$65M Decade Shuffle
Salmon Fishing in the Camden
The last league I played with a low cap was in the WISC last year, and my 70M team was my lowest finisher of the six. So I had zero comfort zone. It wasn’t the decade challenge that worried me so much as the uncertainty of the key to a successful team at this cap. My closest experience came from limited draft pools and leagues like the historical progressives I’ve played, where you definitely are going to have some very bad players and significant weak spots. But those just kind of arrive out of necessity, not as part of a plan, and here you have to build a team with a planned set of weaknesses. And strengths, too.
So the lessons I had learned were that you could get away with a few good hitters and a few worthless ones. And some of the bench will be dead weight, or minimum salary throwaways. Plus, value is going to be relative to the talent pool, so you don’t need superstars so much as just some plus talent that can carry the team a little. So my goal was to fill 5 spots in the lineup solidly, be able to get 6-7 innings reliably from starters day in and day out, and have maybe 2-3 tougher relievers to call on.
Since the decade range did include deadballers, I figured I’d look for some sturdy SP with low HR rates to secure a bulk of innings for me. I tried a lot of $/IP ranges and settings to figure out how much I could really afford to spend on these guys, and I ended up finding a few pitchers in both the 00s and 40s who fit well. That meant I couldn’t use the 10s, 30s or 50s. The 20s would be on the table if I wanted those hitters.
With deadball starters in 1903 Roy Patterson (347 IP) and 1907 Lew Moren (282), I knew that I could get extra pitches out of them because of low K/BB totals and get deep into games reliably. 1947 Red Barrett (222) slots in behind them, and I have a handful of other pitchers capable of filling whatever starts remain as they slide in and out of bullpen roles. Top 3 starters get ~850 innings for just under $20M. I used four pitchers each from the 00s and 40s, and once the lineup started taking shape I found more good options among the 60s and 80s than the other decades.
I hadn’t figured out how best to use the 25th player on the roster until it dawned on me to try to use it for a critical spot I couldn’t fill well in my other decades. I wound up with 1998 Tim Salmon with a .300/.411/.533 slash line for just over $4M that shapes up as an offensive centerpiece. 1988 Ellis Burks (.294/.367/.481) and 1965 Lee Thomas (.271/.361/.464) come in at less than $9M combined. I decided on platoons in LF, with 1980 Yaz (.275/.350/.462) and 1963 George Alusik (.267/.345/.439) for under $4M combined, and at 3B, with 1989 Dave Magadan (.286/.367/.393) and 1980 Eric Soderholm (.287/.353/.462) for just over another $4M. Sucking up space in the rest of the lineup are a catching platoon and middle infield for a total of under $10M for the four players.
What could go wrong? For starters, I don’t have much power or speed, so this fairly adequate set of hitters has to string rallies together to score. I’m counting on the mediocre pitching letting that happen often enough. With deadball pitching available, I couldn’t see building around power. And speed proved hard to afford without sacrificing elsewhere more than I wanted to.
Ballpark: I needed a park from 1998 and didn’t want anything too extreme. Camden Yards had a little under 1.0 park factor, to give the pitchers extra help. I figured my staff will keep HR down but will also allow a lot of balls in play, so Camden hurts the 2B and 3B at least. The +1 HR gives my weak lineup a little help anyway.
Starters: C Haywood Sullivan 1962/Sport McAllister 1903, 1B Lee Thomas 1965, 2B Don Blasingame 1960, SS Buddy Kerr 1948, 3B Dave Magadan 1989/Eric Soderholm 1980, LF Carl Yastrzemski 1980/George Alusik 1963, CF Ellis Burks 1988, RF Tim Salmon 1998. Rotation: Roy Patterson 1903, Lew Moren 1907, Red Barrett 1947. Bullpen Keys: 1982 Bob Stoddard, 1946 Woody Abernathy, 1909 Deacon Phillippe
5517 PA .265/.344/.396 221 2B, 34 3B, 114 HR, 68/37 SB/CS $32.2M
1457 IP .241 OAVG, 1.17 WHIP, 2.92 ERA 452K-401 BB 66 HR $32.8M
Outlook: We might struggle mightily to score, and the potential for miscalculation is so high here. This team could definitely struggle to be .500, and it strikes me as highly unlikely we’ll be much above it no matter what. Playoff confidence is just 33%, and I’ll guess 81 wins. Maybe the obscure movie reference in my team name is worth an extra couple wins?
90M Ball in Play
Dr. Strangeglove Cup
This was definitely a fun one to build because I had to throw out so much conventional wisdom about what I like in a team and just let it go. I think I ended up scrapping almost everyone I started out with as I retooled. Plus, I feared underdrafting quality innings and PA, and that meant planning for lots of ugly games. The theme puts a premium on hitters who put the ball in play and pitchers who minimize it, but I also expect lots of deadball hitters who won’t strike out no matter who’s pitching. At least you aren’t wasting any money on defense, though, right? That led me to target $40M on hitting and $50M on pitching. You get more value for hitters who can’t field anyway and who cares if bad defenders get a little fatigued because they are already awful?
I did want defenders at the high end of the scale at least, so I favored better normalized FLD% to minimize the carnage. I ended up with some platoons to improve matchups and no one over $5M on the hitting side. Spent about $42M for hitters after feeling I had settled too cheaply at a couple spots. I really wanted to get Dick Stuart on this team because it would have been so fitting, but I settled for referencing his nickname in the team name instead.
I wanted some 100+ inning guys in the pen, a couple to be innings eaters and a couple to be useful setups (44 Munger and 43 Brecheen have done well for me before, so I worked them in). Ideally I wanted a rotation of similar IP totals who could stay on schedule without needing many spot starts, and then a couple of really good late-inning guys to nail down the close ones (Andrew Miller and Joakim Soria filled the bill). You can’t afford dominance at this cap, so I went for above-average competence with reasonable K/9 and OAVG. No one over $7.5M.
Ballpark: Coors, of course.
Starters: C Ernie Lombardi 1932/Glenn Myatt 1923, 1B Paul Molitor 1996, 2B Larry Doyle 1915, SS Charlie Irwin 1894, 3B John McGraw 1897, LF Chipper Jones 2003, CF Lance Berkman 2000/Rube Bressler 1921, RF Wally Post 1961/Sammy Strang 1906. Rotation: Dwight Gooden 1986, Don Sutton 1982, Jim Scott 1910, Burt Hooton 1975. Bullpen Keys: Andrew Miller 2015, Joakim Soria 2008, Red Munger 1944, Harry Brecheen 1943
6183 PA .307/.385/.453 294 2B, 67 3B, 119 HR, 183/154 SB/CS $42.2M
1677 IP .219 OAVG, 1.11 WHIP, 2.61 ERA 1113 K-529 BB 86 HR $47.8M
Outlook: How good will our record be in games in which both teams score double digits? I think that’s a better marker than 1-run games for a league like this. A lot could go wrong in my planning, especially if I get into fatigue trouble early and just can’t disperse the innings. Even if I planned well there, there is enough uncertainty to give me no more than 50% confidence in making the playoffs. Let’s call it 85 wins (+/- 3).
100M Clone Teammates
K is for Kershaw
I knew I’d need to build a few rosters to compare their strengths and weaknesses and test out a few possibilities. I ended up with full rosters for Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Joe Horlen, Rickey Henderson, and Clayton Kershaw. The Horlen pitching staff was very nice, but I couldn’t manage enough hitting to feel good about it. Nothing really wrong with the Clemens or Smoltz rosters, but I narrowed it to Rickey and Clayton eventually. I actually entered the Rickey team, with a fine top 3 starters in 80 Norris-02 Pedro-02 Lowe and thought I was set, but I kept feeling the pull of the Kershaws especially once I started setting the lineups and realized none of my pitchers could hit at all.
I’ve gotten great results from the 15 Greinke-15 Kershaw combo, and adding 13 and 17 Kershaws was a tempting rotation. The 17 looks like a great value to me in fact. 09 Kershaw is the 5th starter and swingman, for a $40M+ rotation. In Dodger Stadium, we ought to have one of the top staffs in the league. And unlike the staff on the Rickey roster, they can swing the bat pretty well too.
I ended up using 10 players from the 2017 Dodgers, which is the part that worries me the most. There’s lots of power, a bit of speed, lots of versatility, and strong defense. My home team bias might have led me into a bad decision ultimately, but I feel very good about the pitching and defense and think the lineup will produce enough.
Ballpark: Only choice was Dodger Stadium. If it worked for these guys in RL, let’s hope it does the same here.
Starters: C Yasmani Grandal 17, 1B Cody Bellinger 17, 2B Howie Kendrick 15, SS Corey Seager 17, 3B Justin Turner 17, LF Chris Taylor 17, CF Matt Kemp 09, RF Andre Ethier 09. Rotation: Kershaw 15-17-13-09, Zack Greinke 15. Bullpen Keys: Kenley Jansen 17, Brandon Morrow 17, Paco Rodriguez 13
5608 PA .284/.356/.485 292 2B, 28 3B, 218 HR, 100/31 SB/CS (stats for non-P) $43.3M
1412 IP .201 OAVG, 0.98 WHIP, 2.33 ERA 1504 K-356 BB 103 HR $56.6M
Outlook: I feel like I got a lot of offense for $43M, with 7 starters at 20+ homers, and virtually everyone fields well too. The starting rotation will determine our success, though, and if they perform to expectations this team feels like a 90+-win squad to me. I give it an 80% shot at playoffs, and the rotation lines up very well in a playoff series too.
$110M Unique Season Twist
Not Much Happened in 1915
It wasn’t as hard to settle on a year as I thought it would be. With all eras open, I decided that deadball was the smartest choice for getting pitchers who kill the long ball and can feature some workhorses atop the rotation. I knew finding great relief seasons would be the hardest part of the era, as there are few lower-inning great seasons to pick from. So I sorted for the best of them, then checked what seasons a few of them shared as a possible base year. 1915 worked out pretty quickly as a strong option, so I set out to find the rest of a team with that parameter. I liked that it gave me access to some 1920s years with some stronger hitting options as well as some of the great pitching dominators of the deadball days. It took a while to look through a lot of sorted lists to find guys who had 1915 seasons and were good fits, of course, particularly as you get to the outer edges of the range and the choices are very limited. Some of the scrubs came from those years. I never did build a second roster for this theme once I had it set. The fact that there are no fewer than five teams in my league with 1915 as base year (plus a 1914 and 1916) tells me my thinking was pretty sound here.
The rotation starts off looking a lot like the 130M squad, with 08 Walsh in there again but with 1917 Walter Johnson in this time for 7M less but still very solid. That’s well over 900 innings accounted for right there for $32M. The rest of the starter innings go to 1909 Babe Adams and 1926 Pete Alexander, with the other getting long relief when needed. That’s another 10M for 300 more innings. This should be a lower scoring league generally, and I’ve got 5 guys for the late innings with 46-62 innings each to spread out the work a bit.
We won’t hit many homers, and because of the era they’re all contact hitters basically anyway. A lot like the 130M team in philosophy here, but with more limited choices. Went for batting average, doubles and triples, with hopefully some speed. Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Jack Fournier, Bill Bradley and Birdie Cree will be the main weapons. I worked through a handful of permutations before settling on this group. Defense is not going to be a strength, alas, with only SS Dave Bancroft and CF Zack Wheat offering much in plus range, and some low fielding percentages. Nature of the era, though.
Ballpark: Wasn’t too hard to find a park from the era that fit my roster well. League Park is -2 for HR, which is just icing since my pitchers only allowed 15 in RL anyway. But modern teams will struggle a lot here. The +2 1B and +3 2B work well for my slap hitters. Could have maybe used more 3B boost, but we’ll get those anyway.
Starters: C Wally Schang 1921, 1B Jack Fournier 1925, 2B Eddie Collins 1923, SS Dave Bancroft 1920, 3B Bill Bradley 1902, LF Joe Jackson 1913, CF Zack Wheat 1914, RF Birdie Cree 1911. Rotation: Ed Walsh 1908, Walter Johnson 1917, Babe Adams 1909/Pete Alexander 1926. Bullpen: George McQuillan 1907, Carl Weilman 1912, Carmen Hill 1918, George Dumont 1916, Ray Caldwell 1919
5934 PA .333/.406/.479 288 2B, 121 3B, 74 HR, 197/178 SB/CS $56.2M
1444 IP .208 OAVG, 0.94 WHIP, 1.91 ERA 732 K-275 BB 15 HR $53.7M
Outlook: I think the deadball teams are going to fare quite well in this league, and about half my league went that route. Let’s see how the divisions break down, but barring a major misbalance I expect this team to be highly competitive. I’ll go with 85% playoff confidence and 90 wins projected.
130M Everybody Plays
Play Today, Sit Tomorrow
I started with pitching as usual, and at this cap you can get a lot of great seasons in there. With no restricted years, I looked for deadball starters and a handful of relief aces. No cheap mopup possible, so I just filled every spot with a useful arm. Started the rotation with two bulldogs in 08 Ed Walsh and 12 Walter Johnson. That’s 1000 quality innings right there for $40M. And 43 Whit Wyatt gets the SP3 spot for as often as it’s needed and long relief if needed.
I got 5 excellent setup relievers to spread out the innings, all between 2-4M with 50-70 innings, plus the partial 87 Doyle Alexander as a long guy, and even found room to grab the 70 Vida Blue just for the heck of it. Who knows, I might even be in a situation to use him as a secret weapon at some point. I spent $67.3M on pitching, and I think they can even survive Fenway’s extra pressures.
For my offense, I had to assume a lot of deadball pitchers so I didn’t look for HR hitters. Focus was on guys with good gloves, high batting averages, plenty of doubles, and good speed. We’re going to have to manufacture some of these runs after all. I knew I’d be platooning some because of the $2M factor and that led to some guys in lower PA ranges who bring a lot of value to the lineup.
I’ll have a multi-headed DH spotlighted by two ex-pitchers who had monster seasons around 250 PA, 22 Reb Russell and 21 Joe Wood. Russell has been killing it for me in thejuice tournament year after year, but of course you can only play him like 2 out of every 5 games. Only 3 players with over 600 PA, but all 15 have over 200. Should be a good managing challenge, but I like the pieces I’ve got.
Ballpark: With a doubles-heavy lineup and a lot of strong batting averages, Fenway’s +4 2B and +2 1B seemed to play to my advantage. Not worried about restricting homers, since my entire staff gave up just 20 in 1485 RL innings.
Starters: C Bubbles Hargrave 1926/Sy Sutcliffe 1891, 1B Joey Votto 2012, 2B Eddie Collins 1923, SS Jimmy Rollins 2008, 3B Justin Turner 2017, LF Chick Hafey 1930, CF Mike Griffin 1894, RF Lance Berkman 2004, DH Reb Russell 1922/Joe Wood 1921. Rotation: Ed Walsh 1908, Walter Johnson 1912, Whit Wyatt 1943. Bullpen: Rob Murphy 1986, Kenley Jansen 2016, Cla Meredith 2006, Johnny Niggeling 1943, Barry Latman 1958, Vida Blue 1970, Doyle Alexander 1987
6280 PA .334/.422/.521 376 2B, 75 3B, 156 HR, 221/112 SB/CS $62.7M
1485 IP .192 OAVG, 0.89 WHIP, 1.51 ERA 1005 K-299 BB 20 HR $67.3M
Outlook: Like many of these teams, I spent more on pitching again. I really like this staff a lot, and it feels potentially very dominant. Did I spend enough on offense to get us over the top, though? I’m an active manager and feel I can keep these moving parts working well. I’m going with 75% confidence in making the playoffs. Upper-80s feels right for a win total.
$255M Wait & See
Making the Forbes List
I think the first question is: Do I have a prayer of making Round 2? If no, then you really could ignore the Round 2 limitation and figure if you made it anyway you would just suffer the consequences. But … I had to plan for both and think through what kind of team would be competitive in each scenario. I built both rosters at the same time, moving pieces around so they both remained workable as I went.
My starting point was with pitching as usual. The target was to sort through to the best seasons of all-time and find pitchers who also had good seasons at about half the salary. With all the best choices out there it isn’t hard to assemble a comically awesome staff.
I happily overspent on 95 Greg Maddux and 00 Pedro Martinez, because both also have fine seasons in the $8-9M range for the 110M staff. I knew I’d go a little heavier on innings with this theme just be safe (not sure exactly what gives the most when the best hitters meet the best pitchers every single PA). I went with the now-very-familiar Ed Walsh (1910 this time) and Walter Johnson (1913 on this one, my 3rd WJ season in 5 teams now). That rang up a tidy $81M-plus for the rotation, which isn’t even a third of the budget. Not even sweating on money at this point.
For the bullpen, it was the same strategy, and once again it’s a who’s-who of the most ridiculous seasons in the sim. The 90 Eckersley (can use at SP or RP at 110M, which is nice flexibility), 13 Uehara, 10 Kuo, 09 Adams and 12 Kimbrel with their microscopic ERAs and WHIPs pack the pen. Those guys mostly have excellent seasons at half the salary, too. You wonder how anyone will score on them, but then you remember the offense you built and start wondering what’s gonna give.
Fitting the offense together was definitely harder, working back and forth between the two rosters and looking for some of the all-time amazing seasons who might be able to serve as a scrub on the other roster. Getting the right amount of PA and building benches definitely took some reworking time and again, particularly the last 3-4 spots that really proved stubborn. But I did wind up with a ridiculously productive bench for the limited PH opportunities they’ll get. Because of some uncertainty about how this theme will play out, I went higher than I probably needed to on PA and IP.
I grabbed C King Kelly ‘86, SS Lou Boudreau ‘48 and 2B Joe Morgan ‘75 right off. I wanted to use Babe Ruth, because why wouldn’t you? But so many amazing OF, and defense to worry about as well, so I ended up deciding to make ‘20 Ruth my 1B. ‘11 Cobb, ‘94 Duffy, and ‘57 Mantle eventually won the outfield sweepstakes, but ‘81 Mike Schmidt was a less-than-desirable 3B pick for me just because he might be too power-reliant. He just worked out as the best combination with what I had on both teams. I also worry about Morgan, who underperforms for me sometimes. But as a No. 8 hitter, I can live with it considering what he brings in glove and speed.
Ballpark: This was a tough decision, because it affects both rounds, and I really didn’t know if my pitchers or hitters would need the help more in either round. So I played it safe and chose a near-neutral park in Forbes Field. It’s +1 for 1B and 0s for the rest. I’m sure I could have used this more to my advantage somehow, especially with a + doubles park, but I played it safe.
Starters: C King Kelly 1886, 1B Babe Ruth 1920, 2B Joe Morgan 1975, SS Lou Boudreau 1948, 3B Mike Schmidt 1981, LF Mickey Mantle 1957, CF Ty Cobb 1911, RF Hugh Duffy 1894. Rotation: Greg Maddux 1995, Pedro Martinez 2000, Ed Walsh 1910, Walter Johnson 1913. Bullpen: Dennis Eckersley 1990, Koji Uehara 2013, Craig Kimbrel 2012, Hong-Chih Kuo 2010, Mike Adams 2009, Rich Hill 2015, Art Nehf 1919
6345 PA .372/.474/.613 359 2B, 98 3B, 236 HR, 344/194 SB/CS $136.1M
1665 IP .176 OAVG, 0.77 WHIP, 1.31 ERA 1489 K-243 BB 56 HR $118.8M
(how ridiculous are these numbers???)
Outlook: Here’s where the confidence starts to falter. I’m sure I have some flaws in my building logic despite the cap, so it’s hard to guess what’s to come. Once I see the other rosters, I might have a better idea, but for the moment I’m going with 50% playoff confidence and a projected 86 wins. A little better than average seems reasonably optimistic.