35 pt swing. Same teams Topic

dogget
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Nope. Not talking about two games. Talking about two halves! Even teams. We won the 1st half by 13. They won the 2nd half by 22.

Is that two outliers? In one game?
4/17/2010 3:49 PM
cthomas22255
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What's weird in this game is the 31 offensive boards the losing team had compared to the 6 the winning team had. I guess they couldn't convert all those second chances.

But the winning team took and made more 3's in the second half. The scoring disparity makes sense, it happens all the time in real life.
4/17/2010 3:56 PM
dcy0827
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First game that popped into my head was the Clemson-Illinois game from the ACC/Big Ten Challenge this season. Clemson wins the first half by 20. Illinois wins the second half by 22. At Clemson no less.
4/17/2010 5:56 PM
colonels19
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I've had this happen before, I think the margin was bigger, and I was told that nothing odd happened. Needless to say, that didn't pacify me.
4/18/2010 9:49 AM
dogget
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Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 4/17/2010What's weird in this game is the 31 offensive boards the losing team had compared to the 6 the winning team had. I guess they couldn't convert all those second chances.

Shooting 7 for 35 in the 2nd half, with 18 off rebounds, is part of my very point. If we converted 1 out of 3 off boards, (a blistering 33%) then we shot something like 1 for 17 out of our offensive sets. Or if we shot something like 4 for for 17 from our offense, then we converted 1 out of every 6 off boards. (and 2 trips to the line from fouls on off rebs.)

4/18/2010 10:32 AM
dalter
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dog, I don't think the discrepancy from 1st half to 2nd half is weird in itself.

Now, it might be worth looking at a general inability to convert offensive boards. But the two halves on their face wouldn't cause me to blink.
4/18/2010 11:55 AM
jenningss
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Crum, Sam Houston @ E. WA. My home team EWU was down -18 at half. Went +28 2nd half. I've played a few games over all and it's been a few seasons since one of my teams has staged that big of a turnaround. But it happens.

You know, it seems when my team is involved in these lopsided halves games, that generally it's the weaker team on the road that gets and loses the lead.
4/18/2010 12:01 PM
a_in_the_b
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010I've had this happen before, I think the margin was bigger, and I was told that nothing odd happened. Needless to say, that didn't pacify me
Yes, Colonels. We know that reality doesn't pacify you> You have told us that numerous times.

4/18/2010 12:47 PM
doomey
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Looks like you got off to a hot 9 point lead in the first half that pretty much maintained, then in the second half Nevada got hot and you got cold, especially from outside (due to the defensive shifts). Frustrating, but understandable.
4/18/2010 12:58 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/18/2010
dog, I don't think the discrepancy from 1st half to 2nd half is weird in itself.

Now, it might be worth looking at a general inability to convert offensive boards. But the two halves on their face wouldn't cause me to blink.

Again, another WIS apology...you tell me not to call you a WIS apologist, but its all I ever see from you in these threads...what do you want from me?
4/18/2010 5:19 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/18/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010
I've had this happen before, I think the margin was bigger, and I was told that nothing odd happened. Needless to say, that didn't pacify me.
Yes, Colonels. We know that reality doesn't pacify you> You have told us that numerous times
All you ever have are excuses for a mediocre sim...what am I supposed to say...great job...this is complete crap but what the hell?
4/18/2010 5:21 PM
cthomas22255
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It also depends on which segments you look at. You're arbitrarily looking at two 20-minute segments. Look at other segments of different time lengths, and it might appear differently.

In the '98 tournament, Utah was leading Kentucky in the championship game by 16 in the second half. Earlier in that tournament, Kentucky trailed #1 Duke by 17 in the second half. Odds were good that Kentucky loses. Both times Kentucky came back to win.

They were improbable collapses by both teams, but they happen. Duke wasn't complaining about the game being broken or the rules being messed up. It just happens. Not all the time, in 9 of 10 games, Duke probably would have won. Just like Kansas probably beats Northern Iowa in 9 of 10 games this year.

But the improbable happens.

4/18/2010 5:26 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 4/18/2010It also depends on which segments you look at. You're arbitrarily looking at two 20-minute segments. Two halves from the same game is arbitrary? LOL Look at other segments of different time lengths, and it might appear differently. Why would/should I? Why would I look at other game segments when it has nothing to do with the game in question?

In the '98 tournament, Utah was leading Kentucky in the championship game by 16 in the second half. Earlier in that tournament, Kentucky trailed #1 Duke by 17 in the second half. Odds were good that Kentucky loses. Both times Kentucky came back to win. Big deal...real life is the most random thing out there, and anything can happen in real life. Just because it happened once, or a handful of times in real life, that means it should happen here? I completely disagree. Real life is not and should not be an excuse for EVERYTHING that happens in this game.

They were improbable collapses by both teams, but they happen. Duke wasn't complaining about the game being broken or the rules being messed up. BECAUSE IT WAS REAL LIFE...they didn't/can't get potentially screwed by a subpar game engine. It just happens. Not all the time, in 9 of 10 games, Duke probably would have won. Just like Kansas probably beats Northern Iowa in 9 of 10 games this year.

but the improbable happens.

4/18/2010 5:36 PM
dogget
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RL actually does have many more fits and starts than HD should. Because HD is math-based, then abilities are expressed by ratings. Ratings should lead to performance. Performance should reflect the relative strengths and abilities of the players.

It takes an injection of randomness to allow/create a deviation of a certain size.

This game was a 3pt spread. For one team to be leading by 13 at the half means that the ratings/performance schedule had a significant deviation imposed upon it. (Again, not because one team got "hot", because there is no such thing in HD; and not because one team got "cold", because there's no such thing in HD.)

The ratings-yields-performance model endured an even greater, 22pt, deviation in the second half. (Not because some guys got "hot".....)

Then there was the peculiar(?) offensive rebounding to points ratio thingy. (Was that a third disparate deviation?)

So, just where was the "normal" part of that game? You know, the ratings yield performance part.

Or does HD really just stand for the proposition that two deviations make no deviation, i.e., two wrongs make a right.
4/18/2010 7:02 PM
ccmathman
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41 point swing here
Tied at halftime
Won by 41
4/18/2010 7:08 PM
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