate seeing wasted starts that lead to too many unnecessary RP appearances. Got some really good RP who're looking pretty bad now as a result.
9/1/2015 9:57 AM
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