Greetings,

Has anyone done any spreadsheet/analysis of how close players get to their projections, given other ratings? Something like "on average, guys with X Patience get to within 3.6 points of their projected total vRHP after 4 years" or anything along those lines. I know there are several variables in play, so hard to be precise, but maybe someone has done some regression-type analysis along these lines.

I know we all eyeball it and say "this guy will probably get to around X"...just curious if someone took an actual empirical look at it.

Since the original scout's projections are fuzzy anywhere between 10-15 points even with a maxed scouting budget, it is difficult to know the player's true peak potential. The best way to project a player is to try to find a similar player with the same background and see how he progressed. Assuming the makeup rating is close, the prospect will likely progress in a similar fashion assuming he gets normal playing time and the coaches aren't the worst in league.

An exception to this is the medical trick. If you have a guy who hits 90 in a coacable rating after a medical recovery, but then the very next regular development cycle the rating moves to.89, it is safe to say the player's true peak for that rating is 89.

Posted by tlowster on 3/24/2021 10:29:00 PM (view original):
Since the original scout's projections are fuzzy anywhere between 10-15 points even with a maxed scouting budget, it is difficult to know the player's true peak potential. The best way to project a player is to try to find a similar player with the same background and see how he progressed. Assuming the makeup rating is close, the prospect will likely progress in a similar fashion assuming he gets normal playing time and the coaches aren't the worst in league.

An exception to this is the medical trick. If you have a guy who hits 90 in a coacable rating after a medical recovery, but then the very next regular development cycle the rating moves to.89, it is safe to say the player's true peak for that rating is 89.

Oddly enough I think I have a player to argue your last point. Johan Butcher has a VsL of 100. Since HBD started I have never heard of a owner even mentioning of a player with 100 for a rating. Yet I used the medical trick and broke him last year and at the beginning of this season, here we are.

Although it is possible but unlikely that Johan's ceiling is 100 I think maybe every time he got injured his potential for a ceiling bumped up a bit. So starting at 80 as his ceiling 5 seasons ago if he got injured it bumped to 85. So if I got him to 86 then it would turn back a point. Then next season he gets injured and the ceiling bumps to 90 and on and on. (I had him at 101 for VsL at one point in time)

Posted by hockey1984 on 3/25/2021 6:59:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tlowster on 3/24/2021 10:29:00 PM (view original):
Since the original scout's projections are fuzzy anywhere between 10-15 points even with a maxed scouting budget, it is difficult to know the player's true peak potential. The best way to project a player is to try to find a similar player with the same background and see how he progressed. Assuming the makeup rating is close, the prospect will likely progress in a similar fashion assuming he gets normal playing time and the coaches aren't the worst in league.

An exception to this is the medical trick. If you have a guy who hits 90 in a coacable rating after a medical recovery, but then the very next regular development cycle the rating moves to.89, it is safe to say the player's true peak for that rating is 89.

Oddly enough I think I have a player to argue your last point. Johan Butcher has a VsL of 100. Since HBD started I have never heard of a owner even mentioning of a player with 100 for a rating. Yet I used the medical trick and broke him last year and at the beginning of this season, here we are.

Although it is possible but unlikely that Johan's ceiling is 100 I think maybe every time he got injured his potential for a ceiling bumped up a bit. So starting at 80 as his ceiling 5 seasons ago if he got injured it bumped to 85. So if I got him to 86 then it would turn back a point. Then next season he gets injured and the ceiling bumps to 90 and on and on. (I had him at 101 for VsL at one point in time)

Holy crap!! Is that right? I was always under the impression that players would never go beyond their peak due to the medical trick. Some folks on this board got angry that their players reverted back to lower ratings after using the medical trick. I always correlated that to the player simply not being able to pass his peak ratings. But if this player hit 86, reverted back to 85, then continually improved his peak through the medical trick with each new injury, then that changes my entire outlook on the medical trick. I wonder if it is based on age??? At this age, the peak is this, but at this age, the peak is this???

I guess I need to take back my comments about the medical trick NOT creating Greek Gods.

Posted by hockey1984 on 3/25/2021 6:59:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tlowster on 3/24/2021 10:29:00 PM (view original):
Since the original scout's projections are fuzzy anywhere between 10-15 points even with a maxed scouting budget, it is difficult to know the player's true peak potential. The best way to project a player is to try to find a similar player with the same background and see how he progressed. Assuming the makeup rating is close, the prospect will likely progress in a similar fashion assuming he gets normal playing time and the coaches aren't the worst in league.

An exception to this is the medical trick. If you have a guy who hits 90 in a coacable rating after a medical recovery, but then the very next regular development cycle the rating moves to.89, it is safe to say the player's true peak for that rating is 89.

Oddly enough I think I have a player to argue your last point. Johan Butcher has a VsL of 100. Since HBD started I have never heard of a owner even mentioning of a player with 100 for a rating. Yet I used the medical trick and broke him last year and at the beginning of this season, here we are.

Although it is possible but unlikely that Johan's ceiling is 100 I think maybe every time he got injured his potential for a ceiling bumped up a bit. So starting at 80 as his ceiling 5 seasons ago if he got injured it bumped to 85. So if I got him to 86 then it would turn back a point. Then next season he gets injured and the ceiling bumps to 90 and on and on. (I had him at 101 for VsL at one point in time)

What's funny is that for a guy that was an 85 split guy five seasons ago, he doesn't have a massive performance jump after the huge injury recovery bumps. It seems quite modest.