Posted by gillispie1 on 9/6/2019 10:23:00 PM (view original):
i get that its unlikely to get them out of the first round, but isn't it basically impossible to get a junior to go under 'on the fence'? even guys at 100 are on the fence for me, and it kinda seems like even unlisted guys in that 100-110ish range are probably still 'on the fence' as juniors. might have misunderstood what you were saying there, i thought you were saying its unlikely to both get them out of the first round as well as unlikely to get them off the fence.
“
they weren’t going to move off the fence even if I could move them out of the first round (unlikely in both cases)”
Both cases meaning both players, as in neither player is likely to be moved out of the first round.
Juniors are all at least “on the fence”, as you say. So it would be moving the player down from “likely going” to “on the fence”. So the strategic calculus is different as sophomores, when keeping them out of the first round (well, out of the top 27-28 spots) has them “likely staying”. Had I completely stymied Brown, who started this season at 25 on the big board, he may have possibly moved down out of the first round on the big board. But he wasn’t going to go down far enough to give me good odds at returning for a senior year. So I made the choice to try to develop his scoring so that he’s a real offensive weapon by tournament time. He could end up a lottery pick, because his LP is still green, and could reach 90+.
9/6/2019 11:06 PM (edited)