Will a guy whose in his 4th year in the minors (three full years plus half year after he was drafted) improve at a decent pace regardless of age?

Or does a 25 yo (drafted as 22 yo) improve much more slowly than a 23 yo (drafted as 20 yo) or a 21 yo (drafted as 18 yo)?

Reason I ask is that my 25 yo, with 76 makeup, has pretty much stopped improving this season. 1 point gain in one category, after pretty solid gains the previous two seasons. It's a shame because if he had decent growth this year, he'd have an outside chance of being a major-leaguer next year. He's one of those guys who has to come real close to projection (he's now at 47 OVR, ceiling 51).

My observation is that age has more to do with a slowdown of development than does years of experience. So a 25 year old 3-year pro will generally slow down before a 21 year old 3-year pro will.

i agree with tecwrg...i shy away from drafting older players for that reason...

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/24/2010

My observation is that age has more to do with a slowdown of development than does years of experience. So a 25 year old 3-year pro will generally slow down before a 21 year old 3-year pro will.

Odd, my observation - and it is only that, I haven't run numbers or tracked it with any precision - is that the years experience has much more impact on development (or lack thereof) than age does.

That's not to say I disagree with tec's example - same experience, I'd use age as a tiebreaker, but all else equal I'd expect more development out of the 23 year old player with two years experience than the 22 year old player with three or four years experience.

I'm with zbrent. While an 18 year old may develop 10 points his first full season, to 6 for a 22 year old, both are going to slow considerably by their 4th season. The 18 year old may develop more over the course of his career but he also started at a much lower level.

I have a pitcher who I drafted when he was 22-- he's 25 now and this season in the minors he progressed more than many 21 year olds I've seen. I do believe experience has a lot more to do with it than age.

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My experience is that it seems to depend a lot on which rating you look at. For position players, for example, I think experience is the key guide to hitting rating development, but age seems to play a bigger role in fielding development. For example, I have a prospect with one team who has a SS-only quality bat. However, by the time his bat stopped developing, he had only marginal 3B defense. However, he was an 18-year-old IFA when signed, so his defense has continued to progress rapidly through his 22-year-old season, and he is now approaching SS defense, which could make him a BL regular.

I'm not exactly sure how this applies to pitchers.

My guy went from 42 OVR at age 23 to 45 OVR at age 24 to 47 OVR at the start of this season, when he is 25. He projects to a 51.

He was an 8th-round pick, and if he hit his ceiling or real close, he could be a nice RHS. If his vR, P1 and P2 improved at even half of what they did at age 24, he'd be on the bubble of major-league quality. But none of the three have progressed a single point this season.