I just went through Tark and in the past 5 seasons only 8 coaches that earned enough credits to cover another 5 pack(or in other terms can play for free).

8 coaches play for free
and
11 coaches were between 0 and 25 dollars short. Or under $5 a month.

Everyone else was over paying more than $5 a month

Again this is just based on 1 world so we don't know how coaches did in other worlds so coaches in another world maybe successful enough to cover or subsidize Tark.

So 148 coaches 5% play for free and 7% are paying under 5 dollars a season

The rest are then paying between 5 and just under 11 dollars a season since everyone gets at least the dollar and change in credits.

I'll maybe do D2 and D3 since the dynamics of divisions probably change how many people break even and so, so I'll just go on the D1 population for now.

127 D1 in Naismith
123 in Wooden
123 in Rupp
133 Smith
123 IBA
118 Allen
117 Crum
149 Tark
132 Knight
134 Phelan

So 864 for the 1x and 415 for the 2x

So just take 5% that play for free and 7% pay under $5 a season and the rest are between 5 and just under 11 a season.

Average the under $5 to $2.5 a season and $7.5 for the rest between 5 and 11.

For the 1x that's:

5% of 864 is 43 playing for free
7% of 864 is 61 paying $2.5 a season
760 remaining coaches paying $7.5 a season

61* 2.5= $152.5 a season
760* 7.5= $5,700 a season

so $5852.5 a season from the 1x worlds which are 45 days a season and about 8 seasons a year.

so $46,820 per year from the 1x worlds.(Just under 4K a month)

5% of 415 is 21 playing for free
7% of 415 is 29 paying $2.5 a season
365 remaining coaches paying $7.5 a season

29* 2.5= $72.5 a season
365* 7.5= $2737.5 a season

so $2810 a season from the 2x worlds which are 30 days a season and about 12 seasons a year.

so $33720 per year from the 2x worlds.(2810 a month)

So $46,820 + $33,720 is $80,540 a year.

Just from D1 coaches.  Just a rough estimation I'm not sure what the +/- is 5/10,000?  So in the ranges of 70,000-90,000 a year from D1.

I have no idea the extra costs of running the servers.  And I'd guess seble isn't making more than 5K extra a year from doing this(he real job is part of the fox fantasy sports team, correct?)

I have no idea the extra server costs to store and do the computery stuff if anyone could give a guesstimation on that I can add it in.

So again ~80,000 a year from 1 division.  I could see D2 even bringing in more money since I think it's the most balanced meaning less coaches are breaking even and at D3 could go either way since you have the long established coaches who'd never think about paying again and then those new coaches and coaches that aren't good.  I can do a world analysis for D2/D3 if we want a clearer picture.  But we can just go ahead and guess around 70-90K if the coach numbers are close enough.  Meaning 210,000 to 270,000 a year for a game that has very little expenses at all.  I'd guess there's no way they make less than 250K if not 260K.  But thats dependant on how much it probably costs to run the servers since I have no idea.

My point being since they're is a clear problem with gaining new members and keeping either new or existing members, you need to look at what the problem is, is it the cost of playing the game(probably a factor for new coaches and a bigger problem for younger coaches) or the lack of updates, probably a factor for coaches who grow stale of the game.

If they figure the problem is the upfront money cost then maybe lowering or structuring the way seasons can be bought and if it isn't the money but the lack of updates I'm sure there is more than 1 person employed but Fox/WIS to take up coding for the game as a part time job.  Increasing updates.

If you think certain parts should be bolded to make it clearer let me know and I'll edit it.

Also Disclaimer, I could be completely wrong in some of my assumptions, and D2/D3 could be a totally different beast that makes way more or way less than what my D1 Tark model says as well as world dynamics being different than Tark D1 meaning more coaches are playing for free or more into the sub $5 a season range.

Also need to think about seriously advertising if you're making ~250K and a few thousand dollars of advertising adding a certain number of new coaches at some price means advertising could make a lot of sense.  Especially with a March Madness Spot, advertising looks to be about 1,500$ for a 30 second advertisement on averge, going after some early games(maybe 1,000 per add spend 10-20K on a few first round games)  I mean look at what fanduel has done with the number of new members they gained and wis doesn't have the problem of being declared illegal(granted we also don't really pay money out)

Another way to look at it:

how many coaches per world (all divisions).... lets say 350,  could be as much as 400, but lets say 350.  ( i know tark has less than 70 humans in d3)
and lets just say they get $10 per season (forget about credits for now)   since that is the 10 pack cost.  probably closer to $11 or 12 but lets say $10 for now
(im also leaving out the $4.95 seasons since it doesnt seem there are a huge number of those  .. as evidenced by the lack of new coaches)

So that's $3,500 per world per season ( before credits)

credits is a stable amount regardless of number of humans based on the current system (except for credits "claimed" by sims which i assume is a pretty small number)
roughly $5 per NT game won.   there are 63 NT games per division or $315 times three divisions is $945 (or roughly a $1000)
  I cant recall exactly what the NT 1st round loser (maybe $3?) gets or the PIT teams (maybe $2?) or the connsolation prize.  (maybe $1?)  
there should be about 260 humans that get one of these lesser rewards,  so lets just say thats $500 per world

So I would assume they profit about $2000 per world per season.   

       Seven 1x worlds  times 8 seasons per year per world is 56 seasons
plus three 2x worlds times 12 seaosns per year per world is 36 seasons
 so 92 seasons total.

So I figure the net income is about $184,000 per year total.

I still agree with the assumption that advertising could increase that fairly significantly.   and with very little added cost other than the advertising.  maybe its too small of a fish to worry about?

I wish theyd sell the whole thing to gillispie or one of the other superusers who could make a decent chunk of change on it while improving the user to admin interaction (or so i would assume)

Hire a couple of programmers and that money is gone.

Sell to a programmer and everyone is happy!! Lol

Honestly if cost is a factor then you should be using that money for food anyway.

Posted by mullycj on 10/28/2015 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Honestly if cost is a factor then you should be using that money for food anyway.

I think its more towards how freemium games get more downloads and make more money than 99 cent games or 1.99 games which maybe cheaper upfront.  People are more likely to try something that isn't expensive.

The model of HD doesn't allow for it to be a "freemium" game(I mean it could, but could you imagine paying 99 cents for a 5 point 1 game rating boosts, I'd kill whoever started that as well as the majority of people I'd expect to leave pretty soon)

But I think it does turn people off even if it averages out to the price of going to the bar once a month.  I'm not here clamoring to make the game cheaper of free or anything.

I was thinking about this last night...I've come to the conclusion that Fox really doesn't care about WIS, as long as it isn't hemorrhaging money.

If Fox really wanted to goose WIS's numbers, it would cross-promote the crap out of it. During the World Series, the pregame show would refer to the WIS predictions, Joe Buck would drop in, "If you want to see how these Royals would fare against George Brett and the 1985 team, go to whatifsports.com today. Whatifsports.com, where you can be the manager." 

It would be dropped into to FS1 broadcasts -- have the college football predictions mentioned in the pregame show.  If Fox wanted to grow WIS, it has enough publicity channels to make it happen. Yet they don't.  

It's 2015 and WIS just now got around to making Hardball Dynasty into a tablet/phone friendly game. If FOX was really committed to WIS, we would have had an app 5 years ago (I actually took a several year hiatus from WIS and was shocked there was no app made in the interim).  Like most people, I discovered WIS from Bill Simmons, so I am not sure how much of an advertising push was ever made.

My guess is that WIS brings in enough revenue that it isn't a drain and they don't think it has enough growth potential to justify an investment of time/resources/advertising.  Lets face it -- there will be no advertising and no influx coming. 

well you have to consider right now is basically the perfect time to advertise no NCAA Football or Baskbeball video games.  A little difference as there's no actual game play, but there is plenty of people who played those games for the dynasty building.

Making a free app to join/create account would increase visibility a lot.  An app is 100x better than a mobile web page no matter how good a mobile web version is.

Posted by the0nlyis on 10/28/2015 4:35:00 PM (view original):
well you have to consider right now is basically the perfect time to advertise no NCAA Football or Baskbeball video games.  A little difference as there's no actual game play, but there is plenty of people who played those games for the dynasty building.

Making a free app to join/create account would increase visibility a lot.  An app is 100x better than a mobile web page no matter how good a mobile web version is.

Honest question that I do not know the answer to: when is the last time WIS did an advertising campaign for any of its games? (and no, cross posting predictions at foxsports.com doesn't count)

Posted by grimacedance on 10/28/2015 4:19:00 PM (view original):
I was thinking about this last night...I've come to the conclusion that Fox really doesn't care about WIS, as long as it isn't hemorrhaging money.

If Fox really wanted to goose WIS's numbers, it would cross-promote the crap out of it. During the World Series, the pregame show would refer to the WIS predictions, Joe Buck would drop in, "If you want to see how these Royals would fare against George Brett and the 1985 team, go to whatifsports.com today. Whatifsports.com, where you can be the manager." 

It would be dropped into to FS1 broadcasts -- have the college football predictions mentioned in the pregame show.  If Fox wanted to grow WIS, it has enough publicity channels to make it happen. Yet they don't.  

It's 2015 and WIS just now got around to making Hardball Dynasty into a tablet/phone friendly game. If FOX was really committed to WIS, we would have had an app 5 years ago (I actually took a several year hiatus from WIS and was shocked there was no app made in the interim).  Like most people, I discovered WIS from Bill Simmons, so I am not sure how much of an advertising push was ever made.

My guess is that WIS brings in enough revenue that it isn't a drain and they don't think it has enough growth potential to justify an investment of time/resources/advertising.  Lets face it -- there will be no advertising and no influx coming. 

I get your point but what you aren't considering is even to have Joe Buck or the announcers in a college football pregame show advertise in this way is not free to What if Sports.  Departmentally, What if Sports would still have to pay for that.  If it wasn't specifically written into his contract, and it's doubtful that it is, Joe Buck would probably be entitled to a "speaking fee" if Fox were to come to him and ask him to advertise the product during the World Series, and advertising rates would still be due to the division of Fox that handles broadcast advertising and that wouldn't be cheap during the World Series.  

I get that it's silly ... one would think Fox would want to promote the game on behalf of a subsidiary if they saw growth opportunities and potential revenue, but departments at large corporations still have budgets on which they operate and there is probably a lot of red tape.  What is Sports is nothing more than a small business operating within the corporate structure of a very large media company, it doesn't mean they are given anything for free within the operations.

I get that it really seems like it should be simple for What if Sports to take advantage of it's relationship with Fox, but this is probably far more complex than most people realize.