If a d3 and a d2 school both have similar efforts into a kid (20 HV, CV, promises) and both are similar with regard to preferences, and both have similar prestige..... how big is the d2 advantage?
insurmountable?
Long shot?
only slight advantage?

or something in between?

Your question is a little unclear. With everything else being equal, the D2 team will win 100% of the time

I think the D2 will at least be favored 100% of the time. My understanding is that even a D- D2 school has a prestige advantage over an A+ D3 school, so it would have to be a lower level D2 school for the D3 school to have a shot. If it's A or A+ D2 vs A+ D3, then the D3 is pretty much dead. It's also pretty difficult for a D3 school to get to 20 HV with the lower budget. That said, it is much easier for a human coached D3 school to compete with a sim coached D2 than a human coached D2

ok i didnt realize it was that large of an advantage.

all things are equal and both are A+ prestige, but one school is d2 and one is d3

obivously the d2 will be favored 100% of the time... but would they really win 100% of the time? i feel like ive been in some really uneven battles where i was a huge favorite and lost before,,,, plenty of times,

a d3 school CAN get to 20 HVs but agree it would be unusual.

Yes 100% of the time. The D3 team would be below VH/H so they wouldn't be in signing range giving them a 0% chance of signing.

Now, I would like to see if the D2 had all very bad prefs and the D3 had all very good. Then I dunno. Still doubtful but dunno.