I've got a 2009 prog team headed to the playoffs, and have to make a decision at the transaction deadline on which full time 3B to send down. Real life stats:

Andy LaRoche
B+/A-
.258/.330/.401/.731

Adrian Beltre
B/A
.265/.304/.379/.683

Going into the season I expected the decision would be easy: Beltre goes down. But take a gander at their SIM stats:

LaRoche
364 PA
.222/.288/.313/.602

Beltre
270 PA
.337/.356/.450/.805

I know, small sample size, and I've never believed in "poisoned" or "boosted" players, but gee whiz. That's a pretty stark contrast. They haven't been used enough to make their performance histories worth taking seriously (LaRoche used only three times, Beltre twice), but LaRoche does have the edge there.

Thoughts?

What’re their splits like? Did one get a platoon advantage and the other face same handed, one play more in favorable ballparks, etc?

with that few PA, I’d try to see those breakdowns... and would’ve leaned toward sending Beltre down. But those stats are stark between them. I’d try to figure out why as best I could

I tried to get Beltre some starts against catchers with weak arms, since he can steal a little. Otherwise neither player was used in a such a way that would have been an advantage to one or the other.

I’d run laroche still... it’s a tough call, but I gotta believe his underlying stats will come through

beltre in a heartbeat

mariner

For once I agree with he who chucks bags.

I'm going with Beltre, for the dumbest of reasons: He's my keeper 3B in this prog, while LaRoche is just a one-season temp. Don't want any hard feelings with Adrian going forward!

LaRoche had a big edge in PA/162 at 593 to 477. If you're at all worried about fatigue through a playoff run, I'd wonder if Beltre will hurt you there.

Also, the underlying numbers support LaRoche regardless.

Not at all worried about fatigue. Beltre will be batting 9th (we use a DH) and he'll enter the post-season with the 5% bonus. I've had batters with 300 PA enter the playoffs with the 5% bonus and make it through all three rounds starting every game and never dropping below 100%.

This is a strong prog team, and both of these guys are #9 hitters for me, so it's not that big a deal either way. I was just curious who other owners would pick. So far it's a 2-2 split.

Posted by crazystengel on 12/25/2020 4:52:00 AM (view original):
I'm going with Beltre, for the dumbest of reasons: He's my keeper 3B in this prog, while LaRoche is just a one-season temp. Don't want any hard feelings with Adrian going forward!

Beltre stays. . mostly for this reason

I'd keep Beltre too!

I think you made the right decision... but then again, I'm playing against you.