Smith
Big East Conference Semi Final
Syracuse vs Georgetown

Syracuse Shoots 15-16 from 3 vs Georgetown's -5.

best whining voice: 'but the -5 is MAGICAL'

must be a glitch.

just raises the average, to make up for all those 2-16 games - LOL

This is a hard issue for those who want gameplanning to always work, since statistically in any one game, the diff between 34% and 40% 3 point shooting is only 1 made shot out of 16, intuitively it is not what guys want to see, but the numbers are what the numbers are.

So in this case, vs a zero defense, the team still would have shot 14-16, and vs a +5, the team would have shot 13-16, making a bunch of assumptions and cutting corners, but I think that is the math behind it, although if you did sim it again, you would seldom get those sorts of results.

I would not be suprised if the new engine release 'over corrects' these sorts of issues, and that will not be a good thing.

I'm amazed that someone played a -5 in a D1 final.

-5 IS Magical in DIII, trust me!

Quote: Originally posted by oldresorter on 7/06/2009just raises the average, to make up for all those 2-16 games - LOLThis is a hard issue for those who want gameplanning to always work, since statistically in any one game, the diff between 34% and 40% 3 point shooting is only 1 made shot out of 16, intuitively it is not what guys want to see, but the numbers are what the numbers are.So in this case, vs a zero defense, the team still would have shot 14-16, and vs a +5, the team would have shot 13-16, making a bunch of assumptions and cutting corners, but I think that is the math behind it, although if you did sim it again, you would seldom get those sorts of results.I would not be suprised if the new engine release 'over corrects' these sorts of issues, and that will not be a good thing.

i personally feel the 34% vs 40% stat is highly misleading. 3pta should be (and is, in my experience) one of the biggest effects of the +/- setting, just looking at 3pt% is only part of the picture. so, those 14-16 and 13-16 figures are pretty far off, IMO.

I believe what OR is saying is that if he had played a +5... the result in this very extreme example could have been 13-16.. or 81% against a +5.

He was just trying to show how extreme the result was... no matter what the defense played.

Most of us believe it would be next to impossible to have that result against a +5... but expect it nearly every time we see a -5.

gil = put about as many disclaimers on my statement as possible, 13-16 or 14-16 is simply a math exercise interpolating from the 15-16, using the only data we have ever been given by CS (34% vs 40%). you can make up whatever you want in terms of why it is wrong - I could come up withj a doz myself.

Once I went 34-1 in d2, shot 45% from 3pt land for the year, only loss to -5, shot 1-18 that day. never changed a setting the entire year, beat -5 3-4 times in the NT - same settings - settings may have less affect than you might be giving them - just a thought.

Quote: Originally posted by oldresorter on 7/06/2009gil = put about as many disclaimers on my statement as possible, 13-16 or 14-16 is simply a math exercise interpolating from the 15-16, using the only data we have ever been given by CS (34% vs 40%).  you can make up whatever you want in terms of why it is wrong - I could come up withj a doz myself.Once I went 34-1 in d2, shot 45% from 3pt land for the year, only loss to -5, shot 1-18 that day. never changed a setting the entire year, beat -5 3-4 times in the NT - same settings - settings may have less affect than you might be giving them - just a thought.

sorry, i was not trying to criticize your use of that stat. but the stat itself. CS did not mention the change in 3pta in the study where they gave the 34%/40% figure, and it seems a lot of people take it to mean the -5 has little effect on 3 pointers (not you, just people in general). i just think the study was very misleading.

whether the settings have a big effect or not, is not what i was trying to claim. i think the effect of the +/- setting on 3pta is bigger than on 3pt%, though. guess that was not very clear :(

http://whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=4686005

I play the -5 vs a team that attempts nothing but 2s and he still shoots like crazy from inside.

-5 FAIL!!!

Here's a nice -5 success. Northwestern is undefeated in conference against teams that don't play the -5, 0-2 against the surprise -5 defense.



http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=5494267

I'm not sure anyone was saying it worked it's magic every time, tanner, just that it seems to give more uneven results than others. It's not just the 3's, but the fouls, other non-paint scoring and seeming to ignore base ratings inside on the upsets.

Take Michigan in that last game, for example. Only seven fouls, holds Northwestern to a shooting percentage fully 10 percent worse than Michigan's season average for opponents, and two guards who would seem to shine against a -5 defense turn the ball over 11 times combined and shoot far below their season percentages from the floor. That is a weird result.