Signing a guy long term? After 2nd or 3rd Arb Topic

Is it better to try to sign a guy after his 2nd year of Arbitration? Will it be cheaper to get him after his 2nd season? If I go a 3rd year does it make him more likely to try the FA market or up the price?

Player example -  whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

In my four short seasons I am yet to come to this point with a player. 

Thanks


3/13/2011 8:43 PM
I consider the 2nd arb-year to be the break-even point.  If a guy fits into my long-term plans, I'll arb him the first year and LT him in the second.
3/13/2011 9:05 PM
I'll usually arb someone the second time, then sign before the third.  Exception-- if someone looks like he's going to decline in 5 seasons after the first arb to the point where that's as long as I want him, I'll lock him up then.
3/13/2011 10:10 PM
Signing a guy long term? After 2nd or 3rd Arb Topic

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