I was wondering if there is a special factor in conference tournaments that allows Sim-Ai's to be more competitive?
Specifically, Sim-Ai's with say 75% upperclassmen seem to really overperform by shooting 5 to 10 percentage points higher than they did in the regular season overall, and often 15% higher than they did against humans.

Small sample size, but in the last half dozen tourneys I've been in, these teams tended to shoot way above their regular season average.

So last night in the legendary Naismith Great Northeast, we two humans who both went 15-1, both lost.

I lost to Newbury, which shot 46.2% on the season, but hit 51% last night. They also shot 36 free throws, amazingly missing 19 of them, so their 4 point win should easily have been double digits. In our regular season meeting, where i won by 12 on their court, i held them to 37% shooting and only 19 free throws.

At the same time, human coached WNEC lost to Emerson, who they beat by 10 in the regular season. Emerson shot 47.9% on the year, but 52% last night. Regular season Emerson shot only 37.7% vs WNEC in their home loss.

Both Emerson and Newbury have 9 upperclassmen.

I would chalk it up to small sample size, which I've done in the past, but a similar pattern has continued to happen elsewhere, like the last couple of years in the Crum Patriot CT, and other conferences I've been in like the last couple of Conn College Wooden NESCAC CT's that i was in (2 seasons ago)... again, not just my teams, but conference-mate humans with gaudy W-L records in the regular season, 16-0, 15-1, 14-2, falling to average Sim's with 75% upperclassmen that they hammered in the regular season, but which shot way above average, like 58%, 60%, 62% from the floor.

So, i don't think this is a bad thing, just more trying to understand it to make adjustments and improve my future game results.

Posted by npb7768 on 10/3/2015 11:14:00 AM (view original):
I was wondering if there is a special factor in conference tournaments that allows Sim-Ai's to be more competitive?
Specifically, Sim-Ai's with say 75% upperclassmen seem to really overperform by shooting 5 to 10 percentage points higher than they did in the regular season overall, and often 15% higher than they did against humans.

Small sample size, but in the last half dozen tourneys I've been in, these teams tended to shoot way above their regular season average.

So last night in the legendary Naismith Great Northeast, we two humans who both went 15-1, both lost.

I lost to Newbury, which shot 46.2% on the season, but hit 51% last night. They also shot 36 free throws, amazingly missing 19 of them, so their 4 point win should easily have been double digits. In our regular season meeting, where i won by 12 on their court, i held them to 37% shooting and only 19 free throws.

At the same time, human coached WNEC lost to Emerson, who they beat by 10 in the regular season. Emerson shot 47.9% on the year, but 52% last night. Regular season Emerson shot only 37.7% vs WNEC in their home loss.

Both Emerson and Newbury have 9 upperclassmen.

I would chalk it up to small sample size, which I've done in the past, but a similar pattern has continued to happen elsewhere, like the last couple of years in the Crum Patriot CT, and other conferences I've been in like the last couple of Conn College Wooden NESCAC CT's that i was in (2 seasons ago)... again, not just my teams, but conference-mate humans with gaudy W-L records in the regular season, 16-0, 15-1, 14-2, falling to average Sim's with 75% upperclassmen that they hammered in the regular season, but which shot way above average, like 58%, 60%, 62% from the floor.

So, i don't think this is a bad thing, just more trying to understand it to make adjustments and improve my future game results.

never seen anything like that. its actually the reverse for me. i tend to not care during the season, with teams who are in conferences with sims, and will drop some sim games. in the CT, i normally feel like i can beat any sim regardless of how ****** my team is, and it usually goes that way. i suspect its just small sample size... note that sims shoot a lot of 3s and play a smaller group of players more heavily than the average coach, which inherently makes their performances more volatile. that volatility is probably just happening to come out at the worst possible time for you. 

I guess I was wrong I assumed there was like a increase in upsets in the CT through variance or something?  IDK how that would actually work in the engine though, but that was a thought I always had

Posted by the0nlyis on 10/3/2015 3:09:00 PM (view original):
I guess I was wrong I assumed there was like a increase in upsets in the CT through variance or something?  IDK how that would actually work in the engine though, but that was a thought I always had

people have suggested stuff like this forever but its almost absolutely all false, both admins have confirmed it repeatedly and from my own experience i am virtually positive the CT and NT run off the same engine as the regular season.

in fact, there is LESS variance in the CT and NT, on a per game basis, because HCA is out of the picture. i think the reason people feel oppositely is because more attention is paid to those games. the CT and NT as a whole have more variance that the regular season as a whole because its smaller sample size, that probably plays in, too. but on a per game basis, definitely not.

We need neutral site non-conference games. 

I've seen some sim teams play like world beaters in the ct after I dismantled them in conference play. Played them at their house destroyed them. Played the same way at the neutral site and been beaten. When I'm favored

Posted by trail on 10/4/2015 12:46:00 AM (view original):
We need neutral site non-conference games. 

that reminds me of what Maryland used to say in the real world when the ACC tunament was always in Greensboro

I have lost two years in a row to a sim in the CT that i destroyed both at home and away during the regular season. I would believe it.

Bump, because this just happened to me. 200 RPI sim team I had zero issues with twice in the regular season just inexplicably knocked me out of the CT. Sims always play us way tougher in the CT.

Had a season several years ago where I went 26-4 overall, beat the eventual national champion, the eventual runner up and 2 other Elite 8 teams. I was 2-2 against sims for the season and lost in the first round as a 3 seed to a 14 sim with 6 Sr.

Well, there is no special sauce for upsets or variance in the CT or NT. 

Every single play is a RANDOM event though.  So, it is possible for something very improbable to happen in any given play.  If you have a couple of fouls happen to put a couple of your players on the bench, etc. then that can have an impact.

Posted by hughesjr on 11/10/2015 9:17:00 PM (view original):
Well, there is no special sauce for upsets or variance in the CT or NT. 

Every single play is a RANDOM event though.  So, it is possible for something very improbable to happen in any given play.  If you have a couple of fouls happen to put a couple of your players on the bench, etc. then that can have an impact.

I mean, I get all that and that there shouldn't be reason based on the way the game is set up for the CT to be any different. However, playing in a conference with a decent number of sims, it's been a noticeable pattern to see sim teams that you beat by 20+ twice in the regular season (and have the talent gap to validate it) turn around and keep it within 5 or beat you in the CT. This is again anecdotal, but I just had a 200+ RPI sim knock me out of my CT (after easily beating them twice before with a top-to-bottom superior roster), and in my next game I beat a top 10 human team in the NT. On its own that can certainly happen once in a blue moon (National finalist Wisconsin losing to Rutgers, anyone?), but I'm always played really tough by sims in the CT and find it interesting that a number of others have seen the same thing.