Minor League Stats Topic

I know where I stand on this issue but it has sparked a debate in 1 of my worlds and I am honestly quite shocked. Do you put any stock in minor league numbers?

Personally, I do not. I do not care if my team loses every game or wins every game as long as my top prospects get enough playing time. It is a bonus if I make the playoffs and do well, but if I don't, I am certainly not upset. As a courtesy I do keep my pitchers rested so I do not have any 0(0) pitchers pitching. I do not put any stock whatsoever in how my players perform in the minor leagues. There are many sub par minor leaguers in this game (which I find to be a big flaw) that lead to inflated numbers by both hitters and pitchers. Nevertheless, there are plenty of players who under perform their ratings. All I want to see in terms of "numbers" is that my players ratings (numbers) improve consistently throughout their time in the minors. In a game based on ratings, I think it only makes sense that ratings triumph stats when trying to evaluate a player.

Am I wrong on this?
4/28/2010 1:07 PM
I agree 100% with every point you've made.
4/28/2010 1:08 PM
Ditto *except* I will roll the dice on a player that outperforms statwise in relation to the other players on the same team despite ratings.

It's about a 1 in 5 shot that it carries over (more or less), and usually it's a defensive middle infielder/middle outfielder.
4/28/2010 1:25 PM
I agree with all the points in the original post

simiar to death, I check the current year stats against the stat of other guys on my team at the same level ... and like he said, every once in a while you get a guy who seems to be doing better than his ratings say he "should" .. it never seems to hold all the way to the majors, however

but there have been a few guys who I would have ignored but for a killer season stat-wise ... they get a player note identifying them as a guy to watch ... so I put more than "none" value on minor league stats, but not a whole lot more
4/28/2010 3:02 PM
I would definitely agree that if he's putting up great numbers he might deserve a better "look" but in terms of value, if a guy on another team has a great season in the minors but terrible ratings I wouldn't give up anything to get him. And the reverse, if I have a stud with great ratings and he's putting up terrible numbers in the minors I wouldn't deal him for nothing. I would hold his value at what his ratings suggest.
4/28/2010 3:34 PM
I am the opposite of the previous posters-- I will sometimes take stock in minor league stats, but only to see if he is doing exceptionally poorly, not exceptionally well. If a pitcher for example has ERAs in the 7's all throughout the minors, I may start to question whether perhaps I missed something when I originally evaluated his potential.
4/28/2010 3:42 PM
I have a pitcher in Kaline, Claude Foster, who by his ratings (splits 40L/57R) should never be very good above AA, but has been just about my best reliever ahead of a couple of pitchers with splits in the 70s for the past couple of seasons. Goes to show how this is not a science, but sometimes abstract art in building a roster. Had another pitcher, Oswaldo Javier, a couple of seasons ago, with huge splits but no dominant pitch, gave me great minor league numbers and got lit up like Christmas in the majors.
4/28/2010 3:42 PM
There are without a doubt exceptions to the rule as is with most things. But, I think for the most part it holds true. I know I have had players that I just cannot explain why they are doing as well as they are or as bad as they are.
4/28/2010 3:43 PM
yeah, I would never evaluate someone else's player based on minor league stats because I lack the context to put those stats in ... I only do it with my own team because I have 9-10 other guys playing in that same context
4/28/2010 3:46 PM
^^^^^^^^^
What he said.

4/28/2010 3:48 PM
If someone is wildly outperforming what I expect to see from them, there's usually a reason. One rating they have that seems to be overriding their otherwise crappy ratings.

Sometimes, if that happens again and again, I'll consider that I'm undervaluing a particular rating.
4/28/2010 3:54 PM
I agree generally with the OP with respect to how much stock I put in most minor league numbers, which is very little/none.

That said, if someone I consider a ML prospect due to his bat fails to hit at the High A level (for example) I would likely take another look at him and his potential.

I also care whether my minor league teams win. Personally, I think the added development time of the postseason outweighs the added injury risk, so I value every single PA/inning I can get out of prospects (though there does come a fatigue level where I will rest them).
4/28/2010 8:10 PM
Minor League Stats Topic

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