Guess the odds/outcome

D1 pool player
Preferences: Near home, man defense, strong conference

Team A
D2
Prestige - B+
Preferences - VG (20 miles), neutral, neutral
Attention points - 405
Promises - none
Visits - 20 HV, CV

Team B
D3
Prestige - A+
Preferences - VG (7 miles), neutral, neutral
Attention points - 1278
Promises - Start + 25min
Visits - 17 HV, CV

im not very knowledgeable on this subject..
but my gosh i hope the answer is A

i would hope that any d2 that goes 20+1 would easily beat any d3 regardless of other factors... but have no idea if that is true.

I'm gonna say the D3 leads in the odds. I've always viewed a start to equal around 5 HV. So that would put the D3 "at a value of around 22 HV". (If that were possible). And the 900ish AP advantage is a boost.

52/48 D3 team leads

Posted by shoe3 on 11/4/2019 11:35:00 AM (view original):
Guess the odds/outcome

D1 pool player
Preferences: Near home, man defense, strong conference

Team A
D2
Prestige - B+
Preferences - VG (20 miles), neutral, neutral
Attention points - 405
Promises - none
Visits - 20 HV, CV

Team B
D3
Prestige - A+
Preferences - VG (7 miles), neutral, neutral
Attention points - 1278
Promises - Start + 25min
Visits - 17 HV, CV

im going to not read the rest of what was said to avoid baising my answer... also i have no idea how 3.0 recruiting works, that **** has mostly been infuriating to me.

i'm going to guess the d3 vs d2 prestige advantage is in line with how it was in 2.0 and you are looking at 10% per grade or maybe less. that would be a 30% advantage to A or less. the preferences i imagine is a wash, or more accurately, negligible.

roughly, i can't get a read on AP to anything because i came up with a scheme to establish all the values, got them all, and believe none of it is right. so, i'm going to loosely guess the 20 HV + CV + start + 25m suite is in the low 1Ks of APs even though when i add them up it should be in the low 2Ks but its fairly clear to me that is wrong. actually the only thing clear is i don't know anything but going to go ahead and throw out 1300 AP for the suite. so that would basically put team B at 2600 minus 3 HV which let's round at 100 because who cares, so 2500. team A is in the... i don't know, 1000 + 405 range, so about 1400 because why not?

so 1400 vs 2500, throw in 30% to A to make it 1820 vs 2500. if everything were straight %s then b would be 58% so for good measure round it up to 65% and i'm going with 65% for team B?

I would say somewhere between 56 and 58% odds in favor of the D3 team...

I think this one will shock many. 67-33 D3.

D3>48...D2>52 D3 wins

"i'm going to guess the d3 vs d2 prestige advantage is in line with how it was in 2.0 and you are looking at 10% per grade or maybe less. that would be a 30% advantage to A or less"

Remember there is another multiplier for division on top of the prestige difference.

Some good stuff so far. I’ll try to remember to update with the results tonight before I go to bed.

Posted by Benis on 11/4/2019 6:19:00 PM (view original):
"i'm going to guess the d3 vs d2 prestige advantage is in line with how it was in 2.0 and you are looking at 10% per grade or maybe less. that would be a 30% advantage to A or less"

Remember there is another multiplier for division on top of the prestige difference.

Based on what?

My understanding is that D- at D2 is still basically contiguous with A+ at D3. Same goes for the D2/D1 crossover, but individual grade jumps at D1 become substantially larger than in the lower divisions.

I think a lot of people have misconceptions about this. I battle D2 teams all the time, and frankly win a healthy proportion of those. If that's because the D2s are assuming they have a built-in multiplier advantage, I guess I shouldn't correct them. But an A+ D2 has something like a 25% advantage over my A+ D3, and the lower the prestige the smaller that gets.

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/4/2019 7:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 11/4/2019 6:19:00 PM (view original):
"i'm going to guess the d3 vs d2 prestige advantage is in line with how it was in 2.0 and you are looking at 10% per grade or maybe less. that would be a 30% advantage to A or less"

Remember there is another multiplier for division on top of the prestige difference.

Based on what?

My understanding is that D- at D2 is still basically contiguous with A+ at D3. Same goes for the D2/D1 crossover, but individual grade jumps at D1 become substantially larger than in the lower divisions.

I think a lot of people have misconceptions about this. I battle D2 teams all the time, and frankly win a healthy proportion of those. If that's because the D2s are assuming they have a built-in multiplier advantage, I guess I shouldn't correct them. But an A+ D2 has something like a 25% advantage over my A+ D3, and the lower the prestige the smaller that gets.

Based upon seble.

I agree, there are misconceptions. There's an additional divisional multiplier. I promise :)

they are already acknowledging 25 to 30%. that is what they are calling the divisional mutlipier.
i could understand if you say it is more than that, but i dont understand what you mean by "additional" multiplier

additional to what?

In addition to prestige.
All else being equal, a "B prestige" DII vs a "B prestige" DIII is not a 50/50 probability.
Whether that means 60/40 or something in the middle is up for debate.

the OP and gil were working on a situation where the d3 team had higher presitge. gil knows there is a division disadvantage, he just factored it all in together (the division advantage for the d2 team minus the prestige advantage for the d3 team)

dasher was using a hypothetical of equal prestige teams d2 vs d3

Posted by oldave on 11/4/2019 8:21:00 PM (view original):
the OP and gil were working on a situation where the d3 team had higher presitge. gil knows there is a division disadvantage, he just factored it all in together (the division advantage for the d2 team minus the prestige advantage for the d3 team)

dasher was using a hypothetical of equal prestige teams d2 vs d3

I don't think he was when he said 30% at 10% per letter grade. That would indicate that the prestige benefit between divisions is completely linear.

Such as:
D+ D2 prestige is 10% less than C+ D2 prestige.
A+ D3 prestige is 10% less than D+ D2 prestige

This isn't correct.