I generally do 2 arb years and then the LT contract with star players - the arb years may not even end up being all that much cheaper than the LT sometimes, but you extend the amount of time you have the player before he hits the open market. I do not believe taking a guy to arb twice is enough to risk him then turning down that first LT contract. As has been pointed out, if a player is pretty much done developing, you don't really risk his LT demands going up in the meantime either - though they should probably work that into the game to some degree.