Well, we DID answer, more or less. The thing you left out in your equation was: The changes in the seasons which were represented in your four season prestige window. A trip to the Elite Eight cycled out and was replaced by a second round NT. A final four moves farther down the list and therefore received less weight. As tkimble said, also, your win loss also contributes. YOu also haven't won the CT in several years, and the season before this only went to round one.