Maybe I just don't get into these situations enough, but I can't explain this one:

Come in on a guy being recruited by a SIM at 2 AM the first night -- get the message that I have to understand, but some other schools look pretty good right now, etc; sounds like the "you're losing, but not by much" message.  Decide not to put any more effort into him for the time being and see what happens with some other stuff.  Wake up, and at the 8 AM cycle get a message out of the blue from the guy: "You're my #1 choice right now!  I wish I could sign today!"  Apropos of nothing.  Am I crazy, or does that not make any sense?

Maybe the other coach tried to throw a redshirt at him, or if you have higher prestige, the "considering credit" may have done it for you. I've passed sims and been totally confused as to why, except for the possibliity of considering credit for higher prestige being worth more than lower prestige.