pitchers recording hits with 2 outs, Topic

pitchers record hits way to often... especially with 2 outs, and no one on.  In one season only 70 games through it must of happend 10 times. its ridiculous.. and you know when they get a hit its gonna start a rally
10/19/2010 1:32 PM
As far as I can tell, pitchers' averages seem pretty reasonable across the board...  Meaning that they do NOT record hits way too often...  Sometimes they vary significantly because it's a small sample size, but even within one team if you look at the full pitching staff's average vs. RL average it's typically pretty reasonable.  Obviously you notice those 2-out hits, but 10 in 70 games is certainly a small enough number that it's perfectly statistically reasonable.  How 'bout you calculate how many total 2-out PAs pitchers have had in those games and see what average those 10 hits comes out to...  It should be something close to 70 ABs if not more.  So that's a sub-.150 average.  If you're counting pitchers on both teams it's gonna be under .100.  Not sure what the problem is there...
10/19/2010 1:37 PM
True story: Frank Tanana went 0-for-77 for me one season last year until his final at-bat in the last game of the season when he got a single. If he finished with an 0-for-the-season, it would've by far exceeded the real-life record which I believe is 0-for-61. 
10/20/2010 4:51 PM
When a pitcher gets a key hit, it stands out and without doing any analysis it seems they get more hits than they should. Any examination of stats shows that is not the case. It's like an A+ SS making an error in a big spot, which stands out more than a C- SS making a few errors over a few games. You need to realize that a pitcher with a lousy .050 average is still going to get hits once every 20 at bats, a third of those will come with two outs, and some will drive in runs that win games. There's a big difference between rarely hitting and never hitting, and the difference seems exaggerated when playing live games.

I checked pitchers' batting averages for all my teams that are more than a third into their seasons (including only pitchers 50+ PA in real life):
• 8 are hitting better than their real-life stats, 7 are hitting worse.
• 7 of the 15 are within seven points of their RL average; statistically, that's hitting exactly what they should.

Looking at your two teams well into their seasons likeastone, your pitchers with the most RL at-bats on one team are hitting .195, compared to their RL averages of .206; on the other team, they are hitting .086 compared to .132 in real life. If someone were to take the time to compute the difference for all the pitchers in that league, I'd wager that the diffrerence between RL hitting and sim hitting is close to non-existent. 
10/20/2010 7:54 PM
pitchers recording hits with 2 outs, Topic

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