What's your strategy in ARB? Topic

Knights37
Posts: 42 (0)
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29
Prospect
Offer player ask amount?
Offer 70% of ask?
Some other formula to determine how much to offer the player?
2/26/2020 7:23 AM
damag
Posts: 5545 (0)
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1749 77 11
Veteran
I offer about 80%. Maybe it helps my odds of winning - a bit better than the mandatory 70% - I don't know. But my personal feeling is that it's really no more than a coin flip.

2/26/2020 7:31 AM
hockey1984
Posts: 2748 (0)
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1 1 7 172 106 3 108
Prospect
I base off of the average amount of money offered for players in the same situation if its less. If its more I go with between 70%-80%. I don't calculate it. I just eyeball it. I don't think any of it makes a difference.
2/26/2020 7:48 AM
joekendall
Posts: 673 (0)
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201
Prospect
Posted by hockey1984 on 2/26/2020 7:48:00 AM (view original):
I base off of the average amount of money offered for players in the same situation if its less. If its more I go with between 70%-80%. I don't calculate it. I just eyeball it. I don't think any of it makes a difference.
I do something very similar.
2/26/2020 10:03 AM
2xRedRaider
Posts: 132 (0)
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67 1 24
Prospect
90% of ask; "feel" like a 50/50 result, so basically a coin flip
2/27/2020 8:14 PM
lamps24
Posts: 63 (0)
All Star
37
Prospect
Have seen guys successfully offer $400k when the ask is $1.4 mil.
2/27/2020 11:07 PM
jamier2003
Posts: 208 (0)
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14 172 34 211 2
Prospect
yeah, I go low. I have not seen a correlation between reasonable offers and likelihood of winning. It is random is seems so might as well maximize savings.
2/28/2020 2:10 PM
slashtc
Posts: 4791 (0)
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I tend to go low; the thing I don't know is if going low (and especially if you win) if that impacts future asks and/or his long-term expectations. I don't document it to the point I can make a case either way, but it's something to at least think about if it's someone you'll want long-term.
3/1/2020 5:10 PM
Vitamin_C
Posts: 739 (0)
All Star
44
Prospect
Pretty confident arb demands are based off playing time and performance, where as long term demands are driven by OVR rating. So arb shouldn't affect future demands.

Could be sss or bad luck, but seems like when I win in arb the player underperforms. Similar to how many players seem to over perform in their contract year.
3/1/2020 9:41 PM
NickKappel
Posts: 1088 (0)
Hall of Famer
125
Prospect
I've had quite a bit of luck winning ARB1 cases for $396K. It doesn't always go my way, but I'd say 50% of the time it does. And with good players, too, who were asking $1.5M or more. A few examples:

Alvin Mahoney (S52)
Geraldo Plata (S45)
Rhiner Limon (S39)
Albert Price (S42)
Quinton Purcell (S37)
Domingo Martin (S37)
3/4/2020 2:53 PM
What's your strategy in ARB? Topic
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