Chaminade beat Virginia. But stop the madness! Where is the impact of input? Load up for rebounding, have superior rebounders, get smoked on the offensive AND defensive boards. A+ HCA? OK, let's start a losing streak at home against inferior teams. 19pt favorite at home? Then let's shoot under 35%, miss every 3, and lose by 13! (a fluke? Then what about the last game? You know THAT home loss.)

What if I had loaded up for a rebounding advantage? Would that have helped? (Oh, wait. I did.) What if I had targeted their weaker defenders and put my better shooters up against them and gave them some good distro? Might they have shot better than 30%? (Oh, wait. I did.) What if we were playing at home, with an A+ Home Court ADVANTANGE? Might that have given us an edge? Might we have done a little better against a team we had a 45pt per man ratings edge over? Might we have come a little closer to covering the 19 pt spread?

Reality, reality, schmeality! Making adjustments to your game plan has about the same effect as following these known advantages when flipping a coin: make sure the sun is over your right shoulder, make sure your foot is extended, shoulders back, head up,... now... flip!

If you follow those rules I can assure you that the coin will come up heads. (or tails).

And when you make sensible adjustments to your game plan, based upon your opponent and his perceived weaknesses, and you have much the superior team, and you have a the maximum HCA, then I can assure you that you will either win or lose!

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in ourselves, but in the stars.

I think, though I have only anecdotal evidence to support this, that the advantage in home court advantage seems to have diminished ever so slightly in the last couple of seasons. That wouldn't explain the rest of that nonsense that happened, however.

I had this exact same reaction in one of my last seasons at Naismith Tennessee, after I lost to a vastly inferior opponent because I shot something like 19% from the floor.

WIS' standard answer is that extreme results happen every once in a blue moon, with so many games being simmed across so many worlds. They specifically cited the 'Nova upset of Georgetown, without ever considering the relative talent levels of the teams in question.

What they don't seem to get is that some results are too extreme to be either realistic or even believable as upsets. 'Nova beating Georgetown was a plausible upset. These games aren't.

According to WIS, every once in a while a team of blind high schoolers who have never played basketball before would beat Kansas, because hey, upsets happen.

Wouldnt you rather write about that 23 point loss to SIM Delaware?

The real answer is WIS is clueless about their engine and how post potential recruits have made DI an absolute coin flip game.

My opponent tonight has the following defense ratings :

Name	Yr.	DE
Jesse Travis	Sr.	99
Andrew Cotta	Sr.	100
Michael Engelhardt	Sr.	99
Michael Harris	Jr.	99
Melvin Bowen	Sr.	99
James Poling	Jr.	99
Harry Westfall	So.	92
Louis Delaney	So.	96
Robert Oliver	Fr.	74
Oscar Bedford	So.	98
Sylvester Brashears	So.	89
Casey Scaggs	So.	79
Averages	94

When almost every player has the "best" rating possible, how can this be anything other than a stupid coin flip dynasty game.

Have to admit, that's a pretty solid rant.

But this question has never been answered:

If talent doesn't matter, and coaching srategy doesn't matter, then why do the same coaches continue to win every season?

Quote: Originally Posted By antonsirius on 1/06/2010
According to WIS, every once in a while a team of blind high schoolers who have never played basketball before would beat Kansas, because hey, upsets happen

I know you're being sarcastic but upsets this extreme don't happen. UNC just lost to a 7-6 College of Charleston team. I think complaining about upsets is silly because like WIS says THEY DO HAPPEN. However teh rebounding thing is a pet peeve of mine, I never understand how at least twice a season I have games where my average team rating on the boards is at least 10 points higher than my opponent and I get outrebounded by 8+.

Just one question, why are you not running uptempo against these inferior opponents? Just thought I would throw that out there as if your overpowering I thought it was HD 101 to run uptempo to weed out the chance of the upset. You probably have a good reason as your in D1 and I am only in D2.

Remember that the new engine and recruit generation is in beta right now, if your not in it already.

I don't know about dogget, but I don't think uptempo works well except when you're against a press. I think against all other offenses your team is much more inefficient on average. Sure you might have some games where you shoot 50% and only turn it over 10 times, but way too often uptempo results in worse shooting than your team should have and a much higher turnover ratio. Maybe others have figured out something I haven't, but there are several very succesful coaches who feel the same way I do.

Well against St. Johns he did play against a press actually kmason, but thats for the insight.

Quote: Originally Posted By antonsirius on 1/06/2010I had this exact same reaction in one of my last seasons at Naismith Tennessee, after I lost to a vastly inferior opponent because I shot something like 19% from the floor.

WIS' standard answer is that extreme results happen every once in a blue moon, with so many games being simmed across so many worlds. They specifically cited the 'Nova upset of Georgetown, without ever considering the relative talent levels of the teams in question.

What they don't seem to get is that some results are too extreme to be either realistic or even believable as upsets. 'Nova beating Georgetown was a plausible upset. These games aren't.

According to WIS, every once in a while a team of blind high schoolers who have never played basketball before would beat Kansas, because hey, upsets happen

Great post, I agree 100%

Reading some of these posts, you'd swear I have aliai other than statsink and kgb_sickle lol.

I think Roy Williams was thinking the same thing the other night when UNC lost to College of Charleston

This rant described my feelings pretty much to the letter after one of my teams lost a similar game at home (where we have an A+ HCA) the other day. We were a 22-point favorite, we should have easily won the game, yet we shot 34% from the floor and got outrebounded. Just a crazy result, except I see a few of them every season.

I think mully's point is an important one: When every team throws out five 95+ defenders, the results are going to look pretty wacky sometimes.

Well, I'm surprised at the sympathetic responses. I've hoisted this flag before and been fired upon instantly and unmercilessly. It warms me.

Forgetting is an active (and necessary) function of the brain. But when there are people like mully around, all the work my brain has done to forget the Delaware game, is rendered useless. Thanks alot, dude!!!

Quote: Originally Posted By kmasonbx on 1/06/2010
I don't know about dogget, but I don't think uptempo works well except when you're against a press. I think against all other offenses your team is much more inefficient on average. Sure you might have some games where you shoot 50% and only turn it over 10 times, but way too often uptempo results in worse shooting than your team should have and a much higher turnover ratio. Maybe others have figured out something I haven't, but there are several very succesful coaches who feel the same way I do.

schroedess, I, too, have had periods where I've run uptempo. But, like kmason, I've never been convinced of its utility. The press is one thing, because fatigue is measured by the number of possessions so uptempo creates more of them. But even then, I can't recall ever running a press into the ground. The players usually have pretty high stamina anyway. (And then there are the times that "I forgot" or "I don't give a crap" is the explanation.)

So, mainly, I just tee it up, try to take the Goldilocks shot (not too fast, not too slow) and win on talent.

Which brings us back to doe (a dear, a female dear. fa, a long long way to run.)