Advanced Standings Topic

schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
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The Advanced Standings page includes information that I thought might be interesting to summarize...  THe following posts are related to data from the Advanced Standings page.
9/28/2015 8:18 AM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Here are the overall W-L records in 1-run games...
Blue = Best%, Red = Worst%
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M Total Win%
---------- ---------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ -------------- -----------
5 ArlenWilliam 24-26 34-14 28-21 24-24 35-17 21-17 166-119 0.582
40 ejstockman 31-22 27-17 19-20 16-22 31-15 25-18 149-114 0.567
13 dougpalm 21-12 27-20 25-26 27-25 24-12 22-17 146-112 0.566
11 rbow923 26-18 40-24 34-26 18-20 26-31 28-14 172-133 0.564
44 odalisgagne 17-28 38-16 28-21 27-23 19-19 29-18 158-125 0.558
64 kjaskolski 24-22 26-19 27-19 31-16 25-25 19-20 152-121 0.557
2 brianjw 31-16 23-18 24-26 21-17 25-26 27-18 151-121 0.555
68 Fusion27s 22-13 26-19 24-16 26-26 23-23 28-25 149-122 0.550
15 buddhagamer 32-17 21-25 22-22 20-17 21-17 28-20 144-118 0.550
83 thehuseman 20-25 27-20 30-19 33-23 18-18 19-16 147-121 0.549
1 WaitNSee 24-14 19-23 27-25 15-17 32-19 26-21 143-119 0.546
30 rmdriskill 30-25 30-16 27-16 22-27 26-20 22-29 157-133 0.541
77 hacker7 34-22 25-15 29-34 22-12 23-25 18-21 151-129 0.539
82 shysters3 24-24 28-24 25-23 24-22 21-16 24-17 146-126 0.537
19 contrarian23 26-22 23-24 20-10 21-17 23-19 20-24 133-116 0.534
54 beauchamp 15-28 28-22 28-14 29-24 29-24 15-14 144-126 0.533
61 Relkcirts 37-26 22-30 27-27 23-22 25-20 27-16 161-141 0.533
14 bardin 26-20 26-25 27-21 26-18 21-23 19-20 145-127 0.533
17 NappyRootz 18-16 21-20 37-24 23-18 22-23 18-21 139-122 0.533
57 kyleb63 26-33 22-25 20-17 27-17 29-23 24-15 148-130 0.532
25 sford 25-28 27-21 23-26 32-19 24-24 30-24 161-142 0.531
39 legaldh 23-28 27-18 15-21 23-17 25-20 28-21 141-125 0.530
50 yogi20 23-21 24-18 31-22 23-20 26-24 18-25 145-130 0.527
53 zephyr1949 25-28 22-22 26-25 29-16 24-24 29-24 155-139 0.527
6 ybjsports 19-23 13-22 26-23 29-20 31-24 26-18 144-130 0.526
62 ozomatli 34-25 21-26 26-21 24-22 26-24 17-16 148-134 0.525
35 slainte 31-19 33-28 26-19 20-36 28-24 19-17 157-143 0.523
29 bigmc 20-21 33-14 28-34 21-22 18-15 17-19 137-125 0.523
72 toddcommish 22-19 18-26 30-20 25-16 15-20 27-24 137-125 0.523
74 skilly006 19-20 24-33 25-16 21-15 22-27 28-16 139-127 0.523
48 bheid408 19-28 20-18 34-20 17-19 26-21 18-17 134-123 0.521
89 zlionsfan 20-13 18-25 28-15 11-19 22-22 29-25 128-119 0.518
67 marlowe 25-17 31-19 21-27 28-15 18-27 20-28 143-133 0.518
71 trd3 19-16 31-27 18-27 18-16 25-14 19-21 130-121 0.518
23 finn2030 29-25 19-26 14-24 22-18 33-19 24-20 141-132 0.516
18 mpitt76 33-19 20-31 28-29 22-25 26-18 28-25 157-147 0.516
43 calhoop 27-19 18-25 35-14 11-18 22-20 22-31 135-127 0.515
36 Lazerhawks 25-22 25-22 24-21 24-23 19-25 21-19 138-132 0.511
76 EasyE7273 23-31 30-24 24-30 28-29 27-18 30-23 162-155 0.511
8 mildnhazy 29-34 24-21 22-26 20-19 21-21 26-15 142-136 0.511
51 Jdh34 28-28 26-24 26-24 13-21 30-22 23-21 146-140 0.510
58 stickyfeet99 17-17 23-19 24-24 18-21 20-13 16-20 118-114 0.509
66 besterateam 27-23 14-23 35-37 29-22 22-25 27-20 154-150 0.507
49 Donburgh 36-28 29-22 25-26 19-24 24-25 22-26 155-151 0.507
16 alleyviper 20-26 21-21 22-30 22-15 32-18 12-18 129-128 0.502
45 ff09 25-21 21-18 18-25 25-19 25-23 18-25 132-131 0.502
32 justinlee_24 24-24 32-24 21-26 19-24 26-23 19-19 141-140 0.502
7 jbohrman 27-26 30-22 22-30 21-25 29-24 23-25 152-152 0.500
73 DarthDurron 18-24 21-23 23-26 22-17 26-22 20-18 130-130 0.500
41 markeking 25-21 25-27 25-20 28-15 12-25 12-19 127-127 0.500
88 alice 26-23 25-26 21-23 17-26 22-19 24-18 135-135 0.500
12 jmissirlis 24-25 17-25 22-23 27-21 22-19 25-25 137-138 0.498
75 nordawg 15-23 20-13 21-26 26-26 21-21 24-19 127-128 0.498
55 crystalao 26-20 21-20 19-21 23-16 16-29 27-29 132-135 0.494
87 thebubbaq 20-26 30-27 25-15 22-31 19-20 18-19 134-138 0.493
96 dorkster 24-22 21-17 24-22 22-25 22-27 16-20 129-133 0.492
20 PennQuaker 25-27 26-32 23-18 18-20 28-26 21-23 141-146 0.491
3 discodemo 17-21 26-22 25-23 29-25 23-30 23-28 143-149 0.490
86 Chisock 17-21 17-25 25-15 16-25 26-23 17-14 118-123 0.490
33 cubbies84 28-28 29-27 16-29 24-19 25-23 19-21 141-147 0.490
26 jfranco77 24-27 21-22 16-26 25-23 27-23 27-25 140-146 0.490
34 mllama54 25-34 18-20 20-17 27-22 28-30 21-22 139-145 0.489
28 batandball 25-24 23-21 31-32 20-27 26-26 25-27 150-157 0.489
80 glowguy 21-27 25-24 34-30 22-22 17-15 22-30 141-148 0.488
52 oskies 13-21 26-18 24-13 20-23 13-22 15-21 111-118 0.485
79 daronb 18-31 27-19 24-21 27-23 7-17 20-20 123-131 0.484
9 HoofHearted 18-19 30-20 19-26 23-19 21-39 20-18 131-141 0.482
10 yankeeso7 29-23 17-28 23-23 18-29 20-25 29-19 136-147 0.481
21 jjgreen14 27-26 24-34 28-20 27-28 22-26 17-24 145-158 0.479
59 mick33 32-25 21-19 24-26 18-26 23-29 15-20 133-145 0.478
78 sprintracer 25-20 21-30 15-22 31-38 23-22 23-19 138-151 0.478
47 whoscraig 27-14 25-20 17-34 22-23 24-26 19-30 134-147 0.477
69 magicdreamer 22-29 15-21 22-26 22-24 27-23 21-20 129-143 0.474
46 ballantine 26-21 26-24 25-23 12-29 22-24 17-21 128-142 0.474
24 redsox666666 17-29 20-25 20-31 29-16 14-18 23-18 123-137 0.473
27 SpotSell 23-31 23-29 23-29 20-21 19-23 30-22 138-155 0.471
60 razorclams 17-22 22-25 26-19 17-21 23-20 15-29 120-136 0.469
4 schwarze 22-14 25-30 24-31 13-25 17-17 17-17 118-134 0.468
38 firesalt 24-24 24-29 23-22 21-27 21-24 19-24 132-150 0.468
65 dlchow 21-27 17-16 16-38 29-21 24-23 21-21 128-146 0.467
84 River_Rats 25-23 20-30 29-28 18-28 18-24 26-26 136-159 0.461
94 npg32433 15-23 14-28 26-22 25-25 15-20 24-22 119-140 0.459
90 joshkvt 11-11 16-22 24-24 12-16 18-20 14-19 95-112 0.459
37 rickysdad44 18-29 14-23 37-22 16-27 31-34 24-31 140-166 0.458
95 deathdealer 10-18 27-19 15-29 21-17 12-23 22-21 107-127 0.457
91 tridentric 15-24 21-18 16-19 21-26 20-30 23-23 116-140 0.453
42 hersheybear 20-22 20-27 21-33 14-21 25-23 21-22 121-148 0.450
92 gewrite 16-17 10-22 22-25 26-29 19-25 24-26 117-144 0.448
56 Humdogs 19-23 18-22 23-30 16-22 23-20 16-25 115-142 0.447
63 mwammes 24-21 20-28 17-20 16-27 26-26 15-25 118-147 0.445
81 dodgebob 25-23 17-32 21-32 17-21 19-18 16-19 115-145 0.442
31 beaneball 26-21 15-23 19-26 22-17 16-32 16-27 114-146 0.438
22 bighooze 15-32 27-25 18-24 25-21 22-34 19-28 126-164 0.434
70 Yaz2Schill 13-26 14-30 26-35 22-22 26-25 23-27 124-165 0.429
85 Oli35 20-31 20-31 28-30 8-27 21-32 25-28 122-179 0.405
93 evil_twin 19-23 15-30 12-24 16-20 10-24 17-30 89-151 0.371
9/28/2015 8:46 AM (edited)
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer

1-run games represent almost 30% of all games played.  Here are the standings of games decided by 2+ runs...

Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M Total Win%
---------- ---------------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ -------------- -----------
5 ArlenWilliam 72-40 69-45 65-48 88-26 61-49 81-43 436-251 0.635
3 discodemo 79-45 80-34 70-44 61-47 68-41 70-41 428-252 0.629
2 brianjw 78-37 84-37 65-47 66-58 66-45 71-46 430-270 0.614
29 bigmc 67-54 69-46 58-42 66-53 90-39 76-50 426-284 0.600
61 Relkcirts 60-39 70-40 58-51 78-39 62-55 73-46 401-270 0.598
1 WaitNSee 71-53 80-40 55-55 74-56 68-43 76-39 424-286 0.597
12 jmissirlis 76-37 70-50 68-49 67-47 71-50 60-52 412-285 0.591
33 cubbies84 51-55 66-40 64-53 74-45 75-39 72-50 402-282 0.588
6 ybjsports 75-45 79-48 70-43 66-47 58-49 61-57 409-289 0.586
10 yankeeso7 69-41 63-54 64-52 81-34 59-58 67-47 403-286 0.585
13 dougpalm 78-51 68-47 61-50 67-43 75-51 68-55 417-297 0.584
16 alleyviper 64-52 59-61 65-45 75-50 65-47 83-49 411-304 0.575
7 jbohrman 55-54 67-43 53-57 73-43 69-40 64-50 381-287 0.570
17 NappyRootz 82-46 70-51 57-44 72-49 66-51 56-67 403-308 0.567
14 bardin 70-46 54-57 67-47 64-54 66-52 69-54 390-310 0.557
22 bighooze 59-56 54-56 78-42 70-46 51-55 68-48 380-303 0.556
25 sford 59-50 59-55 60-53 65-46 69-45 60-48 372-297 0.556
21 jjgreen14 66-43 71-33 47-67 53-54 64-50 71-50 372-297 0.556
55 crystalao 67-49 77-44 57-65 60-63 66-51 65-41 392-313 0.556
38 firesalt 51-63 68-41 60-57 63-52 72-45 69-50 383-308 0.554
11 rbow923 66-52 51-47 64-38 63-61 60-45 65-55 369-298 0.553
32 justinlee_24 74-40 59-47 64-51 60-59 60-53 65-59 382-309 0.553
4 schwarze 72-54 52-55 65-42 68-57 65-63 76-52 398-323 0.552
8 mildnhazy 53-46 57-60 58-56 74-49 71-49 70-51 383-311 0.552
69 magicdreamer 65-46 65-61 65-49 58-58 69-43 63-58 385-315 0.550
28 batandball 68-45 69-49 46-53 58-57 56-54 68-42 365-300 0.549
41 markeking 76-40 53-57 66-51 65-54 67-58 67-64 394-324 0.549
35 slainte 59-53 56-45 56-61 64-43 65-45 63-63 363-310 0.539
39 legaldh 55-56 76-41 71-55 56-66 59-58 60-54 377-330 0.533
40 ejstockman 69-40 66-52 59-64 63-61 62-54 58-61 377-332 0.532
15 buddhagamer 66-47 55-61 55-63 68-57 69-55 64-50 377-333 0.531
36 Lazerhawks 70-45 58-57 58-59 61-55 55-63 71-51 373-330 0.531
52 oskies 75-53 62-56 58-67 67-52 75-52 56-70 393-350 0.529
46 ballantine 55-60 61-51 66-48 68-54 62-54 57-67 369-334 0.525
49 Donburgh 58-41 56-55 64-47 60-60 63-50 49-65 350-318 0.524
19 contrarian23 72-42 70-45 59-73 61-63 58-62 56-62 376-347 0.520
47 whoscraig 60-61 54-63 62-49 60-57 73-39 49-64 358-333 0.518
62 ozomatli 58-45 54-61 60-55 59-57 63-49 63-66 357-333 0.517
43 calhoop 55-61 56-63 58-55 66-67 73-47 57-52 365-345 0.514
42 hersheybear 54-66 62-53 65-43 58-69 60-54 62-57 361-342 0.514
66 besterateam 58-54 70-55 46-44 52-59 63-52 54-61 343-325 0.513
30 rmdriskill 52-55 68-48 66-53 51-62 60-56 50-61 347-335 0.509
18 mpitt76 62-48 62-49 47-58 56-59 58-60 54-55 339-329 0.507
71 trd3 80-47 43-61 58-59 65-63 68-55 51-71 365-356 0.506
68 Fusion27s 58-69 55-62 60-62 56-54 60-56 65-44 354-347 0.505
83 thehuseman 59-58 52-63 60-53 54-52 63-63 67-60 355-349 0.504
80 glowguy 58-56 54-59 49-49 52-66 72-58 59-51 344-339 0.504
54 beauchamp 60-59 67-45 63-57 53-56 55-54 55-78 353-349 0.503
20 PennQuaker 68-43 55-49 51-70 62-63 52-56 57-61 345-342 0.502
53 zephyr1949 51-58 59-59 44-67 66-51 61-53 57-52 338-340 0.499
86 Chisock 58-66 57-63 68-54 55-66 59-54 65-66 362-369 0.495
56 Humdogs 64-56 55-67 47-62 60-64 59-60 69-52 354-361 0.495
9 HoofHearted 56-69 54-58 60-57 62-59 44-58 69-55 345-356 0.492
34 mllama54 36-67 64-60 58-67 62-51 56-48 59-60 335-353 0.487
58 stickyfeet99 52-76 62-58 57-57 61-62 69-60 59-67 360-380 0.486
27 SpotSell 52-56 65-45 40-70 58-63 56-64 58-52 329-350 0.485
23 finn2030 48-60 53-64 65-59 56-66 55-55 60-58 337-362 0.482
74 skilly006 62-61 44-61 60-61 65-62 50-63 59-59 340-367 0.481
26 jfranco77 55-56 65-54 53-67 59-55 47-65 50-60 329-357 0.480
51 Jdh34 47-59 53-59 61-51 54-74 50-60 63-55 328-358 0.478
44 odalisgagne 59-58 48-60 50-63 52-60 57-67 63-52 329-360 0.478
88 alice 57-56 43-68 62-56 47-72 76-45 50-70 335-367 0.477
78 sprintracer 67-50 37-74 56-69 45-48 65-52 55-65 325-358 0.476
50 yogi20 51-67 61-59 55-55 50-69 50-62 65-54 332-366 0.476
48 bheid408 47-68 73-51 51-57 53-73 57-58 59-68 340-375 0.476
96 dorkster 59-57 68-56 55-61 36-79 55-58 64-62 337-373 0.475
75 nordawg 67-58 57-72 59-56 51-59 51-69 55-64 340-378 0.474
87 thebubbaq 54-62 46-59 61-61 46-63 69-54 55-70 331-369 0.473
84 River_Rats 50-64 59-53 41-64 57-59 56-64 57-53 320-357 0.473
67 marlowe 58-62 66-46 60-54 48-71 38-79 58-56 328-368 0.471
76 EasyE7273 54-54 50-58 50-58 57-49 52-65 46-63 309-347 0.471
57 kyleb63 56-48 48-67 65-60 56-62 44-66 57-66 326-369 0.469
60 razorclams 49-74 53-62 65-52 63-61 49-70 54-64 333-383 0.465
77 hacker7 58-48 62-60 46-53 50-78 56-58 49-74 321-371 0.464
72 toddcommish 51-70 66-52 49-63 53-68 52-75 57-54 328-382 0.462
89 zlionsfan 50-79 48-71 74-45 77-56 30-88 51-57 330-396 0.455
37 rickysdad44 42-73 71-54 51-52 40-79 49-48 49-58 302-364 0.453
82 shysters3 50-64 57-53 54-60 50-66 59-66 47-74 317-383 0.453
31 beaneball 58-59 41-83 62-55 59-64 51-63 50-69 321-393 0.450
64 kjaskolski 52-64 49-68 60-56 43-72 43-69 67-56 314-385 0.449
65 dlchow 65-49 55-74 50-58 49-63 46-69 48-72 313-385 0.448
73 DarthDurron 47-73 45-73 64-49 53-70 46-68 58-66 313-399 0.440
63 mwammes 62-55 43-71 49-76 43-76 67-43 46-76 310-397 0.438
70 Yaz2Schill 30-93 57-61 47-54 59-59 52-59 53-59 298-385 0.436
81 dodgebob 48-66 38-75 52-57 59-65 52-73 61-66 310-402 0.435
59 mick33 46-59 56-66 46-66 44-74 51-59 57-70 300-394 0.432
91 tridentric 51-72 57-66 50-77 52-63 42-70 44-72 296-420 0.413
79 daronb 40-73 60-56 44-73 57-56 30-108 66-56 297-422 0.413
45 ff09 50-66 44-79 43-76 65-53 50-64 40-79 292-417 0.412
85 Oli35 48-63 46-65 48-56 46-81 37-72 49-60 274-397 0.408
90 joshkvt 37-103 39-85 58-56 55-79 55-69 48-81 292-473 0.382
94 npg32433 52-72 45-75 44-70 46-66 42-85 40-76 269-444 0.377
95 deathdealer 30-104 42-74 62-56 53-71 49-78 41-78 277-461 0.375
24 redsox666666 36-80 35-82 44-67 56-62 52-78 43-78 266-447 0.373
92 gewrite 36-93 31-99 42-73 42-65 44-74 56-56 251-460 0.353
93 evil_twin 33-87 31-86 32-94 71-56 34-94 38-77 239-494 0.326

9/28/2015 8:49 AM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Although 1-run results are considered to be mostly luck driven, there is some positive correlation between winning% in 1-run games compared to winning% in 2+ run games.  I ran a correlation study and found the correlation coefficient is +0.5.  In essence the very best teams in 2+ run games should win about 55% of their 1-run games while the worst teams should win about 45% of their 1-run games.  Not surprisingly, most teams should win close to 50% of their 1-run games.  Using this measure, I can determine who the luckiest and unluckiest teams are, when measured by 1-run games...

A negative difference = unlucky
Pre-Rank Owner 2+ run 1 run Exp 1-Run Difference
---------- ---------------- ------------- ------------- ---------------- ----------------
22 bighooze 0.556 0.434 0.516 -0.082
93 evil_twin 0.326 0.371 0.447 -0.076
85 Oli35 0.408 0.405 0.472 -0.067
42 hersheybear 0.514 0.450 0.504 -0.054
70 Yaz2Schill 0.436 0.429 0.480 -0.051
56 Humdogs 0.495 0.447 0.498 -0.051
3 discodemo 0.629 0.490 0.538 -0.048
38 firesalt 0.554 0.468 0.516 -0.048
4 schwarze 0.552 0.468 0.515 -0.047
31 beaneball 0.450 0.438 0.484 -0.046
10 yankeeso7 0.585 0.481 0.525 -0.044
69 magicdreamer 0.550 0.474 0.515 -0.041
81 dodgebob 0.435 0.442 0.480 -0.038
21 jjgreen14 0.556 0.479 0.516 -0.037
33 cubbies84 0.588 0.490 0.526 -0.036
63 mwammes 0.438 0.445 0.481 -0.036
46 ballantine 0.525 0.474 0.507 -0.033
84 River_Rats 0.473 0.461 0.491 -0.030
12 jmissirlis 0.591 0.498 0.527 -0.029
47 whoscraig 0.518 0.477 0.505 -0.028
37 rickysdad44 0.453 0.458 0.485 -0.027
28 batandball 0.549 0.489 0.514 -0.025
27 SpotSell 0.485 0.471 0.495 -0.024
52 oskies 0.529 0.485 0.508 -0.023
55 crystalao 0.556 0.494 0.516 -0.022
7 jbohrman 0.570 0.500 0.521 -0.021
60 razorclams 0.465 0.469 0.489 -0.020
16 alleyviper 0.575 0.502 0.522 -0.020
91 tridentric 0.413 0.453 0.473 -0.020
65 dlchow 0.448 0.467 0.484 -0.017
9 HoofHearted 0.492 0.482 0.497 -0.015
78 sprintracer 0.476 0.478 0.492 -0.014
41 markeking 0.549 0.500 0.514 -0.014
32 justinlee_24 0.553 0.502 0.515 -0.013
80 glowguy 0.504 0.488 0.501 -0.013
20 PennQuaker 0.502 0.491 0.500 -0.009
86 Chisock 0.495 0.490 0.498 -0.008
29 bigmc 0.600 0.523 0.530 -0.007
92 gewrite 0.353 0.448 0.455 -0.007
34 mllama54 0.487 0.489 0.496 -0.007
90 joshkvt 0.382 0.459 0.464 -0.005
95 deathdealer 0.375 0.457 0.462 -0.005
8 mildnhazy 0.552 0.511 0.515 -0.004
26 jfranco77 0.480 0.490 0.493 -0.003
94 npg32433 0.377 0.459 0.462 -0.003
59 mick33 0.432 0.478 0.479 -0.001
49 Donburgh 0.524 0.507 0.507 0.000
96 dorkster 0.475 0.492 0.492 0.000
6 ybjsports 0.586 0.526 0.525 0.001
87 thebubbaq 0.473 0.493 0.491 0.002
36 Lazerhawks 0.531 0.511 0.509 0.002
66 besterateam 0.513 0.507 0.503 0.004
61 Relkcirts 0.598 0.533 0.529 0.004
75 nordawg 0.474 0.498 0.492 0.006
88 alice 0.477 0.500 0.493 0.007
79 daronb 0.413 0.484 0.473 0.011
43 calhoop 0.514 0.515 0.504 0.011
24 redsox666666 0.373 0.473 0.461 0.012
35 slainte 0.539 0.523 0.511 0.012
17 NappyRootz 0.567 0.533 0.520 0.013
58 stickyfeet99 0.486 0.509 0.495 0.014
18 mpitt76 0.507 0.516 0.502 0.014
25 sford 0.556 0.531 0.516 0.015
14 bardin 0.557 0.533 0.517 0.016
1 WaitNSee 0.597 0.546 0.529 0.017
71 trd3 0.506 0.518 0.501 0.017
51 Jdh34 0.478 0.510 0.493 0.017
73 DarthDurron 0.440 0.500 0.481 0.019
62 ozomatli 0.517 0.525 0.505 0.020
76 EasyE7273 0.471 0.511 0.491 0.020
39 legaldh 0.533 0.530 0.509 0.021
2 brianjw 0.614 0.555 0.534 0.021
23 finn2030 0.482 0.516 0.494 0.022
67 marlowe 0.471 0.518 0.491 0.027
19 contrarian23 0.520 0.534 0.506 0.028
53 zephyr1949 0.499 0.527 0.499 0.028
74 skilly006 0.481 0.523 0.494 0.029
45 ff09 0.412 0.502 0.473 0.029
48 bheid408 0.476 0.521 0.492 0.029
89 zlionsfan 0.455 0.518 0.486 0.032
54 beauchamp 0.503 0.533 0.500 0.033
72 toddcommish 0.462 0.523 0.488 0.035
50 yogi20 0.476 0.527 0.492 0.035
30 rmdriskill 0.509 0.541 0.502 0.039
15 buddhagamer 0.531 0.550 0.509 0.041
13 dougpalm 0.584 0.566 0.525 0.041
57 kyleb63 0.469 0.532 0.490 0.042
5 ArlenWilliam 0.635 0.582 0.540 0.042
83 thehuseman 0.504 0.549 0.501 0.048
68 Fusion27s 0.505 0.550 0.501 0.049
11 rbow923 0.553 0.564 0.515 0.049
77 hacker7 0.464 0.539 0.489 0.050
82 shysters3 0.453 0.537 0.485 0.052
40 ejstockman 0.532 0.567 0.509 0.058
44 odalisgagne 0.478 0.558 0.493 0.065
64 kjaskolski 0.449 0.557 0.484 0.073
9/28/2015 1:49 PM (edited)
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Using the Expected Winning% from the advanced standings, here is the ranking of the owners...
Red = teams over .540 that didn't make round 2
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M ExpW%
---------- ------------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
2 brianjw 0.658 0.717 0.581 0.604 0.613 0.631 0.634
5 ArlenWilliam 0.642 0.544 0.532 0.703 0.592 0.654 0.611
3 discodemo 0.566 0.678 0.577 0.592 0.592 0.601 0.601
29 bigmc 0.584 0.595 0.537 0.559 0.679 0.592 0.591
61 Relkcirts 0.577 0.628 0.529 0.649 0.542 0.577 0.584
13 dougpalm 0.615 0.604 0.529 0.552 0.666 0.534 0.583
4 schwarze 0.628 0.556 0.583 0.568 0.543 0.593 0.579
1 WaitNSee 0.585 0.616 0.499 0.571 0.585 0.601 0.576
6 ybjsports 0.591 0.641 0.571 0.601 0.536 0.497 0.573
32 justinlee_24 0.639 0.593 0.539 0.548 0.564 0.548 0.572
16 alleyviper 0.526 0.481 0.622 0.565 0.619 0.616 0.572
25 sford 0.577 0.580 0.533 0.608 0.567 0.564 0.572
55 crystalao 0.589 0.679 0.479 0.545 0.554 0.576 0.570
10 yankeeso7 0.610 0.512 0.545 0.664 0.525 0.560 0.569
33 cubbies84 0.549 0.580 0.540 0.584 0.605 0.539 0.566
28 batandball 0.598 0.603 0.505 0.494 0.553 0.597 0.558
11 rbow923 0.551 0.553 0.591 0.550 0.563 0.540 0.558
7 jbohrman 0.552 0.563 0.478 0.578 0.614 0.562 0.558
38 firesalt 0.470 0.627 0.541 0.555 0.574 0.569 0.556
14 bardin 0.605 0.467 0.547 0.535 0.553 0.608 0.553
35 slainte 0.561 0.557 0.483 0.569 0.606 0.538 0.552
39 legaldh 0.509 0.680 0.524 0.518 0.532 0.548 0.552
12 jmissirlis 0.590 0.535 0.518 0.546 0.570 0.550 0.552
22 bighooze 0.503 0.499 0.628 0.597 0.451 0.593 0.545
 41 markeking 0.634 0.464 0.570 0.522 0.503 0.540 0.539
69 magicdreamer 0.546 0.522 0.505 0.517 0.584 0.541 0.536
21 jjgreen14 0.586 0.597 0.453 0.472 0.509 0.596 0.536
15 buddhagamer 0.538 0.505 0.455 0.557 0.599 0.546 0.533
17 NappyRootz 0.541 0.506 0.550 0.602 0.603 0.391 0.532
43 calhoop 0.514 0.466 0.527 0.507 0.597 0.566 0.530
8 mildnhazy 0.523 0.469 0.499 0.565 0.516 0.599 0.529
36 Lazerhawks 0.564 0.519 0.493 0.527 0.472 0.589 0.527
18 mpitt76 0.601 0.528 0.485 0.488 0.509 0.536 0.525
20 PennQuaker 0.581 0.567 0.477 0.515 0.501 0.497 0.523
40 ejstockman 0.593 0.551 0.487 0.512 0.511 0.480 0.522
34 mllama54 0.414 0.514 0.499 0.582 0.550 0.515 0.512
30 rmdriskill 0.457 0.567 0.555 0.477 0.559 0.454 0.512
49 Donburgh 0.575 0.508 0.561 0.483 0.518 0.419 0.511
71 trd3 0.581 0.441 0.487 0.548 0.537 0.467 0.510
83 thehuseman 0.491 0.510 0.529 0.513 0.521 0.492 0.509
46 ballantine 0.468 0.515 0.554 0.570 0.513 0.435 0.509
68 Fusion27s 0.494 0.481 0.494 0.482 0.519 0.575 0.508
47 whoscraig 0.512 0.462 0.527 0.476 0.583 0.482 0.507
42 hersheybear 0.474 0.518 0.559 0.448 0.544 0.495 0.506
9 HoofHearted 0.478 0.493 0.555 0.509 0.436 0.563 0.506
86 Chisock 0.487 0.472 0.572 0.483 0.528 0.467 0.502
80 glowguy 0.488 0.473 0.486 0.427 0.572 0.558 0.501
66 besterateam 0.524 0.522 0.515 0.409 0.551 0.481 0.500
56 Humdogs 0.518 0.465 0.471 0.491 0.486 0.554 0.498
62 ozomatli 0.484 0.449 0.490 0.494 0.505 0.560 0.497
26 jfranco77 0.499 0.534 0.495 0.527 0.428 0.497 0.497
58 stickyfeet99 0.424 0.514 0.488 0.500 0.557 0.495 0.496
50 yogi20 0.435 0.524 0.564 0.427 0.495 0.531 0.496
84 River_Rats 0.512 0.514 0.418 0.463 0.536 0.528 0.495
87 thebubbaq 0.493 0.490 0.492 0.468 0.561 0.459 0.494
54 beauchamp 0.488 0.566 0.537 0.488 0.502 0.378 0.493
44 odalisgagne 0.474 0.492 0.496 0.475 0.483 0.537 0.493
52 oskies 0.482 0.479 0.435 0.507 0.584 0.465 0.492
57 kyleb63 0.541 0.458 0.531 0.491 0.436 0.476 0.489
23 finn2030 0.473 0.468 0.523 0.478 0.510 0.466 0.486
74 skilly006 0.488 0.465 0.524 0.512 0.432 0.497 0.486
67 marlowe 0.524 0.567 0.522 0.462 0.354 0.487 0.486
78 sprintracer 0.554 0.373 0.467 0.508 0.569 0.441 0.485
51 Jdh34 0.515 0.464 0.503 0.452 0.476 0.500 0.485
77 hacker7 0.575 0.545 0.449 0.403 0.499 0.435 0.484
19 contrarian23 0.601 0.448 0.473 0.453 0.507 0.413 0.483
76 EasyE7273 0.491 0.492 0.504 0.483 0.450 0.472 0.482
72 toddcommish 0.434 0.579 0.442 0.466 0.441 0.528 0.482
48 bheid408 0.398 0.558 0.518 0.464 0.487 0.461 0.481
37 rickysdad44 0.407 0.575 0.511 0.395 0.509 0.465 0.477
88 alice 0.509 0.402 0.474 0.409 0.616 0.450 0.477
53 zephyr1949 0.463 0.470 0.434 0.496 0.457 0.535 0.476
27 SpotSell 0.483 0.560 0.386 0.463 0.423 0.513 0.471
75 nordawg 0.499 0.463 0.527 0.427 0.430 0.451 0.466
63 mwammes 0.530 0.458 0.435 0.391 0.587 0.393 0.466
73 DarthDurron 0.410 0.426 0.558 0.428 0.457 0.490 0.462
89 zlionsfan 0.386 0.402 0.570 0.617 0.307 0.477 0.460
96 dorkster 0.473 0.473 0.458 0.332 0.509 0.508 0.459
59 mick33 0.459 0.508 0.428 0.414 0.487 0.450 0.458
70 Yaz2Schill 0.310 0.474 0.480 0.501 0.525 0.447 0.456
81 dodgebob 0.483 0.360 0.478 0.475 0.427 0.489 0.452
82 shysters3 0.430 0.484 0.488 0.477 0.425 0.400 0.451
31 beaneball 0.514 0.305 0.512 0.443 0.470 0.457 0.450
60 razorclams 0.329 0.458 0.539 0.457 0.424 0.454 0.444
64 kjaskolski 0.495 0.422 0.494 0.357 0.391 0.496 0.443
91 tridentric 0.460 0.493 0.434 0.455 0.418 0.390 0.442
65 dlchow 0.536 0.412 0.451 0.416 0.402 0.414 0.439
45 ff09 0.434 0.391 0.407 0.535 0.466 0.376 0.435
95 deathdealer 0.286 0.440 0.500 0.456 0.356 0.386 0.404
79 daronb 0.373 0.492 0.387 0.523 0.125 0.486 0.398
90 joshkvt 0.321 0.323 0.489 0.395 0.421 0.339 0.381
85 Oli35 0.400 0.400 0.384 0.295 0.347 0.449 0.379
24 redsox666666 0.320 0.345 0.397 0.459 0.378 0.361 0.377
92 gewrite 0.300 0.235 0.418 0.414 0.372 0.459 0.366
94 npg32433 0.396 0.348 0.363 0.345 0.354 0.338 0.357
93 evil_twin 0.305 0.318 0.279 0.587 0.277 0.334 0.350
10/5/2015 9:55 AM (edited)
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Let's compare the expected winning% and the actual winning%....  A negative difference = unlucky / underachiever...
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M ExpW% Actual Difference
---------- ------------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
4 schwarze 0.628 0.556 0.583 0.568 0.543 0.593 0.579 0.530 -0.048
2 brianjw 0.658 0.717 0.581 0.604 0.613 0.631 0.634 0.598 -0.036
32 justinlee_24 0.639 0.593 0.539 0.548 0.564 0.548 0.572 0.538 -0.034
55 crystalao 0.589 0.679 0.479 0.545 0.554 0.576 0.570 0.539 -0.031
28 batandball 0.598 0.603 0.505 0.494 0.553 0.597 0.558 0.530 -0.028
38 firesalt 0.470 0.627 0.541 0.555 0.574 0.569 0.556 0.529 -0.027
84 River_Rats 0.512 0.514 0.418 0.463 0.536 0.528 0.495 0.469 -0.026
63 mwammes 0.530 0.458 0.435 0.391 0.587 0.393 0.466 0.440 -0.025
22 bighooze 0.503 0.499 0.628 0.597 0.451 0.593 0.545 0.520 -0.025
34 mllama54 0.414 0.514 0.499 0.582 0.550 0.515 0.512 0.488 -0.025
20 PennQuaker 0.581 0.567 0.477 0.515 0.501 0.497 0.523 0.499 -0.024
25 sford 0.577 0.580 0.533 0.608 0.567 0.564 0.572 0.548 -0.023
37 rickysdad44 0.407 0.575 0.511 0.395 0.509 0.465 0.477 0.455 -0.022
70 Yaz2Schill 0.310 0.474 0.480 0.501 0.525 0.447 0.456 0.434 -0.022
39 legaldh 0.509 0.680 0.524 0.518 0.532 0.548 0.552 0.532 -0.019
35 slainte 0.561 0.557 0.483 0.569 0.606 0.538 0.552 0.534 -0.018
91 tridentric 0.460 0.493 0.434 0.455 0.418 0.390 0.442 0.424 -0.018
9 HoofHearted 0.478 0.493 0.555 0.509 0.436 0.563 0.506 0.489 -0.016
16 alleyviper 0.526 0.481 0.622 0.565 0.619 0.616 0.572 0.556 -0.016
87 thebubbaq 0.493 0.490 0.492 0.468 0.561 0.459 0.494 0.478 -0.015
43 calhoop 0.514 0.466 0.527 0.507 0.597 0.566 0.530 0.514 -0.015
56 Humdogs 0.518 0.465 0.471 0.491 0.486 0.554 0.498 0.483 -0.015
10 yankeeso7 0.610 0.512 0.545 0.664 0.525 0.560 0.569 0.555 -0.015
81 dodgebob 0.483 0.360 0.478 0.475 0.427 0.489 0.452 0.437 -0.015
18 mpitt76 0.601 0.528 0.485 0.488 0.509 0.536 0.525 0.510 -0.014
26 jfranco77 0.499 0.534 0.495 0.527 0.428 0.497 0.497 0.483 -0.014
3 discodemo 0.566 0.678 0.577 0.592 0.592 0.601 0.601 0.587 -0.014
93 evil_twin 0.305 0.318 0.279 0.587 0.277 0.334 0.350 0.337 -0.013
59 mick33 0.459 0.508 0.428 0.414 0.487 0.450 0.458 0.445 -0.012
29 bigmc 0.584 0.595 0.537 0.559 0.679 0.592 0.591 0.579 -0.012
42 hersheybear 0.474 0.518 0.559 0.448 0.544 0.495 0.506 0.496 -0.010
7 jbohrman 0.552 0.563 0.478 0.578 0.614 0.562 0.558 0.548 -0.009
78 sprintracer 0.554 0.373 0.467 0.508 0.569 0.441 0.485 0.476 -0.009
95 deathdealer 0.286 0.440 0.500 0.456 0.356 0.386 0.404 0.395 -0.009
86 Chisock 0.487 0.472 0.572 0.483 0.528 0.467 0.502 0.494 -0.008
33 cubbies84 0.549 0.580 0.540 0.584 0.605 0.539 0.566 0.559 -0.008
69 magicdreamer 0.546 0.522 0.505 0.517 0.584 0.541 0.536 0.529 -0.007
61 Relkcirts 0.577 0.628 0.529 0.649 0.542 0.577 0.584 0.578 -0.006
50 yogi20 0.435 0.524 0.564 0.427 0.495 0.531 0.496 0.490 -0.006
73 DarthDurron 0.410 0.426 0.558 0.428 0.457 0.490 0.462 0.456 -0.006
58 stickyfeet99 0.424 0.514 0.488 0.500 0.557 0.495 0.496 0.492 -0.005
13 dougpalm 0.615 0.604 0.529 0.552 0.666 0.534 0.583 0.579 -0.004
6 ybjsports 0.591 0.641 0.571 0.601 0.536 0.497 0.573 0.569 -0.004
21 jjgreen14 0.586 0.597 0.453 0.472 0.509 0.596 0.536 0.532 -0.004
31 beaneball 0.514 0.305 0.512 0.443 0.470 0.457 0.450 0.447 -0.004
72 toddcommish 0.434 0.579 0.442 0.466 0.441 0.528 0.482 0.478 -0.003
41 markeking 0.634 0.464 0.570 0.522 0.503 0.540 0.539 0.536 -0.003
36 Lazerhawks 0.564 0.519 0.493 0.527 0.472 0.589 0.527 0.525 -0.002
14 bardin 0.605 0.467 0.547 0.535 0.553 0.608 0.553 0.550 -0.002
80 glowguy 0.488 0.473 0.486 0.427 0.572 0.558 0.501 0.499 -0.002
57 kyleb63 0.541 0.458 0.531 0.491 0.436 0.476 0.489 0.487 -0.002
67 marlowe 0.524 0.567 0.522 0.462 0.354 0.487 0.486 0.485 -0.001
11 rbow923 0.551 0.553 0.591 0.550 0.563 0.540 0.558 0.557 -0.001
71 trd3 0.581 0.441 0.487 0.548 0.537 0.467 0.510 0.509 -0.001
47 whoscraig 0.512 0.462 0.527 0.476 0.583 0.482 0.507 0.506 -0.001
77 hacker7 0.575 0.545 0.449 0.403 0.499 0.435 0.484 0.486 0.001
45 ff09 0.434 0.391 0.407 0.535 0.466 0.376 0.435 0.436 0.001
46 ballantine 0.468 0.515 0.554 0.570 0.513 0.435 0.509 0.511 0.002
76 EasyE7273 0.491 0.492 0.504 0.483 0.450 0.472 0.482 0.484 0.002
51 Jdh34 0.515 0.464 0.503 0.452 0.476 0.500 0.485 0.488 0.003
15 buddhagamer 0.538 0.505 0.455 0.557 0.599 0.546 0.533 0.536 0.003
23 finn2030 0.473 0.468 0.523 0.478 0.510 0.466 0.486 0.492 0.005
74 skilly006 0.488 0.465 0.524 0.512 0.432 0.497 0.486 0.492 0.006
48 bheid408 0.398 0.558 0.518 0.464 0.487 0.461 0.481 0.488 0.007
88 alice 0.509 0.402 0.474 0.409 0.616 0.450 0.477 0.484 0.007
30 rmdriskill 0.457 0.567 0.555 0.477 0.559 0.454 0.512 0.519 0.007
83 thehuseman 0.491 0.510 0.529 0.513 0.521 0.492 0.509 0.516 0.007
1 WaitNSee 0.585 0.616 0.499 0.571 0.585 0.601 0.576 0.583 0.007
49 Donburgh 0.575 0.508 0.561 0.483 0.518 0.419 0.511 0.518 0.008
5 ArlenWilliam 0.642 0.544 0.532 0.703 0.592 0.654 0.611 0.619 0.008
44 odalisgagne 0.474 0.492 0.496 0.475 0.483 0.537 0.493 0.501 0.008
27 SpotSell 0.483 0.560 0.386 0.463 0.423 0.513 0.471 0.480 0.009
68 Fusion27s 0.494 0.481 0.494 0.482 0.519 0.575 0.508 0.517 0.010
89 zlionsfan 0.386 0.402 0.570 0.617 0.307 0.477 0.460 0.471 0.011
66 besterateam 0.524 0.522 0.515 0.409 0.551 0.481 0.500 0.511 0.011
8 mildnhazy 0.523 0.469 0.499 0.565 0.516 0.599 0.529 0.540 0.012
92 gewrite 0.300 0.235 0.418 0.414 0.372 0.459 0.366 0.379 0.012
12 jmissirlis 0.590 0.535 0.518 0.546 0.570 0.550 0.552 0.565 0.013
75 nordawg 0.499 0.463 0.527 0.427 0.430 0.451 0.466 0.480 0.014
65 dlchow 0.536 0.412 0.451 0.416 0.402 0.414 0.439 0.454 0.015
90 joshkvt 0.321 0.323 0.489 0.395 0.421 0.339 0.381 0.398 0.017
54 beauchamp 0.488 0.566 0.537 0.488 0.502 0.378 0.493 0.511 0.018
40 ejstockman 0.593 0.551 0.487 0.512 0.511 0.480 0.522 0.541 0.019
96 dorkster 0.473 0.473 0.458 0.332 0.509 0.508 0.459 0.479 0.021
62 ozomatli 0.484 0.449 0.490 0.494 0.505 0.560 0.497 0.520 0.023
60 razorclams 0.329 0.458 0.539 0.457 0.424 0.454 0.444 0.466 0.023
24 redsox666666 0.320 0.345 0.397 0.459 0.378 0.361 0.377 0.400 0.023
17 NappyRootz 0.541 0.506 0.550 0.602 0.603 0.391 0.532 0.558 0.025
82 shysters3 0.430 0.484 0.488 0.477 0.425 0.400 0.451 0.476 0.026
52 oskies 0.482 0.479 0.435 0.507 0.584 0.465 0.492 0.519 0.027
85 Oli35 0.400 0.400 0.384 0.295 0.347 0.449 0.379 0.407 0.028
53 zephyr1949 0.463 0.470 0.434 0.496 0.457 0.535 0.476 0.507 0.031
79 daronb 0.373 0.492 0.387 0.523 0.125 0.486 0.398 0.432 0.034
64 kjaskolski 0.495 0.422 0.494 0.357 0.391 0.496 0.443 0.479 0.037
19 contrarian23 0.601 0.448 0.473 0.453 0.507 0.413 0.483 0.524 0.041
94 npg32433 0.396 0.348 0.363 0.345 0.354 0.338 0.357 0.399 0.042
9/28/2015 9:42 AM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer

Here are the runs scored totals...

    Runs Runs Runs Runs Runs Runs Runs
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M Total
---------- ------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
5 ArlenWilliam 836 820 723 1099 752 963 5193
2 brianjw 943 944 723 972 702 853 5137
4 schwarze 944 812 748 919 767 865 5055
43 calhoop 807 752 662 1065 826 845 4957
52 oskies 885 806 652 882 907 806 4938
39 legaldh 697 1033 755 945 669 837 4936
31 beaneball 847 774 786 898 828 765 4898
17 NappyRootz 902 735 639 1027 732 838 4873
29 bigmc 816 777 571 848 929 889 4830
11 rbow923 849 710 647 1066 679 846 4797
1 WaitNSee 888 808 660 895 674 841 4766
13 dougpalm 930 774 636 744 832 816 4732
3 discodemo 907 807 683 853 689 774 4713
6 ybjsports 848 1023 641 791 699 710 4712
16 alleyviper 645 744 738 812 770 998 4707
63 mwammes 749 697 674 958 820 805 4703
10 yankeeso7 902 725 662 912 783 715 4699
61 Relkcirts 753 711 700 995 728 812 4699
30 rmdriskill 738 820 698 792 882 765 4695
50 yogi20 752 821 773 732 759 855 4692
14 bardin 813 705 741 810 779 840 4688
86 Chisock 881 721 731 814 704 820 4671
83 thehuseman 788 724 730 765 789 871 4667
71 trd3 816 751 583 908 737 856 4651
32 justinlee_24 875 673 619 952 729 785 4633
41 markeking 883 672 697 882 684 798 4616
51 Jdh34 898 767 711 857 687 691 4611
74 skilly006 816 809 769 772 709 719 4594
9 HoofHearted 808 695 744 783 711 842 4583
33 cubbies84 795 739 712 850 732 719 4547
56 Humdogs 824 685 657 844 694 833 4537
8 mildnhazy 691 677 661 871 812 816 4528
40 ejstockman 866 720 596 944 671 730 4527
48 bheid408 758 751 608 867 736 805 4525
7 jbohrman 772 766 615 768 846 740 4507
15 buddhagamer 748 694 599 862 825 777 4505
89 zlionsfan 866 720 813 916 576 614 4505
36 Lazerhawks 845 796 592 781 658 829 4501
55 crystalao 717 776 698 823 735 742 4491
12 jmissirlis 853 787 642 760 724 722 4488
46 ballantine 734 722 682 799 758 782 4477
44 odalisgagne 783 686 755 651 695 895 4465
70 Yaz2Schill 678 806 579 883 781 731 4458
69 magicdreamer 843 833 624 785 645 727 4457
38 firesalt 746 795 594 773 705 843 4456
58 stickyfeet99 800 735 612 789 775 735 4446
35 slainte 822 716 554 765 785 799 4441
67 marlowe 752 808 638 797 628 818 4441
25 sford 746 780 691 860 661 698 4436
90 joshkvt 808 572 665 964 808 609 4426
22 bighooze 733 701 776 773 639 783 4405
20 PennQuaker 763 770 718 758 655 740 4404
49 Donburgh 741 755 744 787 682 693 4402
26 jfranco77 746 756 687 917 566 721 4393
45 ff09 707 712 664 845 690 772 4390
28 batandball 745 765 672 740 654 800 4376
96 dorkster 808 786 588 587 690 907 4366
87 thebubbaq 735 721 645 692 819 750 4362
88 alice 688 667 651 783 883 682 4354
53 zephyr1949 729 676 586 790 704 864 4349
34 mllama54 644 743 682 832 660 784 4345
19 contrarian23 813 664 646 755 769 673 4320
42 hersheybear 688 792 653 772 666 747 4318
95 deathdealer 813 811 604 887 580 615 4310
62 ozomatli 723 694 589 733 637 933 4309
82 shysters3 732 739 637 763 654 778 4303
21 jjgreen14 749 790 632 623 704 802 4300
60 razorclams 743 665 662 816 693 701 4280
72 toddcommish 780 871 546 657 736 683 4273
80 glowguy 754 709 645 633 762 765 4268
91 tridentric 767 768 647 755 653 637 4227
47 whoscraig 794 695 642 722 723 646 4222
77 hacker7 760 814 550 739 713 646 4222
68 Fusion27s 721 656 621 690 739 750 4177
78 sprintracer 907 631 590 581 674 777 4160
65 dlchow 801 687 480 785 665 739 4157
27 SpotSell 743 684 472 939 627 689 4154
54 beauchamp 760 665 629 643 641 792 4130
81 dodgebob 761 581 563 797 656 734 4092
59 mick33 612 741 640 699 677 720 4089
73 DarthDurron 680 644 722 702 635 703 4086
66 besterateam 775 756 550 604 773 627 4085
18 mpitt76 716 720 582 675 712 660 4065
57 kyleb63 686 604 674 737 568 793 4062
64 kjaskolski 793 719 620 593 551 745 4021
84 River_Rats 615 637 510 791 761 703 4017
75 nordawg 792 699 617 664 618 621 4011
92 gewrite 568 674 683 771 573 712 3981
24 redsox666666 611 572 644 810 655 679 3971
85 Oli35 749 529 634 786 563 635 3896
23 finn2030 625 663 634 789 616 562 3889
76 EasyE7273 748 641 616 610 590 651 3856
79 daronb 609 711 525 732 607 656 3840
93 evil_twin 646 546 544 939 511 610 3796
37 rickysdad44 726 697 528 548 595 650 3744
94 npg32433 787 575 548 671 616 517 3714

9/28/2015 9:48 AM (edited)
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Here are the top owners in fewest runs allowed...
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M Total
---------- ------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
3 discodemo 792 537 574 702 560 620 3785
25 sford 630 656 643 682 568 606 3785
2 brianjw 671 578 604 784 543 642 3822
18 mpitt76 570 677 602 693 699 609 3850
28 batandball 599 609 664 750 581 648 3851
55 crystalao 588 512 731 749 653 628 3861
61 Relkcirts 637 530 657 728 664 689 3905
33 cubbies84 716 619 653 711 579 660 3938
13 dougpalm 731 615 596 665 573 760 3940
29 bigmc 681 632 524 750 627 733 3947
38 firesalt 794 600 540 687 598 729 3948
35 slainte 722 632 576 659 622 738 3949
7 jbohrman 691 669 646 648 662 647 3963
32 justinlee_24 647 545 566 864 633 709 3964
21 jjgreen14 620 639 701 663 690 652 3965
37 rickysdad44 882 590 514 696 583 702 3967
22 bighooze 729 703 583 625 711 639 3990
6 ybjsports 699 763 545 634 646 715 4002
12 jmissirlis 705 731 617 689 621 648 4011
23 finn2030 663 711 602 826 602 608 4012
76 EasyE7273 763 653 611 634 660 692 4013
10 yankeeso7 715 707 598 638 742 627 4027
16 alleyviper 609 775 561 707 591 786 4029
1 WaitNSee 743 627 662 772 556 677 4037
84 River_Rats 598 618 617 854 704 661 4052
5 ArlenWilliam 611 747 674 713 614 694 4053
66 besterateam 736 721 531 738 693 654 4073
68 Fusion27s 731 684 629 717 709 637 4107
69 magicdreamer 766 796 617 757 532 665 4133
57 kyleb63 627 664 630 751 657 833 4162
47 whoscraig 775 754 605 760 602 672 4168
15 buddhagamer 690 686 662 765 666 705 4174
14 bardin 648 756 670 753 695 666 4188
20 PennQuaker 639 666 754 734 653 744 4190
36 Lazerhawks 738 765 601 737 699 685 4225
34 mllama54 777 721 684 699 590 759 4230
41 markeking 662 726 596 843 680 734 4241
54 beauchamp 779 573 578 660 638 1017 4245
8 mildnhazy 657 724 662 760 786 659 4248
11 rbow923 763 632 525 966 590 778 4254
80 glowguy 774 751 665 742 651 675 4258
4 schwarze 721 722 624 799 699 710 4275
42 hersheybear 728 763 572 860 604 755 4282
78 sprintracer 812 832 636 571 577 878 4306
40 ejstockman 712 644 614 921 655 761 4307
49 Donburgh 629 742 651 815 655 824 4316
75 nordawg 793 756 581 778 721 692 4321
62 ozomatli 748 774 602 743 630 825 4322
77 hacker7 645 741 618 905 715 744 4368
39 legaldh 683 704 718 912 623 757 4397
26 jfranco77 748 703 695 868 666 725 4405
46 ballantine 785 699 605 687 737 894 4407
27 SpotSell 770 598 618 1010 743 670 4409
87 thebubbaq 746 736 656 742 720 818 4418
72 toddcommish 894 738 623 708 834 642 4439
73 DarthDurron 824 757 636 818 698 719 4452
59 mick33 671 728 749 840 697 800 4485
19 contrarian23 653 744 686 833 758 812 4486
58 stickyfeet99 934 713 629 789 685 743 4493
44 odalisgagne 826 698 761 688 721 830 4524
9 HoofHearted 845 705 660 768 815 737 4530
81 dodgebob 789 794 592 840 769 752 4536
64 kjaskolski 801 848 628 814 705 751 4547
56 Humdogs 793 738 700 860 716 743 4550
71 trd3 686 850 601 823 680 915 4555
53 zephyr1949 788 721 680 796 771 804 4560
88 alice 675 824 689 944 689 759 4580
83 thehuseman 803 708 685 745 755 885 4581
17 NappyRootz 830 726 571 835 581 1044 4587
67 marlowe 714 700 607 862 865 841 4589
30 rmdriskill 808 711 618 830 781 842 4590
43 calhoop 784 807 624 1051 671 735 4672
86 Chisock 905 765 624 843 662 878 4677
74 skilly006 836 870 731 752 819 724 4732
50 yogi20 862 781 673 853 767 802 4738
48 bheid408 936 663 584 933 757 873 4746
65 dlchow 742 830 539 933 821 885 4750
96 dorkster 854 831 646 854 677 893 4755
51 Jdh34 871 827 706 945 724 691 4764
91 tridentric 833 779 747 829 780 809 4777
82 shysters3 848 765 654 801 770 956 4794
60 razorclams 1064 729 607 892 815 773 4880
70 Yaz2Schill 1020 850 606 882 741 818 4917
89 zlionsfan 1088 886 701 716 889 647 4927
52 oskies 917 842 751 869 762 867 5008
45 ff09 814 896 811 786 743 998 5048
94 npg32433 975 808 747 936 850 752 5068
63 mwammes 702 762 775 1185 681 1001 5106
85 Oli35 922 666 817 1205 794 710 5114
79 daronb 806 723 681 697 1543 676 5126
24 redsox666666 910 810 806 882 852 914 5174
93 evil_twin 990 826 905 784 862 881 5248
95 deathdealer 1265 917 604 969 800 791 5346
92 gewrite 894 1212 814 921 764 777 5382
31 beaneball 823 1162 766 1005 880 837 5473
90 joshkvt 1166 852 681 1183 949 869 5700
9/28/2015 9:47 AM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
And this table represents the run differential...
    Diff Diff Diff Diff Diff Diff Diff
Pre-Rank Owner 70M 80M 90M 100M 110M 120M Total
---------- ------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
2 brianjw 272 366 119 188 159 211 1315
5 ArlenWilliam 225 73 49 386 138 269 1140
3 discodemo 115 270 109 151 129 154 928
29 bigmc 135 145 47 98 302 156 883
61 Relkcirts 116 181 43 267 64 123 794
13 dougpalm 199 159 40 79 259 56 792
4 schwarze 223 90 124 120 68 155 780
1 WaitNSee 145 181 -2 123 118 164 729
6 ybjsports 149 260 96 157 53 -5 710
16 alleyviper 36 -31 177 105 179 212 678
10 yankeeso7 187 18 64 274 41 88 672
32 justinlee_24 228 128 53 88 96 76 669
25 sford 116 124 48 178 93 92 651
55 crystalao 129 264 -33 74 82 114 630
33 cubbies84 79 120 59 139 153 59 609
7 jbohrman 81 97 -31 120 184 93 544
11 rbow923 86 78 122 100 89 68 543
39 legaldh 14 329 37 33 46 80 539
28 batandball 146 156 8 -10 73 152 525
38 firesalt -48 195 54 86 107 114 508
14 bardin 165 -51 71 57 84 174 500
35 slainte 100 84 -22 106 163 61 492
12 jmissirlis 148 56 25 71 103 74 477
22 bighooze 4 -2 193 148 -72 144 415
41 markeking 221 -54 101 39 4 64 375
21 jjgreen14 129 151 -69 -40 14 150 335
15 buddhagamer 58 8 -63 97 159 72 331
69 magicdreamer 77 37 7 28 113 62 324
17 NappyRootz 72 9 68 192 151 -206 286
43 calhoop 23 -55 38 14 155 110 285
8 mildnhazy 34 -47 -1 111 26 157 280
36 Lazerhawks 107 31 -9 44 -41 144 276
40 ejstockman 154 76 -18 23 16 -31 220
18 mpitt76 146 43 -20 -18 13 51 215
20 PennQuaker 124 104 -36 24 2 -4 214
34 mllama54 -133 22 -2 133 70 25 115
30 rmdriskill -70 109 80 -38 101 -77 105
71 trd3 130 -99 -18 85 57 -59 96
49 Donburgh 112 13 93 -28 27 -131 86
83 thehuseman -15 16 45 20 34 -14 86
68 Fusion27s -10 -28 -8 -27 30 113 70
46 ballantine -51 23 77 112 21 -112 70
47 whoscraig 19 -59 37 -38 121 -26 54
9 HoofHearted -37 -10 84 15 -104 105 53
42 hersheybear -40 29 81 -88 62 -8 36
66 besterateam 39 35 19 -134 80 -27 12
80 glowguy -20 -42 -20 -109 111 90 10
86 Chisock -24 -44 107 -29 42 -58 -6
26 jfranco77 -2 53 -8 49 -100 -4 -12
62 ozomatli -25 -80 -13 -10 7 108 -13
56 Humdogs 31 -53 -43 -16 -22 90 -13
84 River_Rats 17 19 -107 -63 57 42 -35
50 yogi20 -110 40 100 -121 -8 53 -46
58 stickyfeet99 -134 22 -17 0 90 -8 -47
87 thebubbaq -11 -15 -11 -50 99 -68 -56
44 odalisgagne -43 -12 -6 -37 -26 65 -59
52 oskies -32 -36 -99 13 145 -61 -70
57 kyleb63 59 -60 44 -14 -89 -40 -100
54 beauchamp -19 92 51 -17 3 -225 -115
23 finn2030 -38 -48 32 -37 14 -46 -123
74 skilly006 -20 -61 38 20 -110 -5 -138
78 sprintracer 95 -201 -46 10 97 -101 -146
77 hacker7 115 73 -68 -166 -2 -98 -146
67 marlowe 38 108 31 -65 -237 -23 -148
51 Jdh34 27 -60 5 -88 -37 0 -153
76 EasyE7273 -15 -12 5 -24 -70 -41 -157
72 toddcommish -114 133 -77 -51 -98 41 -166
19 contrarian23 160 -80 -40 -78 11 -139 -166
53 zephyr1949 -59 -45 -94 -6 -67 60 -211
48 bheid408 -178 88 24 -66 -21 -68 -221
37 rickysdad44 -156 107 14 -148 12 -52 -223
88 alice 13 -157 -38 -161 194 -77 -226
27 SpotSell -27 86 -146 -71 -116 19 -255
75 nordawg -1 -57 36 -114 -103 -71 -310
73 DarthDurron -144 -113 86 -116 -63 -16 -366
96 dorkster -46 -45 -58 -267 13 14 -389
59 mick33 -59 13 -109 -141 -20 -80 -396
63 mwammes 47 -65 -101 -227 139 -196 -403
89 zlionsfan -222 -166 112 200 -313 -33 -422
81 dodgebob -28 -213 -29 -43 -113 -18 -444
70 Yaz2Schill -342 -44 -27 1 40 -87 -459
82 shysters3 -116 -26 -17 -38 -116 -178 -491
64 kjaskolski -8 -129 -8 -221 -154 -6 -526
91 tridentric -66 -11 -100 -74 -127 -172 -550
31 beaneball 24 -388 20 -107 -52 -72 -575
65 dlchow 59 -143 -59 -148 -156 -146 -593
60 razorclams -321 -64 55 -76 -122 -72 -600
45 ff09 -107 -184 -147 59 -53 -226 -658
95 deathdealer -452 -106 0 -82 -220 -176 -1036
24 redsox666666 -299 -238 -162 -72 -197 -235 -1203
85 Oli35 -173 -137 -183 -419 -231 -75 -1218
90 joshkvt -358 -280 -16 -219 -141 -260 -1274
79 daronb -197 -12 -156 35 -936 -20 -1286
94 npg32433 -188 -233 -199 -265 -234 -235 -1354
92 gewrite -326 -538 -131 -150 -191 -65 -1401
93 evil_twin -344 -280 -361 155 -351 -271 -1452
9/28/2015 9:50 AM
mildnhazy
Posts: 796 (0)
Hall of Famer
321
Rookie
Great analysis schwarze.  I disagree, however, on the importance or informative nature of the exp vs real winning percentage in the sim.  A great example is my 110 mil team.  Exp win % was .516 vs the real win % of .568.  My two mop-up guys gave up a whopping 204 of my 786 RA.  Nappy Rootz - who finished in 2nd place in my division - had a .603 exp win % vs .543 real.  His mop-up guys gave up 13 runs (and both of them finished with ERAs at 2.50 and under!).  This is an extreme example but my use of mop-up guys tends to skew my percentages in most leagues.

It would be great if you could do that analysis excluding all mop-up pitchers.  Of course then you still have the luck factor on the offensive side of the ball with the random 30+ run games your offence can get in an extreme mop-up game.
9/28/2015 10:25 AM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Yes, I agree.  Teams who use mopup guys to save innings (which is a viable strategy) will look like they are luckier than they should.  I think the 1-run W-L record is a better measure of lucky vs. unlucky.
9/28/2015 1:36 PM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Thru 113 games, I was 24 games under .500 (72-96, .429) in 1-run games.  Based on my record in 2+ runs games at that time (294-216, .576), I should have had a .522 winning percentage in 1-run games.  The difference of -0.093 would be ranked first overall.  I did make a bit of a comeback, going 46-38 in 1-run games the last part of the season.  So I only ended up 9th most unluckiest team.  It's a good thing too, because I am going to need every point to make it into Round 2.
9/28/2015 1:48 PM
schwarze
Posts: 44816 (1)
Hall of Famer
1842 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
Of course, all the 1-run game analysis totally ignores roster makeup.  Teams with especially good bullpens and/or a good bench of pinch hitters playing in low-scoring ballpark might be more likely to win close games than a team with below average relief pitchers and home run hitters in a high-scoring ballpark.  That type of analysis would require a lot more data, that I currently don't have easy access to.
9/28/2015 1:55 PM
brianjw
Posts: 1260 (0)
Hall of Famer
292
Veteran
I agree the 1-run rate is more representative of luck than run differential. I neither use 200K mop-ups, nor rest hitters in blow outs. That's why I end up topping the run differential charts by a lot, but it doesn't mean my teams are unlucky. I had about average luck in 1 run games, and that seems about right for how the season went.

That is, I had about average luck in the regular season. A 1-4 record in 1-run games in the divisional series didn't help my chances of winning it all...
9/28/2015 3:12 PM
brianjw
Posts: 1260 (0)
Hall of Famer
292
Veteran
That said, I don't think good bullpens make a huge difference to 1-run result. A lot of my 1-run losses are games I was losing by 1 run after 6 innings, and then my bullpen threw 3 shutout innings, but I failed to score. If I had a worse bullpen, I might lose those games by 2 or 3, and have a better record in 1-run games.

I think the same thing happens in real life baseball. A good bullpen can preserve a 1-run lead, but also preserve a 1-run deficit, or a 2-run lead, and the effect of these  things on records in 1-run games cancels out.
9/28/2015 3:14 PM
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