I'm currently sitting at 41-43, yet 1 game in the lead for the division. I've been through a brutal stretch, losing 15 of 17 to bring me below .500. My team is very young, and after game 21 I already promoted a former #1 pick starting pitcher.

My question is: do I promote my #1 starting pitcher pick from the subsequent year, or do I try to space out their arb time?

I have a very young team, just coming into its own. I didn't even think the playoffs were a consideration this year, but obviously the division is there for the taking. How would you all manage this situation, knowing that these consecutive #1's will demand a LOT of money in the future.

Darwin Martin

Promote him, no doubt. You'll have to pay them both eventually anyway. If he could be the difference between a playoff birth and no playoff birth you should go for it.

Promote him and make the playoffs...You're already delaying arb 1 year...which means it could be at least 5 before you have to give him a LT deal, which you can then lock him up for another 5( for 8ish million a year)...thats 3 real life years before you could lose him to free agency...even then he has 88 patience so he is almost a lock to spend his entire career on your team as long as you dont arb him 3 times...
Easy decision imo~

The playoffs are a crap shoot (says the guy with one title in 23 playoff appearances), but that works both ways. With 2 hot SPs even an otherwise mediocre team can go deep in the playoffs. Darwin is ML ready and can contribute now. Why wait? You could get lucky and win the WS.

In any case, there's no way to be sure about how your pitchers will develop down the road. You're worried about long term contracts, but Darwin may get bit by the injury bug and "evolve" into a piece of junk before his arb years end. Go for it now.

not that an easy decision for me...

his vsR sits at 67, not that outstanding, everything else is pretty great though...3 pitches in the 80's

he's obviously still improving, under normal circumstances i would promote him next year...

the question that needs asked is how much better is he than your other options?

I did a player search in my league (Summer of 49) and at this moment he is very similar to this guy who plays in a neutral park

Louie Neruda

he has a career 1.36 WHIP, how much better is that than the guy whose innings he would be replacing?

looking at your starters it looks like he'd be replacing Clark Speaker
and kind of jump in as the 2 or 3 starter, speaker has a 1.49 WHIP and has been ok

by promoting him this year instead of waiting 21 games into next season you are fast tracking free agency by one year, his first year of arb would be year 10 instead of 11, and his first expensive year of arb would be year 11 instead of 12, you'll pay about 8 million more over those 2 years with everything else being pretty much a wash

Think of it this way, by promoting him early you will pay 8-10 million more for him over his career if he stays with your franchise or if he leaves at some point you will lose him a year earlier...is the remainder of this season worth 8 to 10 million to you (a shortened season before he reaches his prime) or if he leaves via free agency down the line there is the chance of losing a year of his service (in his prime no less.)

far from an easy decision this is a very complicated, nuanced decision...

my guess is adding him to your team will add 1 or 2 wins to the bottom line, may be the difference between the playoffs or not, or it may make no difference...doesn't seem worth 8 to 10 million dollars of your payroll spread out over seasons 10 and 11 (i'm assuming you'll stick with this loaded team, if not the whole point is moot)

Thanks for all the input - looks like he may be making his last AAA start as we speak.

I've actually been running with a 4-man rotation for most of the season until just recently, when my bullpen starting blowing every lead. So I increased some of the pitch counts and it looks like I may have to alternate between a 4-man and 5-man rotation. Speaker is indeed the odd man out, and with a 4-man rotation Darwin would be replacing Chad Butler. Who really isn't that bad...

...does that change anyone's opinion?

Quote: Originally Posted By mbriese on 5/03/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By danmam on 5/03/2010
Promote him, no doubt. You'll have to pay them both eventually anyway. If he could be the difference between a playoff birth and no playoff birth you should go for it.

How much growth does he still have?

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From where I'm sitting I see he only has 3 years of pro experience. What I would suggest is go with what you have because if you have lost 15 of 17 and still have the division lead you will probably turn things around and stay in the lead. I would keep him in AAA until rosters expand and then bring him up for the playoff run. Put him back in AAA to start next season and promote him once it is safe to do so without starting his arb clock. He still has some developing to do and from everything I've seen players develop better in the minors so having there longer will help you in the long run.

Quote: Originally posted by timf on 5/03/2010From where I'm sitting I see he only has 3 years of pro experience. What I would suggest is go with what you have because if you have lost 15 of 17 and still have the division lead you will probably turn things around and stay in the lead. I would keep him in AAA until rosters expand and then bring him up for the playoff run. Put him back in AAA to start next season and promote him once it is safe to do so without starting his arb clock. He still has some developing to do and from everything I've seen players develop better in the minors so having there longer will help you in the long run.

This is one hundred percent, absolute crap. Players will improve at any level as long as the coaches are good and they are getting PT. This won't be a problem in either case, right?

Yeah, he'll be getting plenty of starts in AAA and/or ML.

Quote: Originally posted by schnoogens on 5/03/2010Yeah, he'll be getting plenty of starts in AAA and/or ML.

Then as long as your ML coaches are better than your AAA coaches -- and for many different reasons I hope they are, lol -- he'll progress fine, without any issue. Don't let THAT be part of your consideration. His growth, as you can see, is already slowing, but it won't slow more.

As for the promote or not, I'd do it. If it gets you to the playoffs, like many have said, it's worth it. Never know what could happen there.

Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 5/03/2010

Quote: Originally posted by schnoogens on 5/03/2010 Yeah, he'll be getting plenty of starts in AAA and/or ML.

Then as long as your ML coaches are better than your AAA coaches -- and for many different reasons I hope they are, lol -- he'll progress fine, without any issue. Don't let THAT be part of your consideration. His growth, as you can see, is already slowing, but it won't slow more.

As for the promote or not, I'd do it. If it gets you to the playoffs, like many have said, it's worth it. Never know what could happen there

How is his growth already slowing? His pitches are already ML level so obviously they are going to progress slower. He just needs to improve his splits and control which are moving along at 1 point of improvement per progression cycle. Why promote him and start the arb clock after only 2-1/2 seasons of pro ball? He will be an ace if groomed properly so why bring him up if he is only SP3 or SP4 calibre right now? Leave him in AAA until the roster expansion like I said earlier and bring up then, that's when you want him anyhow.

In 157 innings, he improved 8 overall. In 220 innings, he improved 7 overall. In 136 innings, he improved 2 overall. That's sort of a pattern. Additionally, anyone who has played HBD a good bit KNOWS that player progression slows as players get more experience.

As for "Why promote him and start the arb clock after only 2-1/2 seasons of pro ball?", I would think "I need him to make the playoffs" would be a fine reason. In fact, that would be a VERY GOOD reason.