So, may I tap the knowledge of EE probability experts? I've got a junior who is at 45 on the Big Board and on the fence. Rating total 796

Soph season, I held back his development a little to be sure he came back for junior year.

The decision to be made is whether to waste his practice minutes - maybe he slides to 55 ish on the Big Board or just go ahead and optimize his improvement. If so, he probably ends up around 40 on the Big Board

I'm thinking that he has about a 66% chance of going EE. I am thinking about mis-using his practice minutes in the hope of reducing those odds.

But others have studied EE odds more carefully - what do folks think the odds are?

here is the guy

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4789345

I need to figure out to use that model, but even the discussion in that video is hugely helpful - confirms a lot of what I had thought and sharpened it!!

I don’t really worry about tools or actual probability numbers. I do consider that the closer he gets to projected first round, the more likely he is to bump to likely going; which means if he’s going to be under 40, I am likely to just go for it (assuming he has some growth in important areas). I ALWAYS want to avoid ending up with juniors between 30-40. If I don’t think I can keep (or drop) him below 40, I’ll go all in.

Also, if I’ve got his replacement already on my team, I’m less likely to sweat it in any case. Teams do tend to finish the season better when their juniors are fully developed, so I have to figure holding them back does usually cost something, even if it’s hard to see.

Pardon my ignorance, but what’s EE?

Posted by strikeout26 on 7/4/2021 11:33:00 AM (view original):
Pardon my ignorance, but what’s EE?

early entry. d1 players who leave before senior year for the draft

Gotcha. That makes sense. Thanks.

Posted by fd343ny on 7/3/2021 2:37:00 PM (view original):
So, may I tap the knowledge of EE probability experts? I've got a junior who is at 45 on the Big Board and on the fence. Rating total 796

Soph season, I held back his development a little to be sure he came back for junior year.

The decision to be made is whether to waste his practice minutes - maybe he slides to 55 ish on the Big Board or just go ahead and optimize his improvement. If so, he probably ends up around 40 on the Big Board

I'm thinking that he has about a 66% chance of going EE. I am thinking about mis-using his practice minutes in the hope of reducing those odds.

But others have studied EE odds more carefully - what do folks think the odds are?

Based upon the data I have, 40-50 Jr on big board is about 43% chance of leaving while 50-60 is about 35%. So dropping him helps a little but it's not crazy significant.

While we're on the subject, I recall reading somewhere that you can't lose any EE's if you already have 6 open roster spots for the next season. Is that the case? Asking for a friend who has 2 underclassmen in the 50-60 range.

Posted by haagtrain on 7/6/2021 4:20:00 PM (view original):
While we're on the subject, I recall reading somewhere that you can't lose any EE's if you already have 6 open roster spots for the next season. Is that the case? Asking for a friend who has 2 underclassmen in the 50-60 range.

they have to be graduating seniors. Walkons and 1 year transfers don't count.

thanks for the info above in the thread - by wasting his practice minutes, I was able to drop him to 72 on the Big Board and he has decided to come back for his senior year!