Posted by brett3154 on 7/26/2019 12:58:00 PM (view original):
I've tinkered with that back and forth but then they stop shooting 2s and getting to the line. My try it with my off guard but hard to change at this point.
Shooting 2s and getting to the line is very rarely as efficient as shooting 3s in HD if you have a good shooter. The really relevant question is, to me, when do you get too one-dimensional and easy to defend with a + defense. In general, I like to shoot for 25-28% of my made baskets being 3s. I'd rather be higher than that range than lower. You're pretty comfortably below 25%, and given your team efficiency on 2- and 3-point shots - assuming every single free throw was on a two, i.e. no fouls on the floor and no fouls on 3s - would still be better shooting more 3s. Ignoring turnovers and making the above assumption - every FT on a 2 point attempt - you're getting 1.404 points per possession on 3s, and 1.223 points per possession on 2s.
Again, that's assuming that every single free throw attempt you've had this season was on an attempted 2, with the usual coefficient of .44 possession per FT (based on long-term average of percentage of FTs taken as and-1s). So who cares if they stop shooting 2s and getting to the line? Accumulating fouls has some value, certainly, but against teams that are deep - which most teams in the 2nd round or later of the tournament are - there's no way it's worth .18 points per possession.