You know the drill... use this thread to post your thoughts, opinions & reactions to owners' draft decisions - including your own.  The one rule, above all else...

DON'T MENTION ANYONE NOT DRAFTED

Don't do it.

banditone - Charles Barkley
ncih - Moses Malone
empdenied - Wilt Chamberlain
tricky24 - Dennis Rodman
dh555 - Larry Bird
uvasooner - Magic Johnson

jakotay - Michael Jordan
xxevilivexx - Lebron James
Shapandrew7 - Dwyane Wade
robocoach - David Robinson
sappy - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
scudmissle - Shaquille O'Neal

eleibowitz - Chris Paul
tarheel1991 - Karl Malone
longtallbrad
badja
ashamael
gtak

lhtgk
captainzen
felonius
98average
coachcroft
bsmuke

so I think we already have our first misstep if only a slight one but we wont be able to really talk around it until after the next couple picks are made - I suppose arguments can be made in both directions and I will present my argument once we get the all safe

nah.  I know who you're talking about, and I think most people do, but we didn't name him, give his position(s) or any indication of stats or why you or I think he's worthy of the #1 pick.  That's cool.  Saying something like "That guard with 56% efg% and really low tov% would be perfect for your team wink wink nudge nudge" is kind of bad, though.

edit - glen took him.  At least, that's who I assume you were talking about.

yep Moses does more of what Chuck does better for longer

more of some of what Chuck does.  Chuck has much higher efg%, ts% & can do it from the SF position.  More foul prone, though, and he has a higher tov%.  But again... you can get 45 guys that'll get you close to what Moses does for you at the 4 or 5... how many guys can you get at the 3 that does what Chuck does?  Very, very few.

dh... don't talk about players who haven't been drafted.  That's the one and only rule!

dh would have talked about fight club.

everyone i mentioned had been drafted when i made the comment

oh?  Sorry.  When I read the part about a couple of guys being drafted very soon I immediately red flagged it before checking.

Posted by empdenied on 7/6/2010 5:10:00 PM (view original):
dh would have talked about fight club.

oh man that was a great laugh right there.  Thanks for that.

I keep thinking eventually I'll figure certain things out and I never do, so I'll ask:

Chris Paul went 9th in the last draft and 12th in this one. I mean, fine, great A\T ratio, doesn't foul, but is he really that good?

I don't think so.  He has very few of the things I look for in a PG for a $42M cap.  My main issue with cp3 is his high usg% but lack of ftas.  His 08-09 season is pretty decent on the boards (and gets to the line more), but his 07-08 season is better from beyond the arc and has a better tov%.  He also has a high defense which jacks his price up.  All-in-all, if I'm spending 9+ million on a point guard, he better be rebounding, hitting threes AND getting to the line for me.  cp3 doesn't do that and is why I avoid using him in the $42M format.  $52M is a different story, however...

too much money for too few minutes at this cap for a position that is easily handled elsewise

Posted by felonius on 7/6/2010 9:39:00 PM (view original):
too much money for too few minutes at this cap for a position that is easily handled elsewise

Yeah.  With a couple of exceptions, I typically look to spend between 5.5 and 7.0 million dollars on a PG in the $42M format.  Magic is one of those exceptions.  CP3 is not.  Just my taste, though... he's certainly very good and some owners use him very well.  Just make sure he's not the highest usg% on your team or you're not getting past round 2 IMO.

I've got some time here, so I'm going to go a bit further into the cp3 disdain.

Magic Johnson

89-90 Lakers

PG

$8,293,638

Chris Paul

08-09 Hornets

PG

$9,678,136

Okay, we have more than a $1.3M price difference for these two guys.  Here's how they match up:

Shot%	Def Rating	Position Effectiveness
Perimeter	Midrange	Paint		PG	SG	SF	PF	C
25%	38%	37%	82	100%	100%	100%	79%	61%

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	79	37.2	22.3	1.6	6.6	48.0%	38.0%	89.0%	11.5	3.7	1.7	0.4	2.1
Per 48 Min	79	-	28.8	2.1	8.5	48.0%	38.0%	89.0%	14.8	4.7	2.2	0.6	2.7
Totals	79	2937	1765	128	522	546/1138	106/279	567/637	908	289	132	34	167

	Usage%	FG%+	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
Advanced	24.8	101	52.6	4.8	13.8	35.8	1.9	0.6

Shot%	Def Rating	Position Effectiveness
Perimeter	Midrange	Paint		PG	SG	SF	PF	C
14%	49%	37%	95	100%	90%	80%	70%	60%

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	78	38.5	22.8	0.9	5.5	50.3%	36.4%	86.8%	11.0	3.0	2.8	0.1	2.7
Per 48 Min	78	-	28.5	1.1	6.9	50.3%	36.4%	86.8%	13.8	3.7	3.5	0.2	3.4
Totals	78	3002	1781	69	432	631/1255	64/176	455/524	861	231	216	10	212

	Usage%	FG%+	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
Advanced	27.8	110	52.8	2.6	13.7	38.9	3.5	0.2

Here's an additional stat NOT provided by WIS even though they use it:  Tov%

89-90 Magic - 16.9%
08-09 CP3 - 13.5%

For my $1.3M extra I'm spending, I get more assists, less turnovers, more steals. 
I get slightly higher efg% but less threes, so that's no good. 
I get less than 100 more minutes, yet I get more than 100 less ftas (at a lower make%). 
dreb% is virtually the same, but I lose 2% oreb% in the deal. 
I gain 13 defense (negligible) and lose positional flexibility. 
More negatives... I now have someone fouling 3.4 times per 48 versus someone who was fouling 2.7 per same 48.
cp3 has a much higher usage (he's in a different tier), so getting someone who gets to the line a lot that has higher usage (in a draft league) is going to be tough.  That is counter productive.

All in all, you spend more to do less to win the possession war.  That, to me, is why Magic (and MJ, if you count his 88-89 season as such) is the only PG worth drafting in the top 10.  Can't dis CP3 at 12... but I feel he's more in the high teens for $42M.  There is at least one other PG I'd draft ahead of him - probably two - but he's a good value for the high teens.

I can't really do any other comparisons right now because they are the only two drafted at this point.


Got a couple more minutes, so I'll throw in 07-08 CP3 (which I like far more) into the equation:

Shot%	Def Rating	Position Effectiveness
Perimeter	Midrange	Paint		PG	SG	SF	PF	C
19%	48%	32%	89	100%	90%	80%	70%	60%

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	80	37.6	21.1	0.8	4.0	48.8%	36.9%	85.1%	11.6	2.5	2.7	0.1	2.3
Per 48 Min	80	-	26.9	1.0	5.1	48.8%	36.9%	85.1%	14.8	3.2	3.5	0.1	3.0
Totals	80	3006	1684	62	321	630/1291	92/249	332/390	925	201	217	4	185

	Usage%	FG%+	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
Advanced	26.5	107	52.4	2.3	9.8	39.5	3.5	0.1

$9,215,549
12.1% tov%

Now we're talking about a guy less than $0.9M more expensive.  Improvements over 08-09?  higher ast%, lower tov%, less fp48, more threes, lower usg%.
negatives?  even less rebounds and less ftas.

I love the tov%.  That is insane for a pg that has over 30% ast%.  ESPECIALLY for one with almost 40% ast%.  But he doesn't help you on the boards, not really, and he hinders your getting the opponent into foul trouble.  Again, high teens, this is cool... you've got a great shot at getting someone with more usage who gets to the line more... but it begins to get difficult once you're drafting in day 2 of round 2.


(for the record, I like 07-08 better in $42M and 08-09 better in $52M.  You want those boards in $52M... it's not quite as necessary in $42M).