I know many people have formulas that they use to predict how good a recruit will when he reaches his full potential. I would greatly appreciate if someone could tell me if they have a formula they use that uses work ethic impact on the different potentials. Thanks

What you are asking for is impossible

It definitely is possible, I just wanted to ask if anybody has done it before I put in a lot of hard thinking about it.

How is it possible?  It directly relates to just how high the potential caps are (which can not be known), how much the player plays, whether the player starts,  and what minutes you put into practicing each category.  There is no way to calculate the impact of work ethic  on potential because those categories are not going to be the same for any 2 players.

Well if you say that, I will agree. I know that the best people in this game probably have some way of predicting how good a player will be, that's why they go after the players they do. So, okay if nobody has a way to do that then I'll just try to estimate myself then.

yes, they estimate it based off of the potentials using scouting visits to determine if a high potential is high-high or low-high

Yeah, I know that, but I was just wondering if they used WE as a factor for a certain amount of increase from the norm.

the caps are the caps regardless of work ethic.  work ethic only determines how fast the player gets there, if they get there at all.

Ok. Thanks.

zsap, I think I feel where you are trying to come from - but what bow is saying is largely true. Given reasonable (say 20+) WE and some starts and decent minutes, almost every recruit will reach their maximum potential. All those other factors affect how quickly they reach it. I can't speak for everyone, but I personally just project based upon scouting evals like bow said, and assume that the kid will indeed max out before graduating. Most times (95%+) this has been the case...

Posted by bow2dacowz on 9/4/2011 7:51:00 PM (view original):
How is it possible?  It directly relates to just how high the potential caps are (which can not be known), how much the player plays, whether the player starts,  and what minutes you put into practicing each category.  There is no way to calculate the impact of work ethic  on potential because those categories are not going to be the same for any 2 players.

Like bow2 says, there are too many variables.  That's part of the fun since nobody can know for sure how fast a player will improve or exactly how far he will go.

if only there was an oracle that could predict how we would affect potential...

Posted by jtt8355 on 9/5/2011 9:25:00 AM (view original):
if only there was an oracle that could predict how we would affect potential...

There aren't any oracles these days.  They're now called "hackers". 

Posted by dacj501 on 9/4/2011 9:15:00 PM (view original):
zsap, I think I feel where you are trying to come from - but what bow is saying is largely true. Given reasonable (say 20+) WE and some starts and decent minutes, almost every recruit will reach their maximum potential. All those other factors affect how quickly they reach it. I can't speak for everyone, but I personally just project based upon scouting evals like bow said, and assume that the kid will indeed max out before graduating. Most times (95%+) this has been the case...

I often try to use WE to make a reasonable estimate for where the recruit will be at the end of each season.  Sure most guys at least get close to capping out, but that really only tells most of the story if you seriously stack your classes.  The reality is that if you want to win every season you're probably playing most guys 8-10 minutes as freshmen, a few more than that as sophomores, and quite a few as juniors and seniors.  Just because it's fairly easy to figure out how good a guy will be when he is capped out for his senior NT doesn't mean that's all the info you need.  A high-WE player (55+) who was a good recruit at D2 or D3 can typically be a major contributor by his sophomore NT, 35-55 by his junior NT, and lower than that may not be starter-caliber until he's a senior.  Of course it varies significantly with starting ratings and potentials and what exactly you want to develop in a player as well as playing time, starting, and other factors in growth and WE change.  But those are probably decent expectations for each of those WE ranges...

Posted by dacj501 on 9/4/2011 9:15:00 PM (view original):
zsap, I think I feel where you are trying to come from - but what bow is saying is largely true. Given reasonable (say 20+) WE and some starts and decent minutes, almost every recruit will reach their maximum potential. All those other factors affect how quickly they reach it. I can't speak for everyone, but I personally just project based upon scouting evals like bow said, and assume that the kid will indeed max out before graduating. Most times (95%+) this has been the case...

One thing as well is WE really just dictates how fast a recruit will reach his potential moreso than how high that potential is... assuming potential is the max he could reach with highest work ethic...


Roy Charles:
athleticism: big upside
rebounding: big upside
defensive fundamentals: big upside
shot blocking: limited upside
low post moves: big upside
perimeter shooting: big upside
ball handling: big upside
durability: big upside
ft shooting: big upside