i had a similar thing happen.
although the kid who early for me did have promise, he was a freshman! and he was a backup to the starting SF who was faster, more athletic, better rebounder, better shooter, etc.
the starter (who stayed and will be a senior next season) was our leading scorer, allconf honmen, etc.
seemed very strange the frosh would leave. i can only surmise that there is some type of formula that decides which players will leave early. but, whereas I used to think that the formula was tallied up and any who scored over 200 (for example) would go pro, it now seems to me that after each season all players are rated on some variety of factors and THEN, they are assigned some percent chance of leaving.
So, In my example above.. it might be that my senior SF had a 74% chance of going EE. whereas my freshman might have had a really low chance, for instance 14%.
kinda like theNBA lottery. my frosh might get 14 balls in the hopper and my SF74 balls. and then they select 25 balls or whatever and, although my frosh seems like an illogical choice over the senior, he happens to get picked.
maybe?