Here are four options.....who to draft and why? I have an idea how I want to go but I am interested in how others view this. And my high school scouting is at 16.

1. 18 yr old SS.....96 overall, fielding 84,81,79, 92, dur 86, health100, spd 65, patience 44, temper 89, makeup 65
               hitting: contact 85, power 90, L 90, R 73, eye 90, baserunning 92

2. 18 yr old OF.....95 overall, fielding 76, 53, 74, 60, dur 87, health 74, spd 95, patience 71, temper 68, makeup 97
               hitting: contact 87, power 100, L 72, R 72, eye 100, baserunning 94

3. 18 yr old Pitcher....89 overall, dur 38, health 78, makeup 67, stamina 73, control 89, L 80, R 83, vel 90, grd/fly 92, pitches 92, 86, 42

4. 18 yr old Pitcher...85 overall,, dur 35, health 100, makeup 97, stamina 87, control 95, L 68, R 78, vel 26, grd/fly 88, pitches 82, 87, 39, 48, 54

Thanks for thoughts!

Well, I'll play.  First of all I'm guessing those projections all look a little high.  Those project to be four great players, and I haven't been part of a draft with four great players at the very top.

So with a little skepticism for the projections, and depending on your team's needs, I would take the OF simply because he looks to have the truest run producing bat.  I think if you have a chance to get a great hitter under contract long term, it trumps everything else.

I agree with damag. You could be in a bit of trouble, I don't think those projections are going to be accurate. 

Just on experience alone, the OF is probably your best bet. If these players were to all reach these projections I would take the SS in a heartbeat, but with those guys coming along once in a lifetime, I don't think he will hit those projections. 

This is a lottery; with $16M the odds are that your projections are seriously high on 2 or 3 of those, and slightly high on the other(s).  

I suppose I've never seen a SS that good, so maybe you can infer that the SS is one of the really bad projections.  But #3 is, in my opinion, on a par with the top SP in most worlds; believable but a Cy Young contender many or most seasons.  I'd take him, and also #4 who is just a tiny cut lower, over the OF.  

Low makeup on an 18yo makes me super nervous.  The SS has borderline defensive ratings as is.  Same worry I have about #3.

I really like the floor on the OF.  I know he's going to be an All Star.  I would probably go 2,3,1,4.  But I'm pretty risk averse at the top of the draft.  If I already had a solid LF prospect I could see going #3.

Here is my biggest concern with taking pitchers so high with anything other then $20 mill scouting, pitcher 4 probably does not have 35 durability. Pitcher 3 for sure does not have 38 durability. If you draft one of these guys and their durability ends up being 15- below 20 you've gone from SP to LR or 2 inning closer. If you are ok with that, take the pitcher.

Worst case scenario for OF or SS is durability is 50-60 max and you can only give him 400-450 at bats. He'd still be a powerhouse PH on the games he starts on the bench.

The new fuzzy projections seriously has me only considering position players with high picks because of this.

Actually I screwed up....I am at 19M for HS scouting. Thanks for the input. Interesting to see how others think. My concerns are for the SS, one, he is borderline fielding as it is so he will probably be another position. Also his makeup could be low. The OF concern is health at 74, if it is lower he is not a day in, day out starter. Also, might not have much flexibility with position. The first pitcher has a lower makeup, and with stamina at 73, if that ends up being much lower and durability is lower, then SP could be a concern. Otherwise I like him better than the last pitcher, where the concern could be lower splits and possibly pitches in the 70's. Would be nice to have a clear cut choice!

The two position players are extremely rare, from what I've seen, if they come close to their projections.  The pitchers, while very good, are pretty typical for what you usually see at the top of a draft.  I'd probably take the SS (probably will end up being better suited for 3B - he'd still be the best 3B in a lot of my worlds).  But the OF would be a very close #2.  

I have an upcoming Amateur draft in one league. Is it safe to assume that if my HS scouting is 6 and my College Scouting is 20, I should ignore the 97 overall HS pitcher in favor of a 83 or 85 overall College player, right?

Correct.

drgck ended up taking the SS, and his currents appear to me as though he's going to end up with all the hitting projections 5-10 points higher than where he'll end up. Still a nice player. My guess is that the OF is going to fall way short on BR but only a few points off on splits and contact, and might even hit the very high power and eye projections. I'm guessing this guy is pitcher #4, and if so he was wildly overprojected. And if this guy is pitcher #3 he's likely to fall about 10 points shy on control and splits. drgck-- am I right about these players?

Not sure what we learned here except to take the guy who looks most like he's still a player if you've overprojected him by 10 points.

cool, thanks for the update dedelman

I would have taken the OF based on initial ratings. I would not have been overly worried about the 74 HE.