OT: Math/Probability Help Topic

colonels19
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Alright gentlemen, now I'm looking for some math/probability help.

If an event has a 22.3% chance of occuring and it ends up occuring 29 out of 31 times (93.55%), how do I figure what overall percent chance that had of happening?

The help would be greatly appreciated. If I'm being unclear or what have you, please let me know
5/30/2010 11:38 AM
tannermcc
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highschool precalculus FTW
5/30/2010 11:41 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By tannermcc on 5/30/2010highschool precalculus FT
Ironically enough, I took pre-calc in high school and did very well, but I don't remember that much of it.
5/30/2010 11:43 AM
jdno
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if you google for "factorial" or "permutation" (or maybe even probability), you could probably find the answer. I'm really rusty on this stuff, but knew it way back when, so I know it has something to do with this stuff.
5/30/2010 12:00 PM
colonels19
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What if I rolled out a number, 2208.7...do you think that solidifies my argument lol...fwiw...that's 29 times the chance of it not happening (77.7%) - 2 times the chance of it happening (22.3%)...got to love that colonel math eh? lol
5/30/2010 12:03 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 5/30/2010What if I rolled out a number, 2208.7...do you think that solidifies my argument lol...fwiw...that's 29 times the chance of it not happening (77.7%) - 2 times the chance of it happening (22.3%)...got to love that colonel math eh? lo
Call me crazy...the more I think about this, the more I like it...but I think I would need some kind of baseline comparison to show how vast 2208.7 would be in context.
5/30/2010 12:18 PM
oldave
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you lost me with the 2208.7

completely lost me
5/30/2010 1:05 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 5/30/2010
Alright gentlemen, now I'm looking for some math/probability help.

.....
oh, i see, trick question.
5/30/2010 1:07 PM
jdno
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5/30/2010 1:43 PM
shaf5576
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Google binomial calculator. sample size (n) = 31, probability of success (p) = .223. If you choose probability that X equals exactly 29 that will give you the probability of the event occurring 29 out of 31 times. What you probably really want is the probability that the event occurred at least 29 out of 31 times (Prob. X is at least 29). Either way, it's going to be almost zero.
5/30/2010 2:38 PM
metsmax
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its like a coin toss, it either happens or it doesnt, eh?
5/30/2010 3:02 PM
cthomas22255
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Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 5/30/2010Alright gentlemen, now I'm looking for some math/probability help.If an event has a 22.3% chance of occuring and it ends up occuring 29 out of 31 times (93.55%), how do I figure what overall percent chance that had of happening?The help would be greatly appreciated.  If I'm being unclear or what have you, please let me know

Are you looking at something in the game? How did you know there was a 22.3% chance of the event occurring?
5/30/2010 3:11 PM
watch_this
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This is actually high school AP Statistics, which I took this year. If you want the chance that it happens exactly 29 times out of 31 it would be ((.223)^29)*((.777)^2) but if you want the probability that it happens 29 times or more it would be ((.223)^29)*((.777)^2)+((.223)^30)*((.777)^1)+((.223)^31). I would solve it for you but I don't have my graphing calculator with me.
5/30/2010 3:22 PM
arssanguinus
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To really melt your noodle, though, what chance would there be of it occurring exactly 22,3% of the time(About 7 out of 31)? Probably lower than you think.
5/30/2010 3:24 PM
watch_this
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Although I have no idea where the 2208.7 came into play.
5/30/2010 3:24 PM
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