From one of Contrarian23's pinned threads...
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=452075
Part 5: How Sparky Chooses a Reliever
This section assumes that at least 1 pitcher meets the “availability” criteria spelled out above. Part 6 looks at what happens if no pitcher meets those criteria.
Sparky appears to take into account 4 factors:
· What inning is it?
· If mid-inning, what is the out/baserunner situation?
· What is the score differential (tied, ahead by 1…X runs, behind by 1….X runs)? (At some point, games get classified as “blowouts,” and the exact combination of inning and score differential for which this designation kicks in appears to be park-dependent).
· If ahead, is it a save situation?
The combination of those 4 variables leads to a prioritized list of relievers (or rather “relief roles”) that Sparky will then work his way down. If the first role on his list is not available, he moves to the second role, and so forth.
I do not believe any other variables come into play (e.g. salary cap, recent performance history by the pitcher, amount of usage for the pitcher, etc). There has been some discussion in the past that Sparky factors in other things, like whether a pitcher has been significantly underused compared to his real life IP, in selecting a relief pitcher. I have not seen convincing evidence that such things are included in the algorithm. Right now I am going with Occam’s razor and assuming that WIS’s programming is as parsimonious as possible.
To take an easy example, let’s look at the 9
th inning, ahead by 1 run. Classic save situation. I do not know exactly what the prioritized list looks like for this situation, but I believe it is as follows:
Closer A
Closer B
Set Up A
Set Up B
LH/RH Specialist
Long A
Long B
Starting Pitcher from the rotation
Mopup
I could be wrong about the exact ordering, especially toward the bottom of that list. But the point is that each unique game situation, based on the 4 variables outlined above, leads to a unique list like this one. Sparky will start at the top and move down until he finds a role that has an available pitcher assigned to it.
What happens if more than 1 available pitcher is assigned to a role (e.g. you have 2 SetUp A pitchers available)? It appears he considers platoon advantage (LHP to face LHB, etc.) and OAV (lowest OAV is used first).
In most cases, a SetUp A will be used before a SetUp B and a Long A will be used before a Long B. There are exceptions to this, but it is generally true.
WIS has never published the full exact algorithm in detail. To give an idea how the list may vary based on the game situation, Bribar posted in the original thread an exchange that he had with admin in which they listed the exact pitcher who would be chosen (read: at the top of Sparky’s list) in a number of different scenarios. That detail can be found on
page 3 of this thread.
10/2/2018 8:54 PM (edited)