1) Probably, and it matters, but not a large difference in change. Not like a 3.9 vs. 2.1... I've seen a chart somewhere in the forums (iguana?) where a coach lists probable impacts of H.S. gpa. The only surefire way I know of to learn how fast a player increases IQ is evaluations during recruiting. You'll get a "Fast/slow/avg" learner comment. Also, note that no matter how good his college grades may become his fundamental ability to increase IQ will not change.
2) YES. (well, 99.9%, I suppose the "not smart kid" could be the worse student in the land and require 30 minutes of studyhall, still become ineligible with a 1.9gpa at end of term, and just generally cause stomach acid to boil.
In general, do factor in hs gpa. I dont search for it during recruiting but do use it to compare between the players I've found.