Here’s an easy one, very limited range of choices, but should be informative.

International player has no preferences. Blank slate.

Team A:
Prestige - A (high end of A. <edit> A lottery pick bumped prestige to A+ after the draft.)
Promises - 25 min + start
AP - 999
Visits - 11 HV

Team B:
Prestige: B-
Promises - 25 min + start
AP - 997
Visits - 11 HV

Do you think there were odds, and if so, what were they?

65/35

wow that is a pretty sweet battle in terms of eliminating variables. i am still a noob at this 3.0 recruiting stuff, but ill throw out a number i suppose, 65%

i feel like there are almost definitely odds... seems like its almost for sure a very high - high.

my math would be something like this:
4 partial grades, 10% each, 1.1^4 = 1.46
1.46:1 = 59.4% of effort
round up for leader advantage and whatever else - pretty wishy washy on this step - mid to high 60s?

edit - to throw in the range - 3 to 5 partial grades
1.1^3 = 1.33; 1.33:1 = 57.1% of effort
1.1^5 = 1.61; 1.61:1 = 61.7% of effort

notice how tiny the % of effort change is resulting from 2 partial grades of prestige here. in both cases, that mid to high 60s is still sounding close - maybe low to mid on the 3 prestige grade case, high to low 70s on the 4 prestige case, but my guess is the raw odd impact is relatively muted.

i just wanted to include that, because the impact of prestige on the % of effort is vastly smaller than the impact of prestige on the prestige multiplier, and i do not think the bonus for being ahead mostly or fully compensates (but it does partially offset). i wanted to point that out because i think a lot of folks fail to recognize this mathematical phenomenon, and what a divergence it is from how 2.0 functioned. this is, IMO, one of the underlying reasons that the community as a whole over values the importance of prestige (and baseline) in d1.

edit2: this is based on the original post where team 1 is presumed to be A prestige. as indicated above, shoe's change to low A+ would barely register in my way of thinking, couple points.

Quick edit regarding team A’s prestige

How did you get information from both teams?

my guess is he sitemailed after the battle and they swapped notes, which is a fairly widely used and 100% above board tactic. and one i HIGHLY recommend to aspiring great coaches.

Posted by skinndogg on 2/3/2021 1:31:00 PM (view original):
How did you get information from both teams?

Yes, gil’s correct. We did battle analyses with seble during beta for 3.0 to give folks more of a feel for how the value of effort and modifiers interact with each other, without necessarily giving away the specific value behind each. Once they started publishing the considering odds for teams in signing range after the battle, some of us picked this up again.

To my thinking, the big thing is to not disclose before you’re done recruiting for the season, so you’re not giving away any information important to active battles. If it’s a battle I find interesting or noteworthy, I usually reach out to ask if they’re willing to share prior to the end of recruiting, but mention that we won’t discuss specifics til it’s all over for both of us, if they agree.

Team A 68-32

67-33 A

i guess we know for sure it isn't 65-70, because we certainly can't all be right. i suppose there is a first for everything, but curious to find out if we are all too high or too low

75/25 team A

Not sure the odds as I have limited experience at D1 where this mostly happens.... but this does provide some insight into prestige since that's the only variable in play, given the equal effort by both schools.

Does prestige change before the second recruiting session (it would appear so based on his comment about the draft)?

The final considering odds were 74-26 (for A of course). The player did sign with A.

The reason I brought up the draft pick was to indicate how close team A was to A+ prestige. Prestige changes from draft picks definitely don’t take effect until the following season, they don’t even appear until after the draft, which is at rollover.

So, I guess the lesson: each 1/3 of letter grade accounts for about 8% advantage in a dual battle for a recruit, all other things considered equal?
I am certainly not a math guy, so here is my logic...
Am I thinking of this correctly?

A (almost A+) = 74% based on our data vs B- school
A = 74/26 (8% reduction is about 6 percentage points each grade... of course it hits both schools, so it's like they get 16% closer each step)
A- = 68 (had the school been an A- it would have been 68/32 split)
B+ = 62 / 38
B = 56 / 44
B- = 50 / 50

If we just call him an A+ prestige makes it seem more like 6-7% advantage:
A+ 74/26 vs. B-
A = 69/31
A- = 64/36
B+ = 59/41
B = 54/46
B- = 49/51