It's pathetic, really. There are only 62 human-coached teams. That's only 16%. This business model cannot be sustainable, can it? I would think that at these numbers, *maybe* they break even, but there's no way this is profitable is it?

I would think there's almost zero cost for them, so break even isn't a concern.  This whole sim can be on one server sitting in a server room somewhere run by Fox.  Sure, seble is paid to work on things, but I'd imagine his cost is spread across multiple games.  Add up all the worlds and all the people still paying (I still pay, albeit at a discounted rate, 3 years in) here and there and they're more than fine financially I would think.

The big costs would be advertising (which is almost, if not, nil now) and cost of dev.  I would think this has been earning money for a long time now.

And I realize that it doesn't cost fox anymore to run the engine with 50 or 5,000 Sims, but if you have a good product (and contrary to any nay-sayers, this is a GOOD product, even if there is room for improvement), how can they be so indifferent to marketing?!? With the popularity of fantasy leagues and simulation video games, this could be huge. It's such a shame it's left but the wayside.

I just bought a ten pack for $0.10. And I put it on my credit card. The processing fee cost them more than the payment.

That's what happens when you don't market the games at all. It's hard to bring in new players that way.

Posted by sullytoo on 10/27/2015 8:17:00 AM (view original):
I just bought a ten pack for $0.10. And I put it on my credit card. The processing fee cost them more than the payment.

Their plenty of people who don't win even half as much as you you
I still pay a decent amount and I'd say I'm above average. You have to think each season only 16 coaches break even since isn't a s16 in rewards the minimum to keep rewards higher than cost, and you can easily find 10 20 coaches each division that never make the NT and 10 20 coaches that never get past the first round, all you need is a few whales to make up for this few that cinsistently win.

I will agree there business model is dumb, because their whole model is revloved around keeping the elites and the absolute worst. Their is a huge early cost to even try out the game as 1 4.95 season doesn't show you and you still need a few seasons around 4 to get your first class through that's sucks so that's already basically 50 bucks to get your first attempt at the game, the if you don't win you get what like 8 bucks in credits in that time period and have to pay either 42 or 92 dollars really too keep playing.

The entry fee is too high I have multiple friends that have laughed at the idea of playing just because it is so expensive to begun with they won't even pay to try it out.

You really need to lower the starting payments and develop a mobile app not a mobile website but an app in the app store that will increase traffic enough I believe.

Later I'll go through and estimate maybe how much they make per world by looking at all players, but yeh they really don't have any expenses at all, isn't seble a fox fantasy worker and does HD part time maybe for extra money? There is not anyone else, I've said this before seble is customer support and he gets forum alerts to his phone if we start complaining or about tickets with certain key words so he can fix it. But there is no one else working on this game.

Only - I think perhaps the cost is dependent on your target demographic. I'm assuming most of your friends that you've asked to play are in college and therefore probably don't have much money to spend on stuff like this. I've just been able to fill up 10 spots in a conference by getting friends to play and when I told them it was 5 bucks to play the first season, they didn't even bat an eye. But I'm a little older and all those people have jobs with a decent amount of disposable income so I'm sure that's the difference.

I always equate everything to drinking. I can either spend 5-10 bucks on season of HD and get ~2 months of entertainment or I can buy a couple beers at the bar which is gone in minutes and gives me a headache the next day. I'm certainly not loaded by any means but to me, it's not an expensive game at all to get in to. Those 4 seasons lasts the better part of a year and for 50 bucks, that seems like a good use of money compared to what other forms of entertainment I can spend it on.

True my demographic is probably the 2nd worst represented besides the 14-19 year old group since a lot don't even have had a job yet.  I understand the "target"demographic is probably the finished school, full time job, I don't think marital status makes a huge difference, maybe just affects # of teams and forum activity.  But you have to think while their is a huge demographic they have they probably miss out on a huge college demographic or even recent grad market.

I may probably be biased since I am in that demo.  But at some point there's a point where it makes more sense to charge a bunch of customers less and have more turnover than a small group of customers than is slowly dwindling.

I think they're doing better as they are now than substantially dropping costs to try to expand their market by what?  Honestly, it could be 20-30%.  But the kind of cost cutting to appeal to most college students is going to cost more than enough to cover that edge.

Think of it this way.  You can keep a team going for months, even without winning anything, for the price of one day of golf.  You can keep the team going for several years for the price of a decent driver.  Paintball costs months worth of HD.  A decent baseball mitt costs 1-2 years.  Most leagues and tournaments on FanDuel or DraftKings cost at least $10 to enter, so that's a month.  This is far from expensive in the world of sports entertainment.

I did a rough estimate before of how much they probably bring in and posted it.  but I can't find it.  it wouldn't be too hard to figure out.  I know a lot of guys talk about how much they play for free, but really only Sweet 16 and beyond get a free season or more.  So if most worlds have around 75-100 human coached teams at each divison and there are 10 worlds... that's around 250-300 human coached teams.  most worlds are 45 days.... anyhow - 15-20% of that taken away for free credits... 8 seasons/year for most worlds.  Rough estimate: 250 human coacned teams per 1 world x $12.95 = $3,237 each season, minus $650 or so for free credits (that's 20%) = $2,587.... x 10 worlds = $25,870... x 8 times per year = $206,960.  two/day worlds woud earn more...  you get the idea, unless my math is way off....

you actually could count number of players each world with some work, and figure out the exact percentage in free credits for each season, and factor how many seasons their are yr, and arrive at a very accurate number I would think.

I just went through Tark and in the past 5 seasons only 8 coaches that earned enough credits to cover another 5 pack(or in other terms can play for free).

8 coaches play for free
and
11 coaches were between 0 and 25 dollars short. Or under $5 a month.

Everyone else was over paying more than $5 a month

Again this is just based on 1 world so we don't know how coaches did in other worlds so coaches in another world maybe successful enough to cover or subsidize Tark.

So 148 coaches 5% play for free and 7% are paying under 5 dollars a season

The rest are then paying between 5 and just under 11 dollars a season since everyone gets at least the dollar and change in credits.

I'll maybe do D2 and D3 since the dynamics of divisions probably change how many people break even and so, so I'll just go on the D1 population for now.

127 D1 in Naismith
123 in Wooden
123 in Rupp
133 Smith
123 IBA
118 Allen
117 Crum
149 Tark
132 Knight
134 Phelan

So 864 for the 1x and 415 for the 2x

So just take 5% that play for free and 7% pay under $5 a season and the rest are between 5 and just under 11 a season.

Average the under $5 to $2.5 a season and $7.5 for the rest between 5 and 11.

For the 1x that's:

5% of 864 is 43 playing for free
7% of 864 is 61 paying $2.5 a season
760 remaining coaches paying $7.5 a season

61* 2.5= $152.5 a season
760* 7.5= $5,700 a season

so $5852.5 a season from the 1x worlds which are 45 days a season and about 8 seasons a year.

so $46,820 per year from the 1x worlds.(Just under 4K a month)

5% of 415 is 21 playing for free
7% of 415 is 29 paying $2.5 a season
365 remaining coaches paying $7.5 a season

29* 2.5= $72.5 a season
365* 7.5= $2737.5 a season

so $2810 a season from the 2x worlds which are 30 days a season and about 12 seasons a year.

so $33720 per year from the 2x worlds.(2810 a month)

So $46,820 + $33,720 is $80,540 a year.

Just from D1 coaches.  Just a rough estimation I'm not sure what the +/- is 5/10,000?  So in the ranges of 70,000-90,000 a year from D1.

I have no idea the extra costs of running the servers.  And I'd guess seble isn't making more than 5K extra a year from doing this(he real job is part of the fox fantasy sports team, correct?)

I have no idea the extra server costs to store and do the computery stuff if anyone could give a guesstimation on that I can add it in.

So again ~80,000 a year from 1 division.  I could see D2 even bringing in more money since I think it's the most balanced meaning less coaches are breaking even and at D3 could go either way since you have the long established coaches who'd never think about paying again and then those new coaches and coaches that aren't good.  I can do a world analysis for D2/D3 if we want a clearer picture.  But we can just go ahead and guess around 70-90K if the coach numbers are close enough.  Meaning 210,000 to 270,000 a year for a game that has very little expenses at all.  I'd guess there's no way they make less than 250K if not 260K.  But thats dependant on how much it probably costs to run the servers since I have no idea.

My point being since they're is a clear problem with gaining new members and keeping either new or existing members, you need to look at what the problem is, is it the cost of playing the game(probably a factor for new coaches and a bigger problem for younger coaches) or the lack of updates, probably a factor for coaches who grow stale of the game.

If they figure the problem is the upfront money cost then maybe lowering or structuring the way seasons can be bought and if it isn't the money but the lack of updates I'm sure there is more than 1 person employed but Fox/WIS to take up coding for the game as a part time job.  Increasing updates.

I'm not surprised. It's impossible to get promoted in D1 and the recruits are so bad A- SEC teams are taking 530 rated players.

You are REALLY complaining about $5 a month? Seriously??? Cut out one McDonald's meal and you have it paid for. Saying this game is too expensive is laughable.