Not a regular season game. Not a PIT game. Not just a NT game, but would you believe the D-3 championship game?

01/07/10 am vs. #2 Massachusetts Liberal Arts 33-2 4 19 g0at 1-3 +2 80-29 w

The team that won the game is Westfield St.

Want to hear something more remarkable? They both met during the nonconference slate with Mass Liberal Arts winning the game by 20. Go figure.

interesting... that is quite a beat down. makes you wonder about those additional random factors, eh?

its kind of wild the 80 point team was the uptempo team, and the 29 point team the slowdown team. when the uptempo/slowdown match up has crazy results, its almost always in the slowdown team's favor, at least in my experience.

the more i look at it, the less appalling it becomes. i wouldn't be surprised if it was only a 1 in a hundred thousand type of occurrence.

the losing team played slowdown against the press, which is always a gamble, as you are allowing more time for the press to create steals. they gave up 17 steals and 22 turnovers, which is not outside the realm of reasonable. the #1 team in the country, playing uptempo, pulled in 25 points off turnovers for a +23 margin on points off turnovers. definitely not average, but not that unlikely, either.

also, the winning team plays a bing-like setup with guards carrying the load and shooting lots of 3s. at fast pace no less. that is an extremely volatile strategy, and if it goes well, you win by huge margins. to say it could reasonably (1%ish or better) cause a +20 point swing by itself is not an overstatement, IMO.

finally, the losing team only took 36 shots, making 8. pretty bad, but they were up against a good press defense, playing slowdown (which should theoretically result in lower fg% than normal tempo in general). if 40% was expected, that would be 1.2%. at 45%, it is about .27%. at 40%, leaving 3pt% at 0, that is a little under a 13 point difference. at 45%, it is a little more than 16.

if you take each event as a 1%, and add the differential, it is roughly 1 in a million, and 59 points. the spread was 51 points, and the better team won. so taking that into account, i feel this is only on the order of 1 in a hundred thousand kind of event. there is a lot of fudging in there but i would guess it is within an order of magnitude of the actual value.

are you CS trying to spin this?

Quote: Originally Posted By thewizard2 on 1/07/2010
Not a regular season game. Not a PIT game. Not just a NT game, but would you believe the D-3 championship game?

01/07/10 am vs. #2 Massachusetts Liberal Arts 33-2 4 19 g0at 1-3 +2 80-29 w

WOW...instant karma's gonna get you....EDIT: Realized it wasn't you lol, though it looks like your cake schedule finally caught up with you lol.

Utterly ridiculous and that's all I'll say.

you run slowdown against a good press and this can happen fast.

Quote: Originally posted by mullycj on 1/07/2010are you CS trying to spin this?

no. simply, as with every other element of this game that takes me by surprise, i do my best to try to understand and explain it. i question everything, and try to leave no conclusion foregone, however obvious it may be. this approach has helped me tremendously in building an understanding of the sim engine, so i have no intentions to change that aspect of my approach.