Let me begin by saying, as I have often in the past, how much I love this theme. It is probably my favorite in all of WhatIf. And the decision to rank draft order from high to low added another layer of strategy, and therefore made it that much more enjoyable. Kudos to schwarze for this idea, and thanks to him as always for running an extremely efficient draft.
Obviously, one of the major considerations when drafting in this theme is to try to limit wasted salary. As such, my overarching philosophy has always been “it’s not wasted [salary] if you use it” (henceforth known as INWIYUI). The majority of potential wasted salary lies with the pitchers, so the idea is to lower your usual pitching standards and use the savings, from lesser pitchers and non-wasted salary, to build a killer offense to compensate. Now, I’ve used this strategy in the past and it hasn’t always worked out so well. I don’t recall any of my last several teams in this theme being particularly good. I think this was due to a combination of poor execution (I ended up wasting a bunch of salary anyway) and inappropriateness of the strategy (there are limits to how bad of a pitcher you can use effectively at a given cap level). In fact, for this draft I actually considered the crazy notion of abandoning any philosophy and, you know, just trying to build a good team. But when I looked at the cap and the nominated players I thought that the INWIYUI pitching strategy could work here so I decided to give it one more shot.
How did I do? I believe I executed the strategy as well as possible. No one ever gets every player they want, but my team looks pretty much exactly the way I intended it to look. Of course, nothing is easier than executing a bad strategy, so it remains to be seen whether this was the correct approach, but at least I’m happy with my performance in the draft. Now, on to the round-by-round analysis. Stats shown are normalized.
Initial nomination: 1975 Red Sox Fred Lynn (.334/.401/.568, B/A+, $7.8M)
My initial idea to nominate Lynn came from recently using him for the first time and being pleased with his performance. I really didn’t expect this to stick, though. I usually try to do more to screw over others with my nomination, and I figured I’d eventually change it to a bad starting OF with one cheap season. However, I gradually warmed to the idea of using Lynn. I estimated that my roster would shake out as $60M offense, $35M pitching, and $5M waste, and this Lynn fits perfectly in that scenario. Plus, I often tend to neglect defense, but with these pitchers I’ll need all the defense I can get so I figured I’d lock in a good CF so I don’t end up with like a B-/D+ there. I considered using the $9M Lynn but I don’t think he’s appreciably better and he wouldn’t have gotten me any higher than the 3rd overall pick that I got with this one. I’m happy with my nomination.
Round 1: 1978 Giants Bob Knepper (260 IP, 2.70 ERC#, $7.3M)
Pettitte, Buehrle, Garcia and Knepper were all potential minefields in this draft. I considered it highly doubtful that I’d be able to get “good” (in this context, roughly sub-3.50 ERC#) versions of all four, so I decided early on that I’d punt one of them. I’d still use them, but I wouldn’t worry about how bad they were, figuring that if I somehow make the postseason I can remove them from the rotation. I decided to punt Buehrle because his worst seasons weren’t all that much worse than his middling ones, and I decided to choose Knepper here because his worst seasons are beyond godawful and this season is eminently usable at this cap, and drafting a usable season allowed me to maintain my spot in the draft order. As it turns out, he ended up being my best SP. INWIYUI is not for the faint of heart.
Round 2: 2012 Yankees Andy Pettitte (75 IP, 2.94 ERC#, $1.9M)
Not surprisingly, 13 of the 18 picks before this one were starting pitchers. The two “good” full-season Pettittes were already gone, and it would be inadvisable to draft 200+ IP versions of all six nominated SPs, so I went with a solid RP option here. He also came with a $7.8M, good offensive and defensive Robinson Cano who would fit well in my position player strategy if I ended up using him. However, this did drop me a couple of draft spots.
Round 3: 2012 Dodgers Juan Uribe (scrub, $655k)
The way this draft would play out with respect to SPs was pretty predictable. Good seasons and cheap seasons would be snapped up early. Players like Uribe (and Offerman and even Braun) were harder to figure out, because INWIYUI doesn’t only apply to pitchers. There were potentially usable seasons of all three players, especially at this cap and if you hold your nose hard enough, but I had no idea how low people would be willing to go, and therefore how much demand there would be to lock up cheap seasons instead. Perhaps to my detriment, I decided early on that I had no appetite for using Uribe at all, so when the cheapest available Uribe was drafted I immediately took the only remaining sub-$1M version. After all, he only had two remaining seasons under $2.3M, and this one came with a couple of potentially good relievers and even a really good Kershaw if I somehow got enough cheap nominated SPs to enable me to use him. But the anticipated Uribe run never came (the next one was drafted a full two rounds later), I never used any of his teammates, and it dropped me another four draft slots, so this was a waste of a pick, right? Not really, IMO. Nobody who I had targeted was drafted in the next round, and this pick still saved me $2M or $3M in cap space. What looks like a waste allowed me to stay on target, so I’m OK with this.
Round 4: 1996 Padres Ken Caminiti (.326/.407/.608, B-/A+, $8.9M)
From the outset I intended to draft this Caminiti. His range would take away a lot of hits (and my pitchers sure would allow plenty of those) and his salary was high but workable. The question was if anyone else would consider spending $9M on a third baseman, and if so, when. When two of the very few good Caminitis went off the board earlier this round I decided that I couldn’t risk missing out on this one. Did I need to pick him this early? It’s impossible to say. Again, no Caminiti was picked for another two rounds after this, but does that mean that I got the last good one for this stage of the draft or that I totally reached? Even if 14 people think the latter, it only takes one to have thought the former in order to have messed up my team. Either way, I think he’ll work out fine. And he comes with Scott Sanders (144 IP, 2.52 ERC#, $4.5M) who seems especially suited for success at this talent level. From the moment I drafted him I considered him a given on my roster. We’ll see if that was justified.
Round 5: 2000 Mariners Freddy Garcia (125 IP, 3.69 ERC#, $2.7M)
My Caminiti largesse moved me up 3 spots in the draft order, but my stint in the top half would be brief. I strongly considered this Garcia the previous round. I found him desirable because he had a relatively low number of innings and if I try really hard I can imagine him getting some hitters out at this cap level. I have a very active imagination. But most of all I wanted him because of who he brought to the team: Alex Rodriguez (.309/.409/.576, A/B, $8.7M). There weren’t all that many great offensive shortstops available, and many who were came with even less useful nominees. This Garcia also included Edgar Martinez (.316/.412/.548, D/D-, $5.3M), who I wasn’t planning on using since there were so many Galarragas with good range who could hit, but would allow me to save salary if need be and if I was willing to sacrifice defense. Spoiler alert: I’m always willing to sacrifice defense (which demonstrates precisely why I nominated Lynn) so I used Edgar. Of course, bolding his name and listing his stats already spoiled that. Sorry.
Round 6: 2002 Mariners Jose Offerman (scrub, $1.35M)
A funny thing happened on the way to my 6th round pick. There was a run on cheap Offermans. Three of them were drafted. And if there’s one thing you don’t want to do, besides needlessly extending a run, it’s to miss out on a run. In a perfect world you want to be like Mexican tap water: you want to cause the runs. But at the very least you want to get the last viable player of the run. And while $1.35M worth of useless isn’t great, it sure beats $3M of the same.
Round 7: 1993 Giants Barry Bonds (.335/.459/.670, B/C, $10.1M)
Montezuma’s…er…Offerman’s revenge dropped me to 11th in the draft order, so I decided to nip that in the bud. Three things happened back in the 5th round that made me think I could pull off this pick. One, my Garcia pick gave me Edgar, who I would end up using, because, two, the ’97 Galarraga was drafted, which was the only Galarraga I ever really wanted. That had the potential to save me about $1M. Three, the 1985 Porter was drafted, who I was planning on platooning with the 1975 Fisk, for about $6.3M total. With that Porter gone, I scrapped that idea and decided to settle for whatever Porter was left at the end of the draft, saving me an additional $2M. $2M + $1M = $3M, and a $7M Bonds + $3M = a $10M Bonds. Of course, in order to pull this off I needed a cheap Galarraga.
Round 8: 1985 Expos Andres Galarraga (scrub, $249k)
Do you remember that scene in Office Space when they’re in the car and they check to see how much money has been funneled from Initech into their account due to the software they installed that was supposed to send them the rounded off fractions of a penny from each transaction? It ends up being a lot, and Michael Bolton confesses that he probably put a decimal point in the wrong place because he always overlooks some mundane detail. That’s like me preparing for this draft, except my plan doesn’t result in Jennifer Aniston dumping me. My plan just involves setting up my spreadsheet, and then not-cross-checking it with schwarze’s list of available seasons of nominated players. I always overlook some mundane detail, like the fact that the 2001 Rangers Galarraga has a cheap partial season. Now, if I had realized that, would I have waited another round to get my cheap Galarraga? I have no idea. I just like Office Space.
Round 9: 2015 Blue Jays Mark Buehrle (199 IP, 3.80 ERC#, $3.9M)
Like my Uribe pick, this pick looks meh on the surface, but helped to get me to where I wanted to be. On one hand, this Buehrle is not appreciably different than the one that redcped got with the last pick of the 13th round. But on the other hand, this one came with a large number of potential relievers, two of which I used: David Price (74 IP, 2.01 ERC#, $2.6M) and Marcus Stroman (27 IP, 2.17 ERC#, $719k), plus versatile sub Cliff Pennington (scrub hitter but non-horrible defense at 2B, SS, 3B and OF, $252k). Also, the extra IP from the other Buehrle would’ve been a waste, and the $450k I saved helped me roster an excellent reserve OF and PH. Baby steps.
Round 10: 1977 Rangers Gaylord Perry (238 IP, 3.37 ERC#, $5.5M)
As I wrote when I made this pick, I hate, hate, hate taking the second-to-last version of a player, especially this early in the draft. What hurt even more was that there were four versions of Perry available and only two would be drafted. But I really could only stomach one of them. Two had ERC# well over 4, which I wasn’t willing to use (and, you know, INWIYUI), and the other had 344 innings, which meant that if I took him and couldn’t get a low inning Clemens then I would have virtually no bullpen. I wasn’t willing to take the chance that bheid408 would just take the cheapest Perry (which he ended up doing) so I bit the bullet and took this Perry here. I’m happy with the way my team turned out, but this was super annoying at the time.
Round 11: 1978 Mariners Steve Braun (scrub, $352k)
Another blasted run. I knew it would happen; I just thought it would happen one round later. I was fortunate though; it started 7 picks after my previous pick, and I stayed at the same draft slot as last round, so I was able to get the second-to-last palatable Braun. Whew.
Round 12: 1999 Indians Manny Ramirez (.327/.432/.636, C/D+, $7.3M)
In my initial planning for this draft I had always assumed that I’d get the ’99 Manny. I figured that there were enough good Manny seasons, and that there’d be enough people facing a salary crunch, that I’d be the only one willing to spend $7M plus on him. But I had banked on it enough that I started to get nervous as the draft transpired and extenuating circumstances kept preventing me from taking him earlier. I had wanted to draft him since round 9 but felt I couldn’t for various reasons. I was ecstatic to take him here; not only because he rakes but because I noticed (seriously, only as I drafted him) that he comes with a really good Roberto Alomar (.317/.412/.503, A/C-, $7.5M). To this point I figured I’d either use the 2012 Cano or the sneaky-good and cheaper 1993 Robby Thompson at second base. But I expectorate (see what I did there?) that Alomar will outperform either of them, and I thought I just might have the cap space to make it happen. Also, I didn’t realize it at the time but because of earlier frugality in round 9 I would end up rostering 4th OF and pinch-hitter extraordinaire Jacob Cruz (.323/.359/.482, A+/D+, $758k). This was my favorite pick of the draft.
Round 13: 1977 Padres Rollie Fingers (133 IP, 3.04 ERC#, $3.3M)
There’s a strange class of jokes, if you can call them that, that seem to be most appreciated by roughly 12-year-olds, that consist of long, drawn out narratives ending with a punchline that’s simply a play on words. My favorite as a lad ended with the phrase “I left my heart in Sam Frank’s disco”, but the most prevalent in my era concluded with “let your pages do the walking through the yellow fingers.” I thought of that often throughout this draft. Which is neither here nor there, but I was marginally pleased to get this “good” a Fingers this late.
Round 14: 1984 Cardinals Darrell Porter (.235/.336/ .369, C/B/B+, $3.2M)
Yep, he sucks, but I made that sacrifice so I could have 7 really good offensive players and not have to worry about catcher until the end. The other ~100 PAs will be handled by 1978 Giants John Tamargo (.243/.365/.342, D/B-/D, $562k) who is really good at not costing a lot of money.
Round 15: 1993 Roger Clemens (192 IP, 3.34 ERC#, $4.7M)
There were better Clemens seasons still available, but this one, akin to Lebowski’s rug that the Chinaman peed on, really tied the team together.
Epilogue
Again, this team ended up looking exactly as I envisioned it would before the draft began. But, again, executing a poor draft strategy is always easy. Will my pitchers be able to get enough batters out to allow my offense to win the day? The proof will be in the pudding of the season. I’m looking forward to tasting it.
Offense
.312/.408/.557, $60.7M
Pitching
1467 IP, 3.11 ERC#, $37.1M
Waste
$2.25M
1/29/2021 12:08 AM (edited)