We're just four days into conference play now and the USA South has had no shortage of wild finishes or stunning upsets. Five of the conference's 12 teams are currently ranked, including the #1 and #2 teams in the country, Averett and Oglethorpe respectively. Despite having three sim teams in the conference this season, the USAS still ranks first in conference RPI by a wide margin--.6204 with the next closest being the S. Cal at .5705. Six of the top 15 team RPIs in the country belong to the conference and according to the projection report, seven teams are highly expected to make the national tournament, with another likely bid and one likely PIT team. But which teams are in the best shape to make a long-NT run and which are playing over their heads so far? Read on to find out. 

EAST

1. #1 Averett Cougars (12-1 Overall, 2-1 USAS)
Predicted Record: 14-2
Scheme: Motion/Press

This is Averett's most complete team since the championship season now three years removed. They have a duo of high-volume scoring senior guards, although both get the job done different ways; Robert Bonanno is exceptional at maneuvering the lane to get easy points in the paint, while Thomas Ayon is more of a sharpshooter, though he can still put the ball down and get to the rack if need be. 

The team's biggest weakness was exploited in a game against Piedmont, wherein foul trouble for nearly all of the team's guards strung out the rotation paper thin and revealed that only two players are capable of running the point. The team also has to be disappointed in the production of junior guard Lee Tritt, who many saw as a breakout candidate heading into the season. 

Offensively, the Cougars are playing a new brand of basketball, relying more heavily on outside shooting, but their true identity remains the same on defense, where they are creating havoc to the tune of 22.5 turnovers forced per game. If their guards can stay out of foul trouble in the National Tournament, they can make a deep run as few teams can rival their overall talent that runs 11-deep. 

2. Christopher Newport Captains (10-3, 3-0)
Predicted Record: 10-6
Scheme: Triangle/Press

Following consecutive trips to the second round of the National Tournament, the Captains are once again fielding a strong team behind the leadership of senior forward Travis Opitz, who has increased his scoring output to 20.0 PPG (on 53.6% shooting) from 13.8 the previous season. 

CNU gets a good balance of scoring from its guards and bigs, but could really use a better shooting threat on the perimeter. Stud junior guard Paul Orr has a solid shot, but has limited range and is much more keen on driving to the rack and drawing fouls, while freshman guard Michael Anderson is second on the team with 21 three-point attempts (21), but is a defensive liability. 

Defensively, the CNU's fullcourt press has been effective at creating turnovers with opponents giving it up 21.4 times per game thus far into the season, good for fifth in the conference. However, their 33.8% three-point shooting against is second from last in the league, likely the result of guards that are a bit slow for the press system. 

However, this team remains a threat on the national stage because they've added depth in the offseason and their best players are very well conditioned--Opitz is playing 28.4 minutes per game so far, quite the achievement on a press team. They tend to get their opponents into foul trouble and their high-pressure defense combined with solid rebounding regularly gives them a possession advantage. 

3. Methodist Monarchs (9-4, 0-3)
Predicted Record: 9-7
Scheme: Motion/Press

Following a down season, Methodist looked strong early, peaking at a ranking of #10 nationally, but they've since dropped four straight and it has mainly come down to sloppy offensive play--their 18.8 turnovers per game is second worst in the conference--and lack of outside shooting--only one player on the team has taken more than five attempts from beyond the arc. 

You'd think that Methodist would be a high percentage scoring team given the high portion of their points that come in the paint, but their 45.5% shooting from the field ranks just eighth in the conference and is just a half percentage point above the 11th place team. Clearly, teams are packing in the defense, with sophomore guard Joseph Plummer the only real shooting threat. 

Defensively, the Monarchs are solid once again and you'd be hard-pressed to find better-schooled players in terms of defensive fundamentals, but their guards lack the speed to make the most of the press defense, and this is hurting them against teams with great guards, of which there are many in this conference. Endurance is also showing itself to be an issue against press or fastbreak teams. 

Nonetheless, the Monarchs have a roster that generally fits together well and they get a good balance of scoring from their starters and bench. They're certainly a tournament-caliber team, but their ability to make a deep run is hampered by their lack of conditioning and consistent shooting. 

4. Greensboro Pride (11-2, 3-0)
Predicted Record: 8-8
Scheme: Motion/Man

One of just three remaining teams to be undefeated in conference play, the Pride have made great strides from a season ago. They are one of few non-pressing teams in the conference, but their man-scheme combined with solid depth and conditioning will keep most games close, even against the conference's high-powered high-tempo styled teams that rely on getting their opponents exhausted and into foul trouble. 

Senior guard Clifton Bowerman is the doing it all for Greensboro offensively, putting up a team-leading 17.0 points and 3.8 assists per game. His shooting range is keeping defenses honest (44.9% on three-pointers) while capable post-scorers like Ralph Sims and Calvin Ratliff are taking advantage of the attention that he attracts. 

Greensboro is also the most dominant rebounding team in the conference, with a margin so large I can't include it on the page, but their lack of a true small forward may cause problems defensively against three-guard lineups. Regardless, the Pride should squeeze into the National Tournament where, if given the right matchups, a potential run to the Sweet 16 wouldn't be a total shock. 

5. Chowan Hawks (7-7, 1-3)
Predicted Record: 1-15
Scheme: Motion/Man

6. Ferrum Panthers (5-9, 0-4)
Predicted Record: 1-15
Scheme: Fastbreak/Zone


WEST 

1. #2 Oglethorpe Petrels (13-1, 3-1)
Predicted Record: 14-2
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

Coming off of a disappointing postseason performance, coach grantduck has his Petrels hungry and they aren't holding any punches, boasting the widest average margin of victory in the conference--28.6 with the next closest being 20.9. 

Behind a talented group of seniors, Oglethorpe has as much talent and experience as any team in the country, and with a 12-deep rotation that has the stamina necessary to run the fastbreak/press combo, they have the potential to beat any team on a given night. 

With a strong balance of inside and outside scoring, sure-handed guards, and a frontcourt that hits the offensive glass hard, the Petrels have an offensive recipe that just works and, as usual, they are among the most athletic and fundamentally sound defensive teams around. 

Their reliance on free throws does make their offensive production a bit volatile, as we saw in their only loss of the season against La Grange (10 of 23 on FTs), but its hard to find any other chlnks in this team's armor. 

2. #16 Palm Beach Atlantic Sailfish (10-4, 4-0)
Predicted Record: 13-3
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

Coach Rails always has interesting teams to dissect and with Final Four trips in four out of the past five seasons, they're usually effective too. This season is no exception and the Sailfish already have some of the most impressive wins of any team in the conference. 

Few teams can keep up with their fervent style of play and they're liable to foul out your entire starting lineup on any given night. Defensively, they force teams out of their comfort zone as well, creating a league-leading 25.7 turnovers and allowing just 25.9% shooting from beyond the arc, the second best mark in the conference. 

There are a few clear weaknesses for Palm Beach Atlantic, however. Namely, they lack rim-protectors and the elite speed you're looking for in fastbreak/press guards. They compensate somewhat with inordinately fast bigs, but they could find teams with premier speed at the guard position, like the USA South's own Averett, to be a bad matchup. 

3. #18 Piedmont Lions (11-3, 2-2)
Predicted Record: 10-6
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

The makeup of Piedmont's roster is far from traditional, but they have perhaps they most impressive win in DIII basketball with their 83-69 drumming on the road against #1 Averett. Their blueprint so far has been to get their opponents in foul trouble and create transition opportunities and despite lacking team speed, they are doing both incredibly well and are playing stout defense, leading the conference in both two-point and three-point shooting against. 

The Lions shoot very few three-pointers and instead utilize good ball handling to get into the lane and draw fouls or create offensive rebounding opportunities. Their guards all have strong ability to finish at the rim while a deep frontcourt rotation allows them to stay fresh in spite of their rampant offensive pace. 

From a glance, it seems that Piedmont is overperforming because they don't fit any of the molds that you usually see contending for a championship at DIII, but it's clear that they can beat any team in the country so any less than a Sweet 16 trip will likely be a disappointment for coach bistiza, now in his fourth season at Piedmont and his first with a roster of exclusively players he recruited. 

4. #17 La Grange Panthers (12-2, 2-2)
Predicted Record: 9-7
Scheme: Flex/Zone

La Grange is another team with a duo of elite scorers, but with one being a guard and the other a power forward. Zieglen is the team's primary shooting threat, but fellow senior guard Sean Geil is also a capable scorer (11.9 PPG) and adept distributor--his 5.0 assists per game ranks third in the conference. 

The main concern for La Grange should be how they will battle on the boards if any of their bigs (of which they only have three) get into foul trouble. They have held their own so far by getting some help from Zieglen, an above-average rebounder from the guard position, but it's tough to imagine them making a deep run in the National Tournament due to the shallow nature of their big rotation. 

Despite the concerns, La Grange defeated what is perhaps the premier fastbreak/press team in the country last night in Oglethorpe's own house, so perhaps coach dacamel14 will still have some tricks up his sleeve come tourney time. 

5. Shenandoah Hornets (7-7, 1-3)
Predicted Record: 6-10
Scheme: Motion/Press

Following two down seasons, Shenandoah is looking to get back on track this season, but unfortunately they find themselves a part of the toughest division in the country. 

Despite talent that rivals most of their conference foes, the Hornets have been struggling due to lack of ball movement and inefficient scoring. Perhaps the solution is giving players more isolation opportunities, but it's clear that their offensive strategy is going to have to change if they have any hopes of making the National Tournament, which is something this roster is capable of. 

The team has to be disappointed with the performance of Phil McCaffity, who they were undoubtedly hoping would be one of their primary scoring threats. Instead, he's shooting just 31.7% on three-pointers and has fallen into the crowd of seven players on the team average between seven and eight points. 

6. N. Carolina Wesleyan Battling Bishops (1-9) 
Predicted Record: 2-14
Scheme: Fastbreak/Zone