Charles Adkins, SO 91 on big board. 9.1% chance to leave early.. he left.

David Rockwell, JR 113 on big board. 3.5% chance to leave early.. he also left.

Walter Parks, JR 115 on big board. 1.7% chance to leave early... he also left.

James Montz, SO 124 on big board. 0.05% chance to leave early (1 in 2000)... he also left.

Doing a little math, I would expect that type of event (EE leaving with 1 in 2000 or less chance on draft night) to happen about once every 4 years, so everyone make sure to send your condolences to poor kropduster who very well likely might have experienced the worst EE of the Biden Administration.

What did their teams do in the post season?

Apparently not many seniors, huh?

Once it gets down there, the odds are significantly higher, of course. If you have a Jr at 115, your protection is that the draft will almost certainly be done by the time it gets to you. But if it gets to you, your guy is going to make a similar kind of calculation as other juniors at the bottom of the draft.

Posted by cubcub113 on 8/18/2021 3:03:00 PM (view original):
Charles Adkins, SO 91 on big board. 9.1% chance to leave early.. he left.

David Rockwell, JR 113 on big board. 3.5% chance to leave early.. he also left.

Walter Parks, JR 115 on big board. 1.7% chance to leave early... he also left.

James Montz, SO 124 on big board. 0.05% chance to leave early (1 in 2000)... he also left.

Doing a little math, I would expect that type of event (EE leaving with 1 in 2000 or less chance on draft night) to happen about once every 4 years, so everyone make sure to send your condolences to poor kropduster who very well likely might have experienced the worst EE of the Biden Administration.

I am completely dumbfounded by the Montz decision. Worst luck ever.

How do you know the exact percentage likelihoods of a player on the big board leaving?

Posted by mullycj on 8/18/2021 3:34:00 PM (view original):
What did their teams do in the post season?

Montz' team (#22 ranked) lost in the second round.

Posted by dw172300 on 8/19/2021 2:34:00 PM (view original):
How do you know the exact percentage likelihoods of a player on the big board leaving?

No one knows the likelihood of a player leaving at a certain position, in terms of programming, ie the #81 ranked, non-graduating player on the Big Board’s coding. Some folks collect data of who actually leaves and from where. When that’s presented here without context, it could be a little misleading if you don’t know what you’re looking at. It’s not as if the #115 guy on the big board is coded with a 2% probability to leave. His probability to declare, if the draft gets down to him, is roughly the same as the #70 guy, and probably not all that different from the #45 guy (assuming they’re all in the same class). It likely moves down a *little bit* as you go down the board within each category (juniors, on the fence, for example) but we don’t know for sure. And if it does move within that category, it’s a very little bit. Where you see the big changes are on the cusps, all players on the cusp of the first round, sophs on the cusp of ~lottery level. When players say no and stay for the next season, I think we should assume the system moves players up, such that if 8 players projected in the first round happen to say no, suddenly the #36 guy is getting drafted as a first rounder, rather than the second rounder where his listed projection lies. My suspicion - and this is not confirmed, but I think it makes sense based on data ive seen anyway - is that those players are then treated as 1st rounders in the draft, and make a decision as “likely going” rather than “on the fence”. That kind of nuance isn’t captured in raw data, in the way we see the #115 guy as having a 2% chance to leave, when probably the better way to look at it is that *if the draft goes to 115* he will have something like a 35-40% chance of leaving.

Posted by shoe3 on 8/18/2021 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Apparently not many seniors, huh?

Once it gets down there, the odds are significantly higher, of course. If you have a Jr at 115, your protection is that the draft will almost certainly be done by the time it gets to you. But if it gets to you, your guy is going to make a similar kind of calculation as other juniors at the bottom of the draft.

my percentages consider the age of the players before them

there were plenty of seniors, the juniors and sophomores just didnt leave

Posted by shoe3 on 8/19/2021 7:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dw172300 on 8/19/2021 2:34:00 PM (view original):
How do you know the exact percentage likelihoods of a player on the big board leaving?

No one knows the likelihood of a player leaving at a certain position, in terms of programming, ie the #81 ranked, non-graduating player on the Big Board’s coding. Some folks collect data of who actually leaves and from where. When that’s presented here without context, it could be a little misleading if you don’t know what you’re looking at. It’s not as if the #115 guy on the big board is coded with a 2% probability to leave. His probability to declare, if the draft gets down to him, is roughly the same as the #70 guy, and probably not all that different from the #45 guy (assuming they’re all in the same class). It likely moves down a *little bit* as you go down the board within each category (juniors, on the fence, for example) but we don’t know for sure. And if it does move within that category, it’s a very little bit. Where you see the big changes are on the cusps, all players on the cusp of the first round, sophs on the cusp of ~lottery level. When players say no and stay for the next season, I think we should assume the system moves players up, such that if 8 players projected in the first round happen to say no, suddenly the #36 guy is getting drafted as a first rounder, rather than the second rounder where his listed projection lies. My suspicion - and this is not confirmed, but I think it makes sense based on data ive seen anyway - is that those players are then treated as 1st rounders in the draft, and make a decision as “likely going” rather than “on the fence”. That kind of nuance isn’t captured in raw data, in the way we see the #115 guy as having a 2% chance to leave, when probably the better way to look at it is that *if the draft goes to 115* he will have something like a 35-40% chance of leaving.

This is explained very well. Montez actually had an 8.8% chance to leave when it got to him, but there was only a .6% chance the draft got to him. That's where we get 0.05% from

Posted by mullycj on 8/18/2021 3:34:00 PM (view original):
What did their teams do in the post season?

I used the final updated big board for this, after the postseason/AA results are included.

Posted by cubcub113 on 8/20/2021 12:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 8/18/2021 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Apparently not many seniors, huh?

Once it gets down there, the odds are significantly higher, of course. If you have a Jr at 115, your protection is that the draft will almost certainly be done by the time it gets to you. But if it gets to you, your guy is going to make a similar kind of calculation as other juniors at the bottom of the draft.

my percentages consider the age of the players before them

there were plenty of seniors, the juniors and sophomores just didnt leave

How do you account for the age of the players before and work that into the %? I’m not saying you can’t do it, just wondering how you’ve chosen to do it.

I want 30 or so seniors in the top 90 to feel pretty safe about my guys down there. If there are fewer, that’s when I see problems, especially when it’s down around 20. It might have been an abnormal year for players staying too, sure. But a few more seniors, like particularly between 80-100, that would have helped a lot.

Posted by shoe3 on 8/20/2021 2:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 8/20/2021 12:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 8/18/2021 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Apparently not many seniors, huh?

Once it gets down there, the odds are significantly higher, of course. If you have a Jr at 115, your protection is that the draft will almost certainly be done by the time it gets to you. But if it gets to you, your guy is going to make a similar kind of calculation as other juniors at the bottom of the draft.

my percentages consider the age of the players before them

there were plenty of seniors, the juniors and sophomores just didnt leave

How do you account for the age of the players before and work that into the %? I’m not saying you can’t do it, just wondering how you’ve chosen to do it.

I want 30 or so seniors in the top 90 to feel pretty safe about my guys down there. If there are fewer, that’s when I see problems, especially when it’s down around 20. It might have been an abnormal year for players staying too, sure. But a few more seniors, like particularly between 80-100, that would have helped a lot.

I run a monte carlo simulation in my big board spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18nFVaen7of4a3eOftUYXtBtV7sgvVPnIdtnQVWqGp4w/edit?usp=sharing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mtj_wx6etjY&ab_channel=HDcubcub113

And you're dead right shoe. I looked a few other big board and generally the chance a #124 SO goes is literally 0. So the 0.05% Montz had to leave is actually quite high

Ok thanks, was wondering if you were doing something specific.

I counted 24 seniors in the top 90, and that’s a little light. I’d have been nervous with guys down there, for sure. Probably not 124 though, that’s really low. It is possible that he moved up a little in the *final version* and jumped ahead of some guys (likely, considering there are quite a few seniors down in that part of the draft which theoretically should have protected him, had the Big Board held) but it’s still a far outlier, I’d guess.

ETA, if I’m looking at your chart right, and counting correctly, looks like Montz jumps ahead of 2 seniors, Nolan and Wolfe, either of whom otherwise would have been the final pick of the draft, as both are listed ahead of him.