I've got a 19 year old prospect with the following hitting ratings:

                                       Contact-Power-vLH-vRH-Eye
Current:                              65         80     47    40    57  
Projected:                          100       100    71    61    79


His current makeup is a 38, with a projection of 40.   How close to those projections is realistic? 

That's not good.  Hopefully you have good coaching.  Maybe look back through your franchise history and compare him to other players with low make up

He's going to wind up around: 72-85-59-52-68 if you have good coaching and promote him properly. I'd trade him now to someone who is awestruck by his projections.

Update: on rereading this I realized my math was off...that'll teach me not to do this on a phone....my predictions: 82-85-60-52--69. Basically, I took the delta between current and projected and then figure with a makeup that low that he's going to do somewhere between 40%-60%. I just haven't seen power numbers go up that much. Whether I would consider him a real prospect would depend on his position. If he's strong defensively than he's got a shot at being a MLer if he's a 1B/LF/RF then he's a AAAA.

I went back through my old team and found this guy. He may give you hope of some solid ratings increases. It's not my team anymore so I have no idea why he's at High A now. Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Santiago Carreras. I always spent on coaching at the levels where I knew my prospects would be that season so he had good coaching.

 

 

Really? Make-up matters that much?

Don't listen to the other responses.  We do not have enough information to answer your question (or predict his exact final ratings).  Make-up matters.  However, it mostly effects how fast a player gets to their final ratings and how early in their career they start to decline.  A 19 year old with make-up in high 30's can improve 20-30ish across the board.

My impression is that what New said is correct, except I would count on improvements around 15ish for a 19 year-old (more for a high-schooler).

I have a relatively similar prospect, albeit with a bit better makeup, who I picked up in last season's draft.  I expect their development patterns also to be similar, so maybe you can get an idea what to expect from this guy.  He just finished his first season with solid High-A coaches.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4510734


edit: btw, my 20mil college scouting (at the time) put his projections at 84/99/67/56/64, for what it's worth.

Posted by new on 3/6/2012 3:43:00 PM (view original):
Don't listen to the other responses.  We do not have enough information to answer your question (or predict his exact final ratings).  Make-up matters.  However, it mostly effects how fast a player gets to their final ratings and how early in their career they start to decline.  A 19 year old with make-up in high 30's can improve 20-30ish across the board.

Agree with all of this except the "20-30ish" part.  That's too high...  I'll buy 15-25ish for a 19 year old.  30 is the very high end of development, never seen it but I've seen 28-29, and I would only expect that in 18 year olds.

Posted by new on 3/6/2012 3:43:00 PM (view original):
Don't listen to the other responses.  We do not have enough information to answer your question (or predict his exact final ratings).  Make-up matters.  However, it mostly effects how fast a player gets to their final ratings and how early in their career they start to decline.  A 19 year old with make-up in high 30's can improve 20-30ish across the board.

20 to 30? Show me a player below 40 makeup that increased 30 pts?

I wasn't pulling my numbers out of a hat...and maybe they're a bit conservative, but makeup does effect what percentage of the difference between current and projected they're going to reach. Of course, coaching, and playing time also have an effect. There are also some ratings areas that never increase that much over time while others are much more likely to go up. I can't recall any players ever increasing 20 points in power.

From another thread:

I have a first rounder with 24 make-up whose contact improved 28 pts and his vsL went up 21 pts, not including whatever increases he saw the year he was drafted. I suspect he'll decline quickly but still be good through age 32-33. So I think your guy will be fine.

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Babe Quinlan