There seems to be different theories on what the contact rating actually does.  Most people agree that it affects the frequency of a batter striking out.  But does it also modify splits?  In other words, if you took a player with 100/50/50/50/50 hitting ratings would you EXPECT him to have very close to the same BA, OBP, SLG, SECA, etc as a guy with 0/50/50/50/50 and the only difference being that the former would have much fewer strikeouts than the latter?

Ummmm, no.  From what I know, it is not only strikeouts, but balls put into play.  Someone that puts a ball into play 100 more times in a year, is bound to have at LEAST 10-30 more hits. 

So you're saying a guy with higher contact would, simply by law of averages, luck into more hits?  Interesting.  I never thought of it that way.  The reason I'm asking is I always thought it was a modifier of splits.  But never thought of it figuring into BABIP (batting average of balls in play). 

I have a few players with higher contact who aren't hitting for as high a BA as I would think they should, and a few with lower contact who hit for a higher BA than I expect.  So my new hypothesis is that contact only controls strikeout frequency and nothing else.  But I'd like more input before drawing to that conclusion.

"Contact determines how well the player can make contact at the plate."

It doesn't say how often.

Based on the quote above though, someone with higher contact will do better when putting balls into play, therefore he should have a higher batting average than smoeone with a lower contact.  All other ratings being equal of course......

Posted by randallball on 6/28/2010 5:24:00 PM (view original):
"Contact determines how well the player can make contact at the plate."

It doesn't say how often.

So... what's the point?  Could you elaborate on that?

FishNasty, just because a guy puts the ball in play more often than another guy doesn't guarantee he'll have a higher BA.  But that's what I'm trying to figure out.  Maybe, for the sake of this game, the developers made it such that a higher contact rating DOES guarantee a higher BA.  That's what I'm trying to find out.

Ahhh, good points.  I don't know what I was thinking.  He WILL get more hits than the other guy, but not necc. a higher average.  However, for the most part, wouldn't you rather have a guy put a ball into play than strike out?  I appreciate where this conversation is leading and would like to hear other thoughts as well.  Good questions.

Posted by jimmystick on 6/28/2010 5:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by randallball on 6/28/2010 5:24:00 PM (view original):
"Contact determines how well the player can make contact at the plate."

It doesn't say how often.

So... what's the point?  Could you elaborate on that?

I think of it much more as a multiplier than as a flat number.

In other words, if you take two players, both switch hitters like:

Player A) 60 contact, 60 power, 60 vsL, 60 vsR, 60 batting eye, 60 speed
Player B) 30 contact, 60 power, 60 vsL, 60 vsR, 60 batting eye, 60 speed

Player A wouldn't simply strike out (arbitrary number alert) ~60 more times, he would strike out 40 more times AND put the ball in play with authority (with his power and split ratings) several more times, too.

Say Player B strikes out 150 times in 600 PA.  Player A, only 90 times. Player A is already at a 60 PA advantage, wherein he not only has 60 more possible hits, but 60 more XBH opps. 

He will also likely make contact well in (arbitrary number alert #2) ~50 more PA. giving him an increased chance at hits and XBH in ~110 more PA than the lower contact hitter.

I didn't take much time to put this example together, so the numbers are just numbers, but that is how I view the effects of the contact rating.

You can't get a hit unless you put the ball in play.   Contact literally means the ability to put the bat on the ball.

If you don't disagree with either of those statements, you have to believe an 80 contact will have more hit opportunities than a 70 contact.  And, of course, he has more of a chance of hitting into a double play.

Mark Bellhorn is one of the few pros who truly mastered the art of avoiding the double play.

I can almost guarantee that contact directly affects batting average. That's why a guy like Orval Yeats can be successful-- no power whatsoever, but he makes solid contact and has the speed necessary to leg out grounders, and thus he's got a .288 career average and decently low strikeout numbers despite only a 47 batting eye. I am sure a guy with the power to hit a fly ball every once in a while would see less of a reliance on speed to get him hits, but the principle still stands.

Posted by prezuiwf on 6/28/2010 7:37:00 PM (view original):
I can almost guarantee that contact directly affects batting average. That's why a guy like Orval Yeats can be successful-- no power whatsoever, but he makes solid contact and has the speed necessary to leg out grounders, and thus he's got a .288 career average and decently low strikeout numbers despite only a 47 batting eye. I am sure a guy with the power to hit a fly ball every once in a while would see less of a reliance on speed to get him hits, but the principle still stands.

He's got a .288 career average, but seems (based on career games/PA) to be part of a platoon (which is how I'd use him too) so that 80+ vs RH probably helps him out a lot, too.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/28/2010 7:51:00 PM (view original):
Only checked last three seasons but 56 of his 147 hits were of the infield variety.  

I wonder how many of those are tied to his 92 bunt rating. 

Of course, it would make sense that the effectiveness of a high bunt rating might be tied to contact as well. Anyone have a low contact high bunt speedster who gets enough PA to compare?