Tried to find a recent discussion involving any objective criteria (if there is any) in regard to EE decision making of players.

Is it actually random based upon the Big Board? Is each player assigned a probability % based upon the big board and then the sim goes down the list until draft class is full?

Its a part of the game that I don't understand as to how the sim works and am curious. No complaints just looking for information/theories regarding the process.

Thanks in advance.

Here is my understanding from conversations with ADMIN and deductive reasoning.

EDITED (forgot about "staying")
The draft starts with the #1 player on the board with the following probabilities of leaving :
Graduating = 100%
Most likely = ~99% - ~66%
On the fence = ~66% - ~33%
Likely Staying = ~33% - ~10%
Staying = ~10% - ~1%

The %s will differ depending on how many players could leave early.

Basically the engine rolls for #1, then #2, then #3, etc until all 60 slots are filled. Depending on the rolls the draft could spill onto names not on the board.
When I was at Wisconsin I had an excel spreadsheet that mimicked this to get a better feel for my chances at losing each player. Now that I am at Georgetown I don't have to worry about it ………...

yes namshub, that is right. what mully says is right, too.

basically, the big board is the 100% accurate ranking of draft order, before end of season stuff is taken into account. on top of the big board, also goes the team's NT success as well as AA awards. then, you get a final ranking that looks a lot like the big board, but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher or so and so forth.

anyway, from there, its just a straight RNG per player. there is no player preference (anymore), so its 100% about what it says on the board, and what decisions are made by the folks above the player in question (if more players hit their RNG and leave, then less odds for the guys down below).

What % chance do you think a JR at 100 on the big board has to leave? What about a SO at 100 the big board?

33% and 1%?

What about a JR at 1 on the big board.... is it actually 99%? Or more like 95?

" but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher"

This is way too high. The most I've seen is a jump of about 5. I've seen some title winners have players who stayed flat too. I've seen some teams with 1st round exits have players that moved up a couple spots on the big board. Honestly I haven't studied it enough but I haven't made any sense of it yet.

To cubcub-
A junior ranked 100th would have about a 35% chance of leaving and soph ranked 100th would have about a 10% chance.

Of what I've tracked, I've seen 18 non seniors ranked #1 with only 1 of them ever staying. If you expand to players ranked 1-5, it's 62/65 left early for ~95%.

Great stuff. Backs up alot of what I had thought. It's all about the roll of the dice in the end game.

Anecdotally, just had the #3 Draft Board Junior stay on a team in my conference. Based upon above that was a statistical improbability.

I'm well aware of statistical improbabilities.

PSA, Phelan has 20 graduating seniors on the big board right now. And none until #20, meaning the top 19 projected as of now are all early entries. With so few graduating seniors taking up guaranteed spots, there might be more than a handful off the board early entries. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, among Phelan D1 folk. You’ve been warned.

Posted by Benis on 4/20/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
" but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher"

This is way too high. The most I've seen is a jump of about 5. I've seen some title winners have players who stayed flat too. I've seen some teams with 1st round exits have players that moved up a couple spots on the big board. Honestly I haven't studied it enough but I haven't made any sense of it yet.

To cubcub-
A junior ranked 100th would have about a 35% chance of leaving and soph ranked 100th would have about a 10% chance.

Of what I've tracked, I've seen 18 non seniors ranked #1 with only 1 of them ever staying. If you expand to players ranked 1-5, it's 62/65 left early for ~95%.

Benis - I don't think you can say that based on his info. You also need to know is he is Likely staying, fence, likely leaving. That determines the % chance even more than their relative position.

School year also does not matter. Its 2 things : 1) Status (as above) and 2) # on the big board.

Cub - If you can also give me how many players are eligible to leave early I can give you what my excel file would calculate.

Shoe - I don't think that's extraordinary. The last season I tracked while at Wisconsin their were only 16 seniors on the top 60.

Posted by cubcub113 on 4/20/2020 3:27:00 PM (view original):
What % chance do you think a JR at 100 on the big board has to leave? What about a SO at 100 the big board?

33% and 1%?

What about a JR at 1 on the big board.... is it actually 99%? Or more like 95?

Assuming the JR (100) is on the fence then ~35%
Assuming the JR (1) is likely going then ~99%

Assuming the SO (100) is likely staying then ~11%
Assuming the SO (100) is staying then ~1%

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 10:07:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 4/20/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
" but with the title winner's guys 10 spots higher"

This is way too high. The most I've seen is a jump of about 5. I've seen some title winners have players who stayed flat too. I've seen some teams with 1st round exits have players that moved up a couple spots on the big board. Honestly I haven't studied it enough but I haven't made any sense of it yet.

To cubcub-
A junior ranked 100th would have about a 35% chance of leaving and soph ranked 100th would have about a 10% chance.

Of what I've tracked, I've seen 18 non seniors ranked #1 with only 1 of them ever staying. If you expand to players ranked 1-5, it's 62/65 left early for ~95%.

Benis - I don't think you can say that based on his info. You also need to know is he is Likely staying, fence, likely leaving. That determines the % chance even more than their relative position.

School year also does not matter. Its 2 things : 1) Status (as above) and 2) # on the big board.

Cub - If you can also give me how many players are eligible to leave early I can give you what my excel file would calculate.

"school year does not matter"

A sophomore listed at 50 has a MUCH lower chance of leaving early as a Junior ranked at 50. A Likely going Sophomore has a lower chance of leaving than a Likely Going Junior.

If you just look at the top 17 ranked players where both Soph and Juniors are called Likely Going, the juniors have a ~91% chance of leaving while Soph is 87%. Not huge so maybe the sample size is too small but seems sizable to me (216 juniors and 89 sophs)

The craziest thing that no one realizes is that a Soph ranked 50th has same chance of leaving a Soph ranked 90th. A junior ranked 50th has the same chance of leaving as a junior ranked 90th.

Posted by mullycj on 4/21/2020 10:17:00 AM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 4/20/2020 3:27:00 PM (view original):
What % chance do you think a JR at 100 on the big board has to leave? What about a SO at 100 the big board?

33% and 1%?

What about a JR at 1 on the big board.... is it actually 99%? Or more like 95?

Assuming the JR (100) is on the fence then ~35%
Assuming the JR (1) is likely going then ~99%

Assuming the SO (100) is likely staying then ~11%
Assuming the SO (100) is staying then ~1%

Ah I think I see your confusion Mully.

A Soph ranked 100 CAN'T be classified as Staying. All Sophomores on the big board are either Likely Going, On The Fence or Likely Staying. 1-17 are likely going, 18-27 are on the fence and 28-100 are likely staying. only Freshmen can be considered Staying.

I looked at 42 Sophomores ranked between 95-100 and 5 left early for a rate of ~9%.

*Technically, a sophomore can be listed as staying, which indicates he was ineligible his freshman year, is in his first year of eligibility, and is not projected high enough to have a higher outlook level.