Quote: Originally Posted By reinsel on 5/26/2010
I don't think its dead. Just weaker. Pressing Memphis just destroyed Man2Man #22 Florida State in Allen last night. 82-55 I think.
I thought this would make for an interesting case-study. I took this game and the UMD(FCP)/Tennessee State(FCP) games and looked at a few things. Thought these would be interesting because Mem/FSU is fairly evenly matched (Mem won) but UMD/Tenn State was a huge mismatch in favor of UMD and a home game for UMD but Tenn State won. To save you the long read the upshot is that stamina is even more critical than before and coaches that continue to run the press may have to really re-think their roster management in terms of taking walk-ons/redshirting guys.
I adjusted the Off and Def IQs, Def Rating, and Stamina for minutes played and here's how it looks:
Memphis vs FSU
Mem Def IQ: A-, FSU Off IQ: B
Mem Def Rating: 74
Mem Stam: 87
So advantage to Memphis in IQ and they win big at home in an evenly matched game.
MD vs Tenn State
MD Def IQ: B, Tenn State Off IQ: C+/B- right on the border
MD Off IQ: B-, Tenn State Def IQ: B-
MD Def Rating: 86, Tenn State Def Rating: 77
MD Stam: 78, Tenn State: 80
MD has a huge talent advantage and an advantage in IQ when their press is on the floor vs Tenn State's offense...but they lose at home. What seems to have made the difference is that, while both teams are tired throughout the game, by the end (and in OT) MD is just exhausted - 3 guys on the floor in full on red for the entire 5 minutes. Basically a full shade more exhausted on average than Tenn State.
So in the end a 2pt stamina advantage overcame: 1) the homecourt, 2) a 7 pt def rating difference, 3) a slight IQ difference, and 4) a massive overall talent difference. And since its a fouling machine and guys are fouling out that makes stamina even more important...
Which means the press teams may have to re-think how they manage their rosters. The other issue MD has is that they're redshirting a guy and had two guys foul out - one with 11 mins in the game, the other with 4 mins . From the 16 min mark to the 4 min mark they played with 10 guys and from the 4 min mark til the end of OT they played with 9 guys.
Edited to correct the MD stamina - typo.