Delaware State made the Final 4 for the second year in a row and dropped from A+ to A. I wonder if it would be possible to lower the strength of Baseline. I am not complaining because I understood what I was getting into when I signed up. But from a realism point of view, Gillispie rated the Five and 10 year Dynasties across ALL worlds, and Delaware State was the #1 Dynasty in all of HD for all worlds for both periods, so if there ever was a program deserving of A+ prestige it would be this one. In the last six years we have had two Final Four appearances, Two Championships, and Elite 8 and a 2nd round NT.

I still like the idea of some baseline. But I think it is too strong. For example in one world there is one of the top teams which has an A+ baseline and is rated currently at B+. It has a less than stellar success record. They went from C+ to B with a first round PI appearance. and from B to B+ with a 2nd round PI. In 22 years they have 7 NT appearances with six of those being first round exits. There are also 7 PI bids (no championships), and 8 years with no post season. Yet, they are still at B+, and I suspect if they made one final 4 they would be at A+ or at least A.

I really never expected to get to A+ when I signed up for Delaware State, but my big thing with HD is I like things to be as realistic as possible. So, I wanted to see if others felt the same way or if they liked baseline prestige the way it is?

These are my observations more as a fan than from an elite coach perspective (which I ain't there yet). The tricky part of this game is how do you compare reality of the real world to reality in a given world. Butler for example is a D level school in Horizon but over the years I would argue in real life they are higher. So my question would be do you base prestige of a school based strictly on WIS performance (aka Delaware State example) or do you base it on real life (where big 6 schools should really never be below a C prestige and lose battles to most d2 schools). I would say this is a game - let the game define the prestige because if not then whats the point of playing it?

I hear what you're saying chapel, but I'm not sure what the fix would be. If they made it easier for Delaware State to maintain an A+ prestige, then it would also be easier for the A+ baseline teams. I guess success (or lack thereof) would need to weigh more on the prestige calculation? Would more movement along the baseline scale be necessary? For example, I like to think of prestige as a rubber band tied to your baseline prestige. The farther you get away from the base, the more difficult it becomes to move. Should the rubber band be loosened up a bit in order to allow more movement? Should the prestige calculation use the past 10 seasons instead of 4, so that Delaware State could afford to have a down season without a major prestige hit?

I feel like there are a lot of adjustments that could be made, but it might take some time to figure the exact adjustments that make sense and keep the game balanced.

Posted by mlitney on 4/20/2021 11:36:00 AM (view original):
I hear what you're saying chapel, but I'm not sure what the fix would be. If they made it easier for Delaware State to maintain an A+ prestige, then it would also be easier for the A+ baseline teams. I guess success (or lack thereof) would need to weigh more on the prestige calculation? Would more movement along the baseline scale be necessary? For example, I like to think of prestige as a rubber band tied to your baseline prestige. The farther you get away from the base, the more difficult it becomes to move. Should the rubber band be loosened up a bit in order to allow more movement? Should the prestige calculation use the past 10 seasons instead of 4, so that Delaware State could afford to have a down season without a major prestige hit?

I feel like there are a lot of adjustments that could be made, but it might take some time to figure the exact adjustments that make sense and keep the game balanced.

Prefacing that I’m in the MEAC with chapel where we are looking to become all-time great HD conference so I may be bias (but I don’t think I am?)

For the point about “it would make it easier for A+ baselines”, not necessarily. Depends on how baseline is calculated in but I’m under the impression baseline is just a multiplier in a formula with each team’s multiplier being based on their baseline grade. If that’s the case, they could just slightly increase the lower baselines’ multiplier number.

I actually read this post initially thinking “Meh, its unfair but that’s the game, it’s one of the challenges of trying to convert the worst D1 conference into the best”. But one of the all time great teams is an A. That just feels wrong.

I still wouldn’t worry too much about it if it wasn’t for the recent large influx of D1 coaches (and big 6 jobs in particular). I’m a huge fan of the popularity boom but recruiting this past cycle was a bloodbath that will only get worse. The lack of viable recruit depth and increase in human coach depth is going to make success even harder to sustain (good thing IMO). But when someone like Delaware State has a “bad” season by only making the NT and Rutgers (I’m just guessing they’re a lower B6 baseline in his area) makes the S16 that season... suddenly, they’re on even playing ground. That’s pretty tough to justify.

I will offer a contrarian POV here. We all know the rules going in. We all know the baseline prestige, as developed 12 or so years ago, no longer tracks with real life. The conference membership does not track with real life. It never really did - looking at you Fresno State and Hawaii. But that's the way the game was designed, and that structure has guided most of us through our HD careers, knowing the challenges of taking over a D- school with a D baseline prestige.

I congratulate chap for his work with Delaware State. In my opinion, outside of a log streak of championships, it is the biggest accomplishment you can achieve in HD. It makes us all marvel when someone takes Sacramento State, or Montana, or Vermont (three times) and wins it all. I was fortunate to do it myself way back in the day at UNC Wilmington.

But when I see someone reach this goal, I can only think of what President Kennedy said in a speech about the nascent space program at Rice University in 1962: "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win".

Easing the current effect of baseline prestige makes that challenge less so, and deprives the next chapelhilline from great sense of satisfaction of taking Prairie View to a a national championship.

That’s definitely an interesting thought with a lot of merit also.

Posted by cbriese on 4/20/2021 6:25:00 PM (view original):
I will offer a contrarian POV here. We all know the rules going in. We all know the baseline prestige, as developed 12 or so years ago, no longer tracks with real life. The conference membership does not track with real life. It never really did - looking at you Fresno State and Hawaii. But that's the way the game was designed, and that structure has guided most of us through our HD careers, knowing the challenges of taking over a D- school with a D baseline prestige.

I congratulate chap for his work with Delaware State. In my opinion, outside of a log streak of championships, it is the biggest accomplishment you can achieve in HD. It makes us all marvel when someone takes Sacramento State, or Montana, or Vermont (three times) and wins it all. I was fortunate to do it myself way back in the day at UNC Wilmington.

But when I see someone reach this goal, I can only think of what President Kennedy said in a speech about the nascent space program at Rice University in 1962: "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win".

Easing the current effect of baseline prestige makes that challenge less so, and deprives the next chapelhilline from great sense of satisfaction of taking Prairie View to a a national championship.

I love your point, cbriese. It explains my initial thoughts of seeing this post way better than I had explained. As an avid video game fan, particularly online games like battle royals, I hate the complaint of “this item/setting is too strong/weak”. You have the same rules, same cards, same table set as everyone else. If you continue to choose less optimal setups, that’s on you.

However, I do believe the influx of new coaches may result in current baselines becoming too unbearable. I’d say hold for now as we need to see larger sample sizes, we need to see if more coaches continue to come in, we need to see how further updates affect the game, etc.

If you truly want this game to be as realistic as possible, then you must realize that Delaware St in real life could NEVER, I repeat NEVER be an A+ school, or win a National Championship. The best they could ever hope for, would be to win the MEAC, and get the automatic bid to the tourney, where they would lose big to #1 seed Kentucky in the 1st round... So the highest prestige they could ever hope to achieve in reality would be a C-. Therefore I think it is MORE THAN FAIR of WIS to allow the Hornets to reach A status in this game, because again they would NEVER win a NC, unless all of the Dupont's in Delaware, and Joe Biden too, left all of their monies to the Del St Athletic Dept., which ain't gonna happen.

At this point in time I think that Delaware St. should join the Pac12, problem solved+/-

I’m with chapel, and there’s an obvious, real world analogy.

Chapel has made Del State the HD Gonzaga.

25 yrs ago, it would’ve been perfectly logical and apparently 100% true to say neither Gonzaga nor any WCC team would do what Gonzaga has done, until... Gonzaga did it.

Chapel = Mark Few
Del. State = Gonzaga

I agree that some level of either the school’s &/or the coach’s career total success &/or level of success over the most recent 5 or 10 seasons should be able to move the baseline prestige for that team in that world up (or down).