Be realistic about your projections. Player 1 will hit those projections without starting him at all in the next two years, and will likely start his jr season pretty close. Player 2 will need starts and we boosts to get there, and it will take longer. You will also need to sacrifice other attributes in order to maximize per and FT. With 30 WE, you can’t have it all.
Player 2 does have a defensive advantage, and though player 1 will hold his own just fine, it’s not insignificant. Player 1 has a bigger offensive advantage though, IMO. Triangle emphasizes shooting (and passing, IMO) over ball handling and playmaking. The difference between 85 and 78 ath for non-LP shooting guards in triangle is negligible. Likewise, triangle isn’t going to feature player 2’s elite BH. On the other hand, if we can assume the per rating of both players is green, player 1 is currently sitting at 53, with a 64 WE. Player 2 is currently sitting at 45 with a 30 WE. With reasonable minutes investment, say 10-12 minutes per practice, player 1 is guaranteed to be an upper 70s outside threat by the end of his sophomore season. Player 2 will still probably be in the low 60s, unless you get him starts to boost WE, AND he happens to be high VH, which you have no way of knowing now. And his weak passing for a triangle guard will hurt, especially if you’re starting him to boost WE.
Player 2 will be a fine defensive guard, with scoring potential you might be able to use by his senior year. Player 1 will develop faster, and will be a more sure bet offensively. He’ll also be an adequate defender, though not as good as player 2. It’s not a slam dunk. To me, it depends on your priorities, your team, and whether you need the outside scoring sooner than 3 years from now.
1/2/2018 9:30 AM (edited)