I've been playing this game for a long time and I think I've figured out most of it, but one thing that's always fooled me and my formulas is the 2 pitch RP.

When a pitcher has P1/P2/P3 of 85/82/0, it seems logical that he would do better than a P1/P2/P3 of 85/72/58, but it seems like the 2 pitch RP's are super inconsistent and are just as likely to have good season or a season that is total garbage like This Freaking Guy Right Here

How do you all evaluate 2 pitch RPs vs. 3 pitch RPs?

For these guys I just have slightly higher standards on what I consider good. I want guys with 2 pitches to have 80's or better across ratings to consider them bona fide studs I can rely on. Below that it seems they do get fairly inconsistent. Your guy is also a lefty which works against him. For lefties I want even higher ratings cause they get knocked around more than righties simply because there's more right handed hitters in the game.

Also, if you think that's bad, check out S55 of this guy. He's gotten much more consistent over the seasons (after I traded him of course, lol) but he should still have something like a 2.50 career ERA rather than his 3.61 he's currently sporting.

IMO when you think about it, there has to be huge variance in the performance of short-use RPs, simply based on schedule, opponent, and changes in the opponent. We have very little real control over when an RP enters a game, which teams he faces, and which parts of the opponent lineups he faces.

Think about the three best teams in your league, and the heart of their lineups. What if your RP Mr. X faces those three or four batters every time out?
Now think about the worst three teams, and their 7-8-9 hitters. Say Mr. X never faces anyone other than those?

Agree with damag -- variance is huge in short outing relief pitchers.

Also, a short reliever like the one referenced above will likely have high variances not just season to season, but from season start to all star break to season end. One bad outing on a guy that pitches 15-25 pitches per appearance can skew his peripherals.

Also, if the rest of the staff is only mediocre, he could be coming in, getting blown up, then still leaving the game with guys on base more often than other pitchers. If the next guy comes in and gives up one hit, the guy might get charged additional run(s).

Posted by brianplath on 5/22/2023 7:11:00 PM (view original):
For these guys I just have slightly higher standards on what I consider good. I want guys with 2 pitches to have 80's or better across ratings to consider them bona fide studs I can rely on. Below that it seems they do get fairly inconsistent. Your guy is also a lefty which works against him. For lefties I want even higher ratings cause they get knocked around more than righties simply because there's more right handed hitters in the game.

Also, if you think that's bad, check out S55 of this guy. He's gotten much more consistent over the seasons (after I traded him of course, lol) but he should still have something like a 2.50 career ERA rather than his 3.61 he's currently sporting.

I have a really different regression formula from most people for pitching; my model values pitches much lower and GB/FB much higher than most people do. But pitching about 1/3 of his innings in MAD (AL) and 2/3 in SCO (NL), I get him at about 3.40. So the 3.60 doesn't surprise me all that much.

Here's my take on this guy. He's a lefty and his vR is weaker. With the majority of players hitting right handed he will struggle more. His temper is a little higher than I like for a SuA or closer. He's more of a groundball pitcher so that's good. But you seem to have his pitch count set higher than I would. When he throws 20 pitches or more he gets roughed up more often. I'd probably use him as a SuB unless he's on a run, but I wouldn't count on him as a Cl unless I had no other better options.