Looking for advice on my #1 overall draft pick. Topic

I am looking at four guys. And I am seeing them all with 18mill spent. This is only my 4th season. And its the 4th season of a new world. How I see them. I think the #2 SP may be better overall but I like how #1 can bounce back faster with 30Dur.  I see #3 as a better hitter overall. But #4 will be able toplay a lot more with his 92Dur.  Any feed back would be great. Thanks

                    Age   Makeup       Ov       Dur        Hel        Stam         Con         L          R          Vol         GB        1       2       3       4      5    
1.   SP        21      59->66         83        30         81           81              89          78        82         96          50       91     80    52     40

2.   SP        20       76->83        81        19         91           80              100        76       87          86          26       89    70     61    60     33


                Age     Makeup    Ov    Dur    Hel    Con    Pow        L        R        Eye    Br    Bunt    Push/Pul Rag    Glv  Arm   Acc    Sped
3.  SS       21      84->94      89     75      94       83      90         83     73        66     81      38        60          82       80    78     86         89

4.  SS       21      90->97      87     92      99       55      79         71      83       58      80       70        59        77      79    75      87         68

I put there make up on there now. Not sure how much it plays into things. But the guy I was looking at #1 has the lowest make of the four guys.
3/7/2011 4:49 PM (edited)
I like #1 over #2 because of the DUR factor.  Not a whole lot of meaningful difference in their ratings, so I'd rather have the extra IP's that #1 can produce over the slightly higher quality of #2.

#3 is marginal as a SS.  He'll be below average defensively at the position.  He's better suited at 3B.  #4 is definitely a 3B.

Hitting wise, you're right.  #3 will be better with the bat than will #4.

If you want to play #3 at SS, and you get an 80/85/85/85+ defensive SS to back him up, DUR might not be as big a factor if he's replaced late in games with a defensive replacement.

Overall, here's how I'd rank them:  #1, #3, #2, #4.

3/7/2011 12:35 PM
tec's nailed the basic analysis.  My strong preference would be for #3 (who is almost  a unique talent if those projections are correct) over the pitchers, and I think #4 (occasional all-star 3B, not really a stud) is a lot worse than the other 3.
3/7/2011 12:44 PM
3, 1, 2, 4
3/7/2011 1:29 PM
I think I would take #1 narrowly over #3. To me, being able to put .900 OPS in the shortstop position gives you a massive advantage over almost every other team. His projections aren't atrocious for SS, so I think you can get away with it. However, if his development gets stunted for any reason (you are unable to sign a quality fielding instructor each of the next 3 years, or if he gets any significant injury), and he winds up at like 80/75/75/83... then you wind up with a 2B who will hit in the .900 OPS range. Still valuable, but not as valuable as the stud pitcher.

So because of that, I would take #1. Even if he misses some of his projections, he's still incredibly valuable. In a perfect world, I like #3 better, but #1 is the safer choice to me. The only difference would be maybe a 40-point difference in makeup between the other. If #3 had 80+ makeup and #1 had less than 50, I would probably go with #3.
3/7/2011 3:21 PM
A lot of this analysis depends on age, current ratings, makeup, and coaching, because projections for an 18-yr old with 50 makeup don't mean ****, while even a 22-yr old with 90 makeup might not have the time to develop to his full potential.

With all those being equal, 1-3-2-4. 
3/7/2011 3:27 PM
With the new info regarding age/makeup, I'd take the SS with the first pick.  Even if he doesn't fully develop his fielding skills, he'll be a Gold Glove 3B or 2B, and a guaranteed starter for 10-15 years.  The pitcher will still be a good pitcher, but is more likely to be a #2/#3 pitcher, and will NEVER reach his full potential ratings.  In fact, it puts the pitchers much closer together.
3/7/2011 6:31 PM
Another factor to consider that isn't mentioned is the patience ratings. I know it's not a huge factor, but it could make the difference if you are close between two guys as to whether or not you get to keep him for his entire career.
For 80+ OVR players, Patience < ~67 means that they are going to go to free agency after their first post arbitration contract.
3/7/2011 6:47 PM
#3 definitely, even if you have to rest him every so often. Not  a real SS but could be an MVP GG  3B.
3/7/2011 8:17 PM
I like #3 but here's something I've learned:  Good starting pitchers are almost impossible to get unless you draft them.  Way too expensive in the FA market, also expensive in the IFA market, very few people want to trade them, and when they do, they ask for a lot.  I would take the offensive hitter, but if you don't have a lot of good pitchers in your minors, or if you value pitching over hitting, then go with #1. 
3/8/2011 4:02 PM
With 3's lower durablitly rating you'll get about 560-570 100% PA's from #3.  Start him against all RH's and let him sit and pinch hit against  lefties.  He's a heck of a hitting talent.  83 contact and 90 power  equals a whole ot of  35-40 HR's, even with those low PA's.

#1's lower Makeup may make it harder for him to hit projections. But if he does, he's a heck of a starter. 240 innings a year.

Would be interesting to know where they are starting right now....#-wise.  Who is closer to projections right now? That would make the differnece or me on who to take.  It's close. I like pitchers and generally draft them and trade for them.  But #3 is quite a talent...who could play SS.  I like the idea of signing a backup with a heck of a glove and then using him liberally in late innings when ahead. 

#2 isn't bad, either.

#3 by a nose.



3/9/2011 1:57 AM
i'd go with #3.... play him against righties only to keep him fresh. Get an all gove SS to back him up late in games who can only hit lefties

then i'd say #1...

3/9/2011 4:44 AM
Posted by trobone on 3/9/2011 4:44:00 AM (view original):
i'd go with #3.... play him against righties only to keep him fresh. Get an all gove SS to back him up late in games who can only hit lefties

then i'd say #1...

You can play #3 WAY more frequently than strictly platooning him.  Jose Picasso is a pretty good comp, not quite as good a hitter but a better basestealer, and has even lower DUR... I rest him every 5th game, when my 98 GB/FB guy pitches, moving my 95 range CF into 2B on those days and playing my backup CF.  #3 should be able to be rested every 6th to 7th game; no need to sit him against every LHP, which is about a third of the time.

That said, trobone and others are dead on target about the back-up.  All my worlds have several very good defensive SS who can hit lefthanded pitching, and the good availability of such players makes #3 even more valuable.  If you remove #3 for defense you may even be able to outright rest him even less frequently than every 6-7 games.

3/9/2011 12:45 PM
What are you going with? I'd probably take the pitcher though with that dur/sta combination he could start two games of every playoff series. Those guys are impossible to get in free agency usually.
3/9/2011 5:37 PM

One day I am thinking SS then the next day I am on the SP. If I knew the SP would hit his numbers for sure. I would go with the SP. In my 3 1/4 seasons played. i feel like its a lot harder to get the SP then the bat.

3/10/2011 6:27 PM
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