...all things being equal, a player with these ratings to be 5 of 31 (16.1%) from 3-point range, being set to 0 and -1? D3

SG Howard Myler Sophomore, B+ IQ offense

ATH: 59
Speed 55
Perimeter 61
Ball Handling 57
Passing 51
Work Ethic 67
Stamina 65

He's still improving in all key categories.

He went 13-42 (31%) last year set to -1 all season which is still pretty low.

Happens all the time in HD.

It does not surprise me. I have a guy on my Caldwell team who ratings wise is a beast, but will never have a season over 44% shooting as a big. While looking at just ratings some stats may surprise some, but usually there is always a reason behind it.

Even though I hate it when people mention "small sample size", 31 shots really isn't very many. I don't think I'd panic quite yet. Mniven is right though, stuff like this happens ALL the time in HD.

yes and the other players involved matter, pg def etc

Quote: Originally posted by furry_nipps on 9/23/2009It does not surprise me. I have a guy on my Caldwell team who ratings wise is a beast, but will never have a season over 44% shooting as a big. While looking at just ratings some stats may surprise some, but usually there is always a reason behind it.

In reference to the other thread, do you (furry_nipps personally) think I should have looked at his high school 3pt% to tell me more about what to expect?

Now that I look at your team, you're shooting only 28% as a team from downtown, so there is probably something more to it than simply this one guy not getting good rolls of the SIM dice.

Your team passing skills are definitely low, even for DIII, so that's probably playing a role. You've also had a top 5 SOS, so you've probably played some decent defenses.

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Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 9/23/2009

Quote: Originally posted by furry_nipps on 9/23/2009 It does not surprise me. I have a guy on my Caldwell team who ratings wise is a beast, but will never have a season over 44% shooting as a big. While looking at just ratings some stats may surprise some, but usually there is always a reason behind it.

In reference to the other thread, do you (furry_nipps personally) think I should have looked at his high school 3pt% to tell me more about what to expect?

The High School percentages don't really mean much. They are basically window dressing. That being said, I do tend to look at the difference between their FG% and 3pt%. If its close or if 3pt is better, you can reasonably expect them to shoot the 3 well for you. But its all a crapshoot in HD.

Quote: Originally Posted By fencer024 on 9/23/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 9/23/2009

Quote: Originally posted by furry_nipps on 9/23/2009
It does not surprise me. I have a guy on my Caldwell team who ratings wise is a beast, but will never have a season over 44% shooting as a big. While looking at just ratings some stats may surprise some, but usually there is always a reason behind it.

In reference to the other thread, do you (furry_nipps personally) think I should have looked at his high school 3pt% to tell me more about what to expect?

The High School percentages don't really mean much. They are basically window dressing. That being said, I do tend to look at the difference between their FG% and 3pt%. If its close or if 3pt is better, you can reasonably expect them to shoot the 3 well for you. But its all a crapshoot in HD.

I guess I've always been confused by this argument. If that's the case, then why do the same people (and this happens in every world) win all the time? If ratings and gameplanning and team structure are that irrelevant, shouldn't there be more parity at the top?

Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 9/23/2009...all things being equal, a player with these ratings to be 5 of 31 (16.1%) from 3-point range, being set to 0 and -1? D3

SG Howard Myler Sophomore, B+ IQ offense

ATH: 59
Speed 55
Perimeter 61
Ball Handling 57
Passing 51
Work Ethic 67
Stamina 65

He's still improving in all key categories.

He went 13-42 (31%) last year set to -1 all season which is still pretty low.

31 and 42 3 point attempts is a pretty small sample size.

As an example of the 3pt% in HS meaning anything, I can offer these examples.

Robert Palmer DI (#32 SG coming in)
HS FG% 35.5 FG3% 38.7
21 games into his Senior year
career FG% 47.6 FG3% 42.0

Barry Allen DI (#95 SF coming in)
HS FG% 47.9 FG3% 34.3
21 games in SR year
career FG% 47.8 FG3% 40.0

Alvin Hale DI (#70 SG coming in)
HS FG% 35.1 FG3% 43.9
after SR year
career FG% 43.6 FG3% 41.6

With Palmer and Hale, I expected them to be good 3pt shooters because they shot better in HS. Neither really disappointed. They didn't shoot the 3 better overall, but they weren't too far off the rest of their FG%.

Allen wasn't expected to be much of a 3pt threat, but he is shooting 40% for his career thanks to high potential in per.

Now on the flip side, here's another that proves my point.

Leonard Carey DI (#57 PG coming in)
HS FG% 60.5 FG3% 36.6
Career FG% 51.7 FG3% 31.7

I didn't expect Carey to be that great at the 3 based on his HS stats, and he wasn't. 31.7 is okay, but 20% lower than the rest of his shots.

You might be able to get an idea of how they'll turn out, but you never can tell for sure. I thought this guy would be a great 3pt threat, but he never was.

David Gearheart DI (#5 PG coming in)
HS FG% 34.0 FG3% 43.3
Career FG% 45.6 FG3% 35.4

In most of those cases you can use the comparison between HS FG and FG3 %s to get some type of idea how they'll turn out, but the last one busts the theory.

Yeah, HS stats do mean stuff and have always been something I used to get an edge - glad to see other coaches caught on to it as well. It is not the tell all as ratings are important, but you get a range of what they can and can't do and they tend to play around there HS stats. SOS, teams you play, distro etc all effect it. Whenever I have something I wonder about I often look back at his HS stats and it usually makes sense.

Quote: Originally posted by zhawks on 9/23/2009

Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 9/23/2009...all things being equal, a player with these ratings to be 5 of 31 (16.1%) from 3-point range, being set to 0 and -1? D3
SG Howard Myler Sophomore, B+ IQ offense

ATH: 59
Speed 55
Perimeter 61
Ball Handling 57
Passing 51
Work Ethic 67
Stamina 65

He's still improving in all key categories.

He went 13-42 (31%) last year set to -1 all season which is still pretty low.

31 and 42 3 point attempts is a pretty small sample size.

Actually, 73 attempts (79 now, he went 1-6 last night even at -1 against a weaker defender) is not too small sample size. Central limit theorem suggests that as N-->infinity that a player's average won't deviate by much from his true average.
Even at just 79 attempts the odds of him actually being a better shooter than his % suggests become quite low. The odds of him suddenly "waking up" and shooting 35% are really small (haven't worked out the actual calculation yet).