i have a few thoughts on this. sort of as a general rule, i find the answers to these questions usually entail both the team seeming better than they are and some coaching stuff. this one is firmly in that camp IMO - just sort of saying like, i know (insert anything) isn't enough to explain the performance by itself. but taken together, i think so - and probably sure, a bit of it is bad luck - but i actually don't think that is the main culprit. starting with the perceptions stuff.
- number one, this just is not a very good offensive team. godbold is perfectly good but generally speaking a guy with B IQ leading the team scoring wise is a bad sign (i know hes b+ now but assuming lot of that conf play was done at a b). there is no elite lp scoring on the team and after the 1st guard, there isn't even a second solid per scorer. plus you appear to be running your starting guards on beyond fairly fresh fatigue setting because of the lack of depth - which frankly if you are running zone with this team, is probably a good thing - but the consequence is, your already weak per scoring gets even weaker. godbold with A iq could tolerate that much better than he can now, in offensive efficiency terms. also, the pass/iq coming from your back court, especially pg, is pretty important in getting your team better looks. given the fatigue issues, lower iq, and not so great bh/pass at the 1-2, you aren't doing great there either - not bad by any means, but normally i'd be hoping for that to help bail me out with offense like yours - but no luck. then the one-sided nature of your offense (few 3s) makes you vulnerable to the opponent playing a minus. so kinda rough all around, and the singular major bright spot is dampened by the circumstances (fatigue).
- number two - that schedule - man that is a bad schedule. 6 home games in non conference when playing in a conference that tough? its brutal! scheduling remains a good 20% of the success of a team like yours, and probably more for your specific situation this season - and that is not a category that is helping you right now. you do have 2 top 100 rpi wins from non conf which is better than nothing, but with a team like yours, you should be doing significantly better than that. your contribution to RPI from those non conf opponents, which is half of your total rpi in that period, is garbage - those teams are like, barely .500. your opponents opponents component, 25%, is awful because those are sims - which is always the case with sims - but usually people get better sims which at least present some positives to offset that negative. the 25% of rpi that is your w/l, going into a tough conf... having a mere 8.6 wins from your 9 sims, which should basically be guaranteed wins, is downright criminal. you should have 12.6 - a 47% higher mark than you achieved. and all this should be viewed with the understanding that sim-filled schedules ,even in the best of cases, are almost always meaningfully sub-optimal.
coaching stuff...
1) well i guess scheduling is kind of a coaching thing but that has nothing to do with the team this year (you set it last year for starters), expectations IMO should be based on the facts on hand at the start of the season, and if im looking at your team and your schedule to start the season, i'm not thinking the NT bid is safe. a team like yours, middling team in a tough conference, really needs to pad their resume, and you should be doing the work to find appropriate humans when you have such an important scheduling situation (good records, solid shot at top 100 rpi, but weak talent - all on the road - look for the best humans in weak confs), even if you usually don't.
2) your offense basically seems like its going to suck no matter what you do and i kind of think the normal approach of consolidating time to your better guys just isn't getting you the dividends, in part because those better guys just aren't that amazing, and in part because your best player is young and playing fatigued.
i don't really see much help for you in that way there. however, there's a simple rule in this game that applies here - if you aren't going to score very well, you'd better be winning the possession battle! that first lost to USC (i only peeked around), i mean man, that 3-2 +3 makes sense there but you just got wrecked on possessions. i think you need to be playing the possession game personally, and that means pressing. your starting defense from the 1-3 is quite good, and really your starting reb from the 3-5 is too - you could be winning significant on possessions, but you don't seem to be winning at all, in conf. i would still run slowdown, you definitely have a crappy bench, but i think this would work much better (everyone on fairly fresh) than the current scheme of focusing minutes which isn't really helping your offense much. i think if you can't help your offense much regardless - at least help your TO generation and rebounding by running press.
littler stuff:
- spillman is by a decent margin your best of the spillman, pulido, markert trio - but hes playing significantly less than pulido. i think if you go zone, smith has to be your backup 1, which i think you already did, but also basically has to play the 2, and you have to be getting spillman sf minutes where he hurts you less than any of those 3 crap guys hurt you in any position. in press, this is harder, because you can't exactly do what you want rotation wise. still, he should be doing as much as possible, it feels to me, among the trio. perhaps in slowdown press hes your backup sg with none of the trio listed at the 1 and markert as backup sf?
- i am fairly confused about the starting bigs. first off, with your team, i simply don't think you can afford to play nearly this much 3-2. you cant score well and you are playing the worst possessions set that exists - sometimes i guess - but your team as a zone team, i'm expecting to be cheating inside at every turn, making those strong pac 10 teams beat me from the line, and giving myself a bit of a rebounding edge - at least compared to the brutal 3-2! so, in a 2-3, the big stack is sort of really significantly negative, because of the importance of a strong def/blk/ath/iq 5 - but you don't play it much, and defensively, it doesn't matter who is where. but still, in the 3-2, it still seems clearly wrong. rebounding has always mattered a little more at the 5, smoke em if you got em, and you do... plus offensively, due to his ath/lp based scoring compared to per/spd, ray feels like more natural scoring wise at the 5. im sort of confused about the arrangement because i guess i see no benefit to the way it is, even if the range of negatives diminishes with the 3-2? i also just don't get the 3-2 fixation when you have a SF who can swing well, like you even ran a 3-2 -5 one game - why? you are paying a significant rebounding penalty to play that 3-2 there, against a team who doesn't even take per shots - i guess it seems weird to me.
- mccathern is being significantly under utilized offensively and has been all year. wait a sec, i missed his reb was so low. so he plays sf behind smith? ok thats good, somehow i had him as a pf in my head. the stuff mostly still applies about that bad trio, should be spillman playing - but obviously mccathern is above those 3. so, i would still try for spillman over pulido - especially in press. honestly i would have even tried some mccathern at the 2 and spillman at the 3 in zone. if you do go zone, i would probably consider that in a 2-3 zone. cant hurt? perhaps even in the press. regardless, hes not even close to doing enough offensively.
- despite the risk of DTs and stuff, for how many minutes hes playing, godbold has definitely not been shooting enough.
in summary - it feels to me like mccarthern, spillman, and gallaway, and really even a bit of graham who is one of your better mid level scorers (at PF only), could all play a little more, and satisfy your slowdown press requirements. this would help you on possessions *substantially* compared to the 3-2 zone and i think it would make you a lot more competitive in conference play. and at least go 2-3 if you stay zone... with some more time to those 3 and probably knock a minutes rating down (if you are doing minutes) on bodbold while upping his distro, because i think efficiency wise, you are losing out there. definitely fix the big starters. there's no helping your non conference schedule with coaching this year but that is just incredibly damaging, and especially for medium quality teams in strong conferences - that is precisely the circumstance in which calibrated scheduling is most important.
i think all of those things in totality... sort of get you from A to B. im sure im flubbing some stuff here and don't know this team that well so im sure my opinions right now are far from perfect (even my own teams i have to experiment and observe to get them right), but i do think there's clearly some room for adjustment. hopefully that helps! i know you are a good coach and so i tried to be as candid as possible - but hopefully not too much!